NBA Free Agency 2020: Predicting Spots for DeMar DeRozan, Paul Millsap, More

There is a lot of exciting uncertainty for NBA teams during free agency. 

Of clubs most likely to have their 2021 impacted by 2020 free agency, the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets are presented with particularly intriguing possibilities. The Spurs replaced Kawhi Leonard with DeMar DeRozan in 2018 and now may be moving on from their wing again. The Nuggets, meanwhile, have an entire position group to figure out: the frontcourt.

Aside from Nikola Jokic, Denver has had three big men play at least 17 minutes per game this season: Jerami Grant (26.2 minutes per game), Paul Millsap (24.4) and Mason Plumlee (17.0). All three figure to be unrestricted free agents this offseason.

Here's how both environments, in the Texas sun and Colorado altitude, could change by 2021. And then, conversely, why Andre Drummond will be staying put in his new Cleveland home.

DeMar DeRozan's Departure: One Fewer Star in the Lone Star State

DeRozan is a fantastic basketball player, that much is certain. But his long-term fit in San Antonio is unclear.  

The 30-year-old wing has averaged 22.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists this season. He is a four-time All-Star and has definitely still got it. But his age and contract no longer fit a rebuilding San Antonio's title window.

DeRozan has a player option on a 2020-21 salary that would net him $27.7 million before hitting unrestricted free agency the season after. In March, Yahoo's Chris Haynes reported that sources expected DeRozan to decline that option if he and the Spurs couldn't agree on an extension. 

DeRozan downplayed those rumors, and, given the salary cap's uncertainty right now, he could easily opt in and ensure the near-$28 million for next season. Still, even if he does opt in, the wing is unlikely to hold San Antonio's fort for much longer.

While a prolific scorer, DeRozan hurts his team's spacing and isn't a plus defender. He's only taken 0.5 three-point attempts per game this season and hit just 26.7 percent of them. Even if he does accept his player option, the Spurs are likely to try to trade him to a team with cap space and an eagerness to begin forming character. 

Clubs with expected cap space, such as the Orlando Magic, New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks, could all benefit from DeRozan's fearless presence in 2021. The Magic, in particular, are an intriguing fit for DeRozan and should make the move. At 30-35 in 2019-20, Orlando sits at eighth in the East and remains a middling playoff team—just like the season prior in which they finished seventh.

The team has some talented veterans and young players, so DeRozan would help elevate the club to another level. Even if Orlando doesn't become a title contender, having him playing over Terrence Ross will give Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac room to develop alongside a proven star. And, by going all in on a complementary cast, the team will finally be able to decide if Aaron Gordon is a franchise cornerstone or not. 

Jokic Is Slow, So Millsap Has to Go

There are a lot of moving parts, but this feels easy to dissect from a basketball perspective. Jokic is Denver's future and has just one weakness: he lumbers. Millsap's versatility, IQ and spacing have long complemented Jokic's skills, but he is 35 years old and should not be a priority in free agency sans a team-friendly discount.

Grant, conversely, is 26 years old, rapidly improving and—ignoring caution that I may be getting ahead of myself—already a better fit in Denver's frontcourt given his athletic upside. Similarly, Plumlee has been a tremendous contributor for Denver precisely because of his overwhelming athleticism.

Millsap and Plumlee are both unrestricted free agents. The former is making $30 million this season and the latter $14 million. Both, at north of 30 years old, should cost less in 2021—but one is likely to leave.

Grant has always flown, skied and bullied his way around the court. But, in his first season with Denver, the 6'8" forward also hit 40 percent of his threes (a career high) on 3.4 attempts per game (second-most of his career).

He doesn't have Millsap's passing or as reliable a jumper (Millsap shot 44 percent from deep across 44 games this season), but his explosiveness better fills Denver's needs. Grant is likely to decline his player option on a $9.1 million contract, and the Nuggets should be the team to lock him down.  

Jokic is the future, and the 21-year-old Michael Porter Jr. may be in that future, too. But, for now, Denver should cement Grant as its starting 4. 

The team should only consider Millsap or Plumlee for depth if either takes a big enough discount to allow the front office a chance to improve its wings. Gary Harris has regressed and, while Will Barton is good, he should not have to play 33 minutes per game.

Although Millsap made $30 million last season, he still doesn't need to take a discount and remain in Denver. The most appealing fit would be in Phoenix, where the Suns can afford to buy a savvy vet to help shape their offense and lead their young stars. 

Like Denver, Phoenix has young talents with star potential (superstar potential in Devin Booker's case). Unlike Denver, Phoenix's veteran leadership feels mostly comprised of Kelly Oubre. Millsap has the IQ and skills to help elevate their offense and locker room, while providing the Suns' young assets with the blueprint for NBA success.

Drummond Takes the Sure Thing

Drummond can opt out of his player option on a $28.8 million contract for next season. But that would be silly.

He's just 26 years old and already averages a hefty double-double, 14.5 points and 13.8 rebounds, on his career. And when comparing his first four seasons to his most recent four, he has improved his free-throw shooting by an impressive 16.1 percent. But while Drummond's 57.5 percent rate from the line in 2019-20 looks good compared to his 37.1 percent mark as a rookie, he just hasn't progressed enough to get teams giddy about the prospect of breaking the bank for him.

As a limited shooter, Drummond isn't an exciting prospect for modern offenses. He gets on the glass and can get buckets, but nobody is paying north of $28 million for a player who restricts their offense and hasn't put it together at the charity stripe—especially not with an uncertain salary cap.

Drummond has only played eight games with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2019-20, and his per-game averages went down in nearly every single category. This is his chance to show teams how he performs in a new environment, and it hasn't been awe-inspiring just yet.

The two-time All Star and notorious glass clinician should opt in to his big money and take next season as an opportunity to show league executives exactly how much he can make improvements individually and to a collective unit, even in the chaos of Cleveland.