
Super Bowl 2020: Final Score, Fantasy Predictions for 49ers vs. Chiefs
It's easy to paint Super Bowl LIV as the proverbial showdown between the unstoppable force and the immovable object.
With a healthy Patrick Mahomes at the wheel, the Kansas City Chiefs can turn football games into track meets. And with Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Co. blazing down the sidelines while Travis Kelce races through the middle, the Chiefs are built to win track meets with ease.
With their first-rounders-only defensive front and a bruising rushing attack, the San Francisco 49ers often appear like a powerhouse from yesteryear. Their defensive linemen can live in the opponents' backfield. Their ball-carriers can go untouched into the opponents' secondary. It's the bully ball formula many teams have followed to the title round.
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But this isn't one explosive offense against one shut-down defense. In fact, each of these clubs ranked among the season's five highest scorers, and the Niners (second with 29.9 points per game) actually slotted higher than the Chiefs (fifth at 28.2). These were also two of the league's 10 best scoring defenses, and Kansas City (seventh, 19.3) fared better than San Fran (eighth, 19.4).
Why does all of this matter? Because folks who want a fantasy stake in Sunday's action need to know that each side has point-producers and stone walls. Diversification may be the key to fantasy success, then, and we'll break down the potential output of three marquee players below.
Super Bowl LIV
Date: Sunday, Feb. 2 at 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
TV: Fox
Spread: Chiefs -1 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
Final Score Prediction: 49ers 28, Chiefs 24
Fantasy Predictions
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Last year, Mahomes basically took a blowtorch to the stat sheet on a weekly basis. This season, his production was more subdued—and, at times, either shut down or at least limited by a knee injury.
But the reigning MVP is back to being a walking (and running) cheat code. His playoff numbers are ridiculous: 615 passing yards, 106 rushing yards, nine total touchdowns and zero turnovers.
If you're leaning toward the Chiefs, their explosive quarterback is probably the reason why.
"Patrick Mahomes, he's a generational player," Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Josh Allen told reporters. "You can't bet against a generational talent like that."
In theory, the Niners have the pieces needed to contain Mahomes. They can pressure him without bringing extra blitzers, then they have the speed and discipline along the back line to limit big plays.
But again, that's only to limit him. There is no stopping him. While he'll cost a premium in daily fantasy, it's hard to envision anyone feeling buyer's remorse.
Prediction: 267 passing yards, 45 rushing yards, three touchdowns, one interception
Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Raheem Mostert might be the best story going in sports right now. But considering human interest narratives don't earn extra fantasy points, we'll just point you in the direction of this superb profile from B/R's Tyler Dunne and keep this discussion centered on statistics.
In the NFC Championship Game, Mostert's were absurd. He carried the ball 29 times for 220 yards and four touchdowns. If you used him in a fantasy tournament, you might still be counting the winnings.
But what do those numbers mean moving forward? Maybe nothing. This is a Kyle Shanahan-coached backfield, of course, making Mostert just one of several backs who could erupt at any time. (Tevin Coleman, who rushed for a team-high 105 yards and two scores in the divisional round, is reportedly making progress with his shoulder injury.)
Mostert should get the first crack at Kansas City's defense, though, and he'll have a chance to do damage. The Chiefs allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game this season, the worst such ranking among playoff participants.
San Francisco will want to establish its running attack early and often, because that's what this offense does best and it will keep Mahomes off the field. Unless Shanahan shuffles the depth chart (which is always a distinct possibility), Mostert could be in line for a big day.
Prediction: 107 rushing yards, 12 receiving yards, two touchdowns
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
There are speedy players, there are burners and then there's Hill, who has blink-and-you-missed-him burst that makes him a touchdown threat every time he touches the ball. He had three games with multiple receiving touchdowns this season, and he had just five catches in all of them.
The Niners allow fewer big plays than anyone. They were the NFL's best defense in yards per game and yards per catch. Their pass rush is potent enough that quarterbacks often don't have much time for plays to develop, and even when they do, San Francisco's defenders in coverage combine speed, sound instincts and solid fundamentals into a formidable package.
If you're counting on Hill to break a few biggies, in other words, don't bet the farm on it.
But, as Hill's numbers showed above, he doesn't need many touches to reach fantasy relevance. All it takes is one misstep by a defender, and he's gone for six.
Look for the Chiefs to get him a few touches on underneath routes, both to see if he can break one and to shrink whatever cushion his defenders are giving him. Then, look for Mahomes to take a few shots over the top, at least one of which is almost certain to connect.
Hill's production can be tricky to project, since Kansas City has no shortage of receiving options. But his one-of-a-kind acceleration puts him a notch above the rest, and the Chiefs' desire to leverage that speed should produce a worthwhile fantasy line.
Prediction: Four receptions for 101 yards, one touchdown
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