Notre Dame 7 Point Underdog vs Pitt: Irish 2-7 Against Spread

Notre Dame (6-3) opened a seven point underdog against Pittsburgh in their game Saturday night at Pittsburgh's Heinz Field.

For a team coming off their worst loss of the season, and having to go on the road to play No. 9 Pitt, the spread appears rather low.  One would have thought it would be closer to 10 points.

Notre Dame's been quite easy to handicap this season because they've usually been over-valued.  As a result, they're 2-7 against the spread with covers coming in the opener against Nevada and the USC game.

Why is the spread only seven points?  It's hard to say, but one would guess that on Saturday Notre Dame will be playing to save their season, to defend their football manhood, and also to save Charlie Weis' job for at least one more week.

Could it be that the odds makers feel that Pittsburgh will be overlooking the Irish in line of what lays ahead?

After Saturday's game with Notre Dame, Pittsburgh will play their most famous and bitter rival West Virginia, and then finish up with Cincinnati.  The Cincinnati game could determine who gets the Big East's automatic BCS bid.

These two games are huge for the Panthers, and seeing that the Notre Dame game has no effect on conference standing, it wont affect their chances to get the BCS bid.

Keeping these factors in mind, it still seems unlikely that Pitt will be taking Notre Dame lightly.  Saturday night, national television and a chance to notch a win against a team that holds a 44-18-1 series record should be more than enough to keep the Panthers focused.

If one just looks at Pittsburgh's resume it would appear that the spread is off, and should be closer to two touchdowns.

The Panthers (8-1) are on a five game win streak, they manhandled No. 23 USF 41-14 and they held the vaunted Navy running attack to 129 total yards.  Navy ran up 347 yards last week against the Irish.

The defense was expected to be one of the nation's best, and it's living up to its billing.

The offense has been the big surprise.  It's one of the best balanced that Notre Dame will face and features running back Deon Lewis and quarterback Bill Stull.

Saturday's game could provide the national exposure both are looking for to introduce them to the country, and possibly vault one of them into the race for the Heisman Trophy.

Stull is having a comparable year to Clausen.  The senior has thrown 17 touchdowns and only four picks.  His quarterback rating is 161.6, Clausen's is 162.9.

Every time Deon Lewis gets the ball he runs for almost six yards,  He's No. 6 in the country in total rushing yards.  What makes him so impressive—he's only a freshman.

Pittsburgh is a physical team and they've shown they can get to any quarterback.  If they can't sack him, they'll contain him.  They held USF's speedy BJ Daniels to 50 yards rushing on 15 carries. 

This could be Notre Dame's most important games of the year.  The phrase has a familiar ring to it but it's true—a win here can get them back on track, heading for a 9-3 season.

Although we've seen Irish fans jumping off the band wagon after the Navy loss, everything will be forgotten if Notre Dame can walk into Heinz Field and leave with a win.

EXTRA POINTS:

Although the Irish are playing for quite a lot, I can't see them being able to stay with Pitt.  Pitt is too balanced. If you shut down the run, the passing game will step up and if you shut down the pass, Deon Lewis will dominate.

PREDICTION:  Best Bet of the Year   Pitt 41-27