Expert Answers to the Biggest Questions Surrounding CFB National Championship
College football will have a 15-0 national champion for a second consecutive year, but which group of Tigers will win the title?
It's no surprise to see Clemson in this game for the fourth time in five years. Dabo Swinney's guys won it all last year and were No. 1 in the preseason polls. Factor in the to-be-expected lack of resistance in the ACC, and it felt like a foregone conclusion that Clemson would at least reach the College Football Playoff.
For LSU, though, this is unfamiliar territory—not geographically, but philosophically. This is the program's first time in the "Final Four" since the playoff format was adopted six years ago. But lack of long-term experience on this stage might be cancelled out by the fact that this is LSU's seventh game of the season against an opponent ranked No. 9 or better.
It should be an outstanding game, and our college football experts—David Kenyon, Kerry Miller, Joel Reuter and Brad Shepard—are split on who will emerge victorious.
In addition to picking the champion, they were asked to answer some of the biggest questions heading into Monday, including:
- Does the game being in New Orleans matter?
- Will either secondary be able to slow down an elite offense?
- Could either pass rush make a significant impact?
- And has Clemson now eclipsed Alabama as the team to beat in college football?
Our experts are on the case.
Will the Game's Location (New Orleans) Be an Advantage for LSU?
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David Kenyon
To some degree, yes, but not a game-changing amount. Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables signals in plays himself, so it won't disrupt that side of the ball. And I'm certain Dabo Swinney trusts Trevor Lawrence to correctly relay any needed changes. The response to every big play will be heavily pro-LSU, but it's not a massive issue.
Kerry Miller
LSU is going to have more of a crowd edge than it would in a truly neutral location, but I can't imagine it's going to make any real difference. LSU can call it a home game if it wants, but the Superdome ain't Tiger Stadium, Clemson travels pretty darn well and Trevor Lawrence isn't likely to be rattled by the moment or the crowd.
Joel Reuter
According to data from VividSeats, the crowd is projected to be 62 percent LSU fans. For a neutral-site game, that's pretty significant. While I don't expect the crowd to be a deciding factor in the outcome of the game, it could provide LSU with some early momentum as it lookl to get off to a fast start.
Brad Shepard
There are a lot of people who will write off the location as no big deal, but they shouldn't. Few states support their teams like Louisiana does, and those fans will have been partying for days beforehand. It's going to be a one-sided crowd, and it will be loud and rowdy. Joe Burrow doesn't need any help, but he's going to have it.
Can Either Team Make a Legitimate Impact with Its Pass Rush?
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David Kenyon
Both defenses are too talented to not get some pressure on the opposing quarterback. But that's not necessarily a product of an overwhelming pass rush. Rather, it's because both defensive backfields are plenty capable of creating coverage sacks. It's not breaking news to suggest that the longer Lawrence or Burrow needs to hold the ball—despite their mobility—the higher the chances they'll get taken down occasionally.
Kerry Miller
This is the biggest X-factor of the game, in my humble opinion. The stats—Clemson has 42 sacks and has allowed 16, LSU is at 35 and 30, respectively—suggest Clemson will have an edge in this department, but we shall see. Ohio State sacked Lawrence three times in the Fiesta Bowl, and all three led to a punt. (Not to mention a fourth "sack" that would have resulted in a punt were it not for the targeting call against Shaun Wade.)
Both of these quarterbacks are surgical when they are comfortable in the pocket, but either Clemson's Isaiah Simmons or LSU's K'Lavon Chaisson could make the opposing gun-slinger extremely uncomfortable with a couple of blitzes.
Joel Reuter
LSU has had some trouble protecting the quarterback when facing elite opponents this season. Auburn tallied six sacks against the Tigers. Alabama had five. So it's not out of the question to think the Clemson pass rush could find its way into the backfield a few times. That said, neither team has an elite individual edge-rusher, so it seems unlikely the pass rush will have a legitimate impact.
Brad Shepard
This is where I see the game swinging in LSU's direction more than any other area besides Burrow's dominance. Linebackers K'Lavon Chaisson and Michael Divinity Jr. will be on the field together for the first time since October, and for just the sixth time in two seasons. The last time they played together, the two edge-rushers combined for 10 tackles, a quarterback hurry and a sack.
It has been a bit of an underachieving season for the Bayou Bengals' defense, but there's no shortage of talent. I expect them to get to Lawrence more often than Clemson can get to Burrow.
Will Clemson's Secondary Provide Some Resistance to Joe Burrow?
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David Kenyon
Yes. Between an injury, a suspension and first-half targeting ejection, Oklahoma simply didn't have the players needed on defense to compete with LSU. Clemson is deeper and healthier in the secondary, and linebacker Isaiah Simmons, a converted safety, offers another reliable option in coverage without needing to change defensive personnel.
Kerry Miller
The orange Tigers lead the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.5), passing yards allowed per game (151.5) and opposing passer efficiency rating (96.3). Clemson is also tied with both Ohio State and Kentucky for the fewest passing touchdowns allowed all season (nine). But Clemson isn't that much better than Alabama and Georgia in most of those categories, and Burrow sliced through those secondaries like a hot knife through butter. If either secondary is able to stifle the quarterback, my guess is it would be Clemson. However, I don't envision either quarterback struggling.
Joel Reuter
I doubt it. The two interceptions against Justin Fields look nice on paper, but the game-ending pick was arguably his receiver's fault. Fields still finished with 320 yards while completing 65.2 percent of his passes. Prior to that game, Clemson had not seen a top-tier quarterback this year, and certainly nothing remotely resembling the Heisman winner.
Brad Shepard
This is Clemson's strength, and Burrow will probably have some issues at times with the length, speed and physicality of this group. The ACC Tigers will provide Burrow with his stiffest test without a doubt. But Burrow is too good, and he's too unflappable to let a mistake derail him. I think Clemson will make a play or two on the back end, but the relentlessness, consistency and multiple elite targets for LSU will ultimately be too much for Clemson to overcome. Slow him a bit? Yes. Stop the passing attack? Not a chance.
Will LSU's Secondary Play as Well as It Has over the Past 4 Games?
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David Kenyon
It'll be quite good, but not as great statistically. Lawrence is easily the best passer LSU has faced since Tua Tagovailoa, and the Alabama star torched the secondary on a bum ankle to the tune of 418 passing yards and four touchdowns. To me, the decisive question is how often Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross win one-on-one battles with LSU freshman Derek Stingley Jr. He's really good, but he's not invincible.
Kerry Miller
Aside from Ole Miss, Arkansas and Georgia scoring in the fourth quarter when they were already trailing by at least 21 points, LSU hasn't allowed a passing touchdown since facing Tua Tagovailoa two months ago. Led by Grant Delpit and Derek Stingley Jr., this was supposed to be one of the best secondaries in the nation. Lackluster efforts against Texas, Florida and Alabama led to the perception that defense is LSU's Achilles heel, but the Tigers hit their stride late in the season.
That said, Georgia and Oklahoma were both crippled by injuries/suspensions and aren't as good as Clemson at full strength anyway. Trevor Lawrence, Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross and Travis Etienne out of the backfield could help Clemson become the fourth team to throw for at least 300 yards and four touchdowns against LSU.
Joel Reuter
It's hard to doubt them at this point. In their last three games, LSU has shut down Jalen Hurts (15/31, 217 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), Jake Fromm (20/42, 225 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) and Kellen Mond (10/30, 92 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT), who rank fourth, 18th and 25th in the nation in quarterback rating, respectively. Lawrence checks in at fifth on that list, and while he's going to put up some numbers, an inefficient game on par with what Hurts produced could be forthcoming.
Brad Shepard
When you look at the talent in the LSU secondary, it's impossible to believe they're 56th in passing yards allowed per game. But lately, these Tigers have been playing like they should. Why? Because Grant Delpit is finally healthy, Derek Stingley Jr. has turned into the all-world player everybody thought he would be and Kristian Fulton is the steadying senior force he was expected to be. It's hard to see Clemson completely failing to make plays through the air, so this game won't be as good as the last four. However, LSU will do enough back there to win.
What Happens If Clyde Edwards-Helaire Is Still Limited by His Hamstring Injury?
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David Kenyon
It sounds like Edwards-Helaire will be pretty close to 100 percent, so that's welcome news for LSU. If he is limited, though, LSU would be missing a valuable receiving threat. Chris Curry didn't look extremely comfortable in that area opposite Oklahoma, yet neither Tyrion Davis-Price nor John Emery Jr. can be expected to play major snaps if Curry is healthy.
Kerry Miller
Edwards-Helaire is expected to be fully available for this game, but hamstrings are a tricky business. If he re-aggravates that injury, a rushing attack led by Curry and/or Davis-Price is nowhere near as intimidating as one with the guy who had at least 180 yards from scrimmage in consecutive games against Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss and Arkansas. Clemson wouldn't go full prevent defense or anything, but it would be able to focus virtually all of its energy on trying to slow down Burrow. That would be a game-changer.
Joel Reuter
That would obviously be less than ideal, but LSU has other capable options. After Curry ran for a career-high 89 yards on 16 carries against Oklahoma, the starting spot is no longer in question if Edwards-Helaire is sidelined. Touted freshmen Davis-Price (64 carries, 295 yards, 6 TD) and Emery (39 carries, 188 yards, 4 TD) can also provide some support.
Brad Shepard
I'm a big believer in the "other guys" back there for LSU. Davis-Price, Curry and Emery Jr. can get the job done. There would definitely be a drop-off, but LSU can generate short-yardage plays by passing the ball to tight end Thaddeus Moss, and Burrow won't be denied on runs either. If Edwards-Helaire isn't 100 percent, it gives Clemson a much better chance to win. But I'm expecting him to play and be fine.
Which of the Many Elite Skill-Position Players Has the Best Performance?
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David Kenyon
I'm going to cheat slightly and say both Tee Higgins for Clemson and Ja'Marr Chase for LSU. I think LSU can contain Travis Etienne, while Clemson has enough options to limit Justin Jefferson's impact out of the slot.
Kerry Miller
Any one of LSU's four primary receiving targets could go off in this one, as could Edwards-Helaire if he's able to give it his all for four quarters. But my pick is Travis Etienne. Clemson's star tailback is averaging eight yards per carry and just had a career-high 98 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the Fiesta Bowl. And, if nothing else, he should have a lot left in the tank, considering the last time he received more than 20 touches in a game was in November 2018. Dabo Swinney will want to get him going early and often to keep LSU's defense honest.
Joel Reuter
Fred Biletnikoff Award winner Ja'Marr Chase was limited to a combined five catches for 102 yards and one touchdown in the games against Georgia and Oklahoma. Stopping him will be a focal point for Clemson as well. That should once again open things up for Justin Jefferson, who had four touchdowns by halftime of the Peach Bowl to help bury the Sooners. The 6'3" junior ranks third in the FBS in receptions (102) and yards (1,434) to go along with his 18 touchdowns. He's poised for another big game on Monday.
Brad Shepard
In the past couple of games, Ja'Marr Chase has seen extra attention, and it has led to career performances for Terrace Marshall in the SEC Championship Game and Justin Jefferson in the national semifinal. The way Jefferson has been piling up yards and catches (he has 102 on the season) lately, you know he's the top target for Burrow. I expect him to get a lot of shots again. You can't guard them all. So look for Jefferson to get a lot of targets and for Marshall to have multiple scoring receptions.
Will Clemson or LSU Be Crowned the National Champion?
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David Kenyon
Clemson wins by one point. I'm expecting a bend-don't-break kind of approach from the defense, but another strong showing in the red zone can propel Clemson to a nail-biting win. I say this fully acknowledging that, even in my head, the next-most-likely result is a comfortable LSU victory.
Kerry Miller
Even though I expected Ohio State to beat Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl and would still say the Buckeyes played better in that game, I'm going with Clemson. The Tigers from South Carolina have been here many times before and know what to expect from a mental/emotional perspective. They've also had the better defense throughout this season and are more likely to benefit from a big turnover-related swing. But I can't say I would be shocked if Burrow has a banner day in an LSU win.
Joel Reuter
I don't think there's any stopping this LSU team. That said, if anyone is going to do it on college football's biggest stage, it's the defending champions. LSU has the best quarterback in the nation and an offense that has been incredible all season. Lawrence can hang his hat on last year's performance in the national championship game as proof he can perform when the lights are brightest, but I think it's going to be a back-and-forth battle with LSU coming out on top in the end. LSU 35, Clemson 31.
Brad Shepard
By now, you know I'm rolling with Ed Orgeron's Bayou Bengals. I love Clemson and think Dabo Swinney's group is a battle-tested, talented team that is capable of repeating as champions. But nobody has even slowed down Joe Burrow this year, and he's going to cap the greatest modern season ever by a quarterback with a national title. LSU's defense is underrated, and it will be by far the most talented unit Trevor Lawrence has played all year. The Bayou Bengals will make a couple of big game-changers on that side of the ball, and Burrow will make them pay. I like LSU winning 41-31.
Win or Lose, Has Clemson Bypassed Alabama in College Football 'Dynasty' Debate?
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David Kenyon
Sure. No matter the result here, Clemson smashed Alabama last year, advanced further in 2019 and should enter 2020 as the championship favorite. Lawrence is back, Clemson just defeated Ohio State and both Burrow and Tagovailoa are gone. So, if Alabama overtakes Clemson next year, cool. But for now, it is the team to beat.
Kerry Miller
With a win, I say yes. Feel free to tell me all about the differences between the ACC and the SEC, but Clemson is on the precipice of back-to-back undefeated seasons while Alabama has had two such campaigns in the last 40 years. It would also be Clemson's third national championship in four years, two of which came against Alabama. Alabama still has longevity on its side, boasting a 150-17 record over the past 12 seasons, while Clemson was barely qualifying for bowl games at the start of that run. But I would take the past five seasons of Clemson over any five-year stretch Alabama has had under Nick Saban.
Joel Reuter
I think the lack of competition in the ACC during this run that Clemson is on makes it tough to compare the two. Yes, earning the "dynasty" label is all about making it to the national championship game, but it's a lot easier to do that when you're not facing a ranked team week in and week out. I also think Alabama has just as good a chance as anyone of winning it all next year, so it's not like its window has closed. Clemson is squarely in the conversation for college football's premier team. So is Alabama. Do with that what you will.
Brad Shepard
Yes they have, and they aren't going anywhere. Dabo Swinney has piled up six more 5-star prospects in 2020's class, per 247Sports. With Lawrence back another year to go along with Justyn Ross, Amari Rodgers and others, there will be plenty of playmakers. It's not out of the question for Swinney to keep this thing rolling a few more years. Alabama isn't going away, but the Tide have to go through the Tigers now.
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