Projecting the Remainder of Yankees' Aaron Judge's Career on 28th Birthday

On April 26, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge celebrates his 28th birthday. As we wait for him and the rest of MLB to resume baseball activities, it's as good a time as any to project the remainder of the young slugger's career.

Specifically, we'll examine five key questions related to Judge's health, statistical output, contract status and his place in Yankees and major league history.

This involves ample guesswork, obviously. The future is always in flux, especially in these uncertain times. But with a just-entering-his-prime player of Judge's caliber, a little crystal-ball gazing is both intriguing and warranted.

Can He Stay Healthy?

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After playing 155 games in his rookie season in 2017 and winning American League Rookie of the Year honors, Judge has managed just 214 contests the past two years combined while battling various injuries, including wrist, shoulder and oblique issues.

At the moment, as MLB looks to rebound from the coronavirus pandemic, Judge is recovering from a cracked rib.

"He's in Tampa," Yankees skipper Aaron Boone recently told YES Network's Meredith Marakovits (h/t Brendan Kuty of NJ Advance Media). "We're using this time, he’'s using this time to continue to heal. ... But as for where he's at exactly, we don't have anything for you on that yet."

Stuff happens, obviously. And Judge is young and strong enough to bounce back, though it could require a move from the outfield (where his defensive abilities are a plus) to designated hitter or a less-strenuous position such as first base.

At a certain point, he'll need to put together more than one fully healthy big league campaign to assuage concerns about the injury-prone label.

Does He Need to Cut Back on Strikeouts?

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In 2017, Judge led the American League with 52 home runs but also paced baseball with 208 strikeouts. In 112 games in 2018, he clubbed 27 homers and whiffed 152 times. In 2019, he hit 27 home runs and struck out 141 times across 102 games.

Does Judge need to cut down on his strikeout rate to be an elite slugger?

The short answer is probably not.

Between 2000 and 2019, MLB's strikeout percentage spiked from 16.5 percent to 23.0 percent. At the same time, home runs hit an all-time high of 6,776 leaguewide in '19. Strikeouts and dingers are rising in unison, and that doesn't appear to be a coincidence.

That said, here are the strikeout percentages of last season's American League and National League MVP winners juxtaposed against Judge's:

• Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels: 20.0 percent
• Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals: 13.3 percent
• Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees: 31.5 percent

That's not to say Judge can't achieve and maintain superstardom with a higher strikeout rate. He was the American League MVP runner up in 2017, after all. But reining in his swing-and-miss tendencies won't hurt his chances, either.

When Will the Yankees Lock Him Up Long Term?

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Judge and the Yankees avoided arbitration and settled on a deal that will pay him $8.5 million in 2020, and he isn't set to hit free agency until after the 2022 campaign.

Still, New York could ink him to a long-term deal sooner than that.

The Yanks will likely want to see at least a full season of healthy, productive play. If they do, it would make sense for them to buy out the remainder of Judge's arbitration years and then some.

Perhaps the closest comp in terms of age and service time is Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman, who signed a six year, $100 million extension with the 'Stros in March 2019.

The Yankees will almost surely wait until the COVID-19 pandemic has blown over, but at that point, an aggressive push to sign Judge should be near the top of their priority list.

And it would make sense for Judge as well considering his early injury history, even if he would be leaving a few dollars on the table.

Can He Challenge Any Major Home Run Records?

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Judge, as mentioned, hit 52 home runs in his 2017 rookie season. Could he vault past that and challenge Barry Bonds' all-time single-season record of 73?

Probably not, which is the same answer for every other player on the planet.

That said, you never know. Judge is the type of prodigious slugger who's capable of shattering expectations. In 2017, he hit 27 home runs by the end of June and another 15 in September and October. If not for a midseason swoon, he would have been at least within shouting distance of Bonds.

How about the all-time home run mark? Judge sits at 110, meaning he would have to average roughly 50 dingers a year through his age-40 season to match Bonds' record of 762.

So...probably not going to happen.

Where Will He Rank Among All-Time Yankees Sluggers?

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Now here's an interesting question. In terms of all-time Yankees home run leaders, Judge has a chance to eclipse some greats.

Alex Rodriguez (351), Yogi Berra (358) and Joe DiMaggio (361) are all within reach on the franchise list.

Lou Gehrig (493) is harder to catch but still catchable. Then there's Mickey Mantle (536) and, theoretically, Babe Ruth (659).

In 2017, Judge broke Ruth's Yankees record for homers hit at home (set in 1921 at the Polo Grounds). His 52 homers in '17 shattered the Yanks' rookie mark of 29 set by DiMaggio in 1936, and it only took Judge 82 games to pass Joltin' Joe. Ruth, Gehrig and others have put some Yanks records all but out of reach.

However, assuming he remains in pinstripes for the foreseeable future, Judge could stand in their company before he calls it a career.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.