Week 11 College Football Picks from WhatIfSports.com

Each Monday morning, we preview every college football FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview are located here .

The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.



Game of the Week: No. 20 Iowa, 15 @ No. 11 Ohio State 21

The Big Ten race was supposed to come down to one game.

It just wasn't this one.

Heading into the season, many thought that the Big Ten champion would be decided by Ohio State's trip to Penn State. Instead, that game—combined with a surprise—simply set up a different winner-take-all matchup one week later as Iowa travels to Ohio State with a trip to the Rose Bowl up for grabs.

The Hawkeyes were in the conference's driver's seat until this past weekend when their 13-game winning streak came to a screeching halt against Northwestern. The Wildcats knocked out Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi, ending the Hawkeyes' dreams of finding their way into the BCS title game.

Now they'll most probably need a victory this week to land spot in a BCS bowl game. And they'll likely have to do so without Stanzi. His numbers certainly weren't earth-shattering, but Stanzi had a knack for helping the Hawkeyes find a way to win.

Iowa will now look to James Vandenberg to jumpstart the Hawkeyes' offense. Against the 37th toughest schedule to-date, Iowa ranks near the bottom of the national rankings with just 3.4 yards per carry.

The Hawkeyes' passing marks are a little better at 7.5 yards per attempt, but they've thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns. Thus, for the Hawkeyes to succeed, the game will probably come down to how well Iowa can limit Ohio State quarterback Terrell Pryor and the Buckeyes offense. The Hawkeyes give up just over 3.5 yards per carry and rank among the best in the nation, allowing less than 5.5 yards per pass attempt.

While Iowa will try to bounce back from its first loss of the season, Ohio State is coming off its best victory of the year, a road win over Penn State that helped create this winner-take-all game.

Pryor has had an inconsistent season, but threw for two touchdowns and ran for another against the Nittany Lions. Playing against the 46th toughest schedule, Ohio State hasn't had quite the prolific ground game that it has brought to the table in the past, but the Buckeyes are still averaging 4.7 yards per carry and, while they rank in the 90's in passing yards per game, that statistic is a bit deceiving as they average 7.5 yards per attempt.

The Buckeyes really make their mark on defense. They rank third in the country in rushing defense, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry, and they rank fifth in the country through the air, allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt.

In a battle of stiff defenses and top-20 teams in our most recent power rankings , it's no surprise that the total stays under 40 points in the Battle for the Big Ten. And in 10,000 simulations, the team that won that game that many thought would decide the league's race last week wins the game that will actually decide the champion this time around. The Buckeyes win exactly two-thirds of the time (66.7 percent) and by an average score of 21-15.

Other Notable Games in Week 11

One of the best games this week will be played under the Friday night lights as West Virginia travels to Cincinnati looking to shake up the BCS and Big East standings.

But the Bearcats remain undefeated in the country's most competitive conference 73.1 percent of the time, 33-24.

That game will kick off a monster weekend for the Big East, though we could be saying those same words every week from here on out. Pittsburgh goes out of conference for somewhat of a statement game, looking to take down Notre Dame. The Panthers move to 9-1 with a win more than 70 percent of the time and by a 10-point average advantage.

South Florida and Rutgers face off in a game where the loser can forget about the conference race. The Bulls take care of the Scarlet Knights on the road 61.7 percent of the time and by just two points.

Oregon suffered a setback against Stanford last weekend, but still sits in the Pac-10 driver's seat. That said, the race is still a bit of a mess.

The Ducks stay in the top spot 78.6 percent of the time this week, taking care of Arizona State by two touchdowns. Stanford, looking to spring its second consecutive upset, comes up just short as USC takes care of the Cardinal 61.2 percent of the time and by an average score of 33-29.

And Arizona, which has flown under the radar but could take the league by storm against Oregon next week, moves to 5-1 in conference by winning 82.1 percent of the time with an 11-point average victory over Cal.

And as we hit the final month of the season, we remain on undefeated watch, but with one less team to keep an eye on after Iowa's loss.

Perhaps the biggest game of the entire week in terms of the BCS picture will take place in Fort Worth, Texas, where Utah may have the best remaining shot of ending TCU's undefeated run.

The Horned Frogs remain the top BCS buster candidate by winning 76.1 percent of the time and by a score of 35-24.

In the SEC, Florida's run continues 86.1 percent of the time with a two-touchdown victory against South Carolina, and Alabama remains unbeaten 95.0 percent of the time at Mississippi State.

Boise State goes to 10-0 94.0 percent of the time against a bowl-eligible Idaho team. And Texas wins at Baylor 94.5 percent of the time.

This means that there is a 46.7 percent chance that all six remaining FBS unbeatens win this week.

Last week, we hit our "Lock of the Week" to improve our ATS record to 7-2 on the year in both the NFL and college football. To see other picks like our Upset of the Week and Lock of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

College Football Week 11
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Florida State Seminoles	43.3	25
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	56.7	29
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	68.2	21
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	31.8	16
Boston College Eagles	77.6	20
@ Virginia Cavaliers	22.4	12
Clemson Tigers	89.6	28
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	10.4	14
Virginia Tech Hokies	90.0	31
@ Maryland Terrapins	10.0	14
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	95.0	39
@ Duke Blue Devils	5.0	17
West Virginia Mountaineers	26.9	24
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	73.1	33
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	29.4	27
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	70.6	37
Syracuse Orange	38.3	15
@ Louisville Cardinals	61.7	21
South Florida Bulls	61.7	27
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	38.3	25
South Dakota State Jackrabbits	5.0	7
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	95.0	29
Indiana Hoosiers	17.9	18
@ Penn State Nittany Lions	82.1	32
Michigan Wolverines	24.9	20
@ Wisconsin Badgers	75.1	34
Iowa Hawkeyes	33.3	15
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	66.7	21
Northwestern Wildcats	39.8	18
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	60.2	23
Michigan State Spartans	64.7	24
@ Purdue Boilermakers	35.3	21
Ball State Cardinals	5.0	10
@ Northern Illinois Huskies	95.0	35
Toledo Rockets	26.9	19
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	73.1	30
Ohio Bobcats	62.7	24
@ Buffalo Bulls	37.3	20
Bowling Green Falcons	69.7	18
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	30.3	13
Temple Owls	90.5	27
@ Akron Zips	9.5	13
Western Michigan Broncos	91.5	32
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles	8.5	15
Washington Huskies	15.9	18
@ Oregon State Beavers	84.1	34
Arizona State Sun Devils	21.4	14
@ Oregon Ducks	78.6	27
Stanford Cardinal	38.8	29
@ USC Trojans	61.2	33
Arizona Wildcats	82.1	32
@ California Golden Bears	17.9	21
UCLA Bruins	88.6	28
@ Washington State Cougars	11.4	14
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	5.0	9
@ LSU Tigers	95.0	33
Troy Trojans	23.9	26
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	76.1	37
Tennessee Volunteers	60.2	23
@ Mississippi Rebels	39.8	21
Auburn Tigers	60.7	28
@ Georgia Bulldogs	39.3	27
Kentucky Wildcats	73.1	22
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	26.9	14
Florida Gators	86.1	28
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	13.9	14
Alabama Crimson Tide	95.0	36
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	5.0	10
Idaho Vandals	6.0	21
@ Boise State Broncos	94.0	44
New Mexico State Aggies	9.5	14
@ Hawaii Warriors	90.5	38
San Jose State Spartans	20.9	18
@ Utah State Aggies	79.1	31
Fresno State Bulldogs	33.8	34
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	66.2	42
Delaware Blue Hens	5.0	9
@ Navy Midshipmen	95.0	38
Virginia Military Keydets	20.4	9
@ Army Black Knights	79.6	20
Texas Tech Red Raiders	30.8	21
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	69.2	28
Texas A&M Aggies	31.3	16
@ Oklahoma Sooners	68.7	23
Missouri Tigers	33.8	19
@ Kansas State Wildcats	66.2	26
Colorado Buffaloes	60.7	24
@ Iowa State Cyclones	39.3	22
Nebraska Cornhuskers	69.2	23
@ Kansas Jayhawks	30.8	17
Texas Longhorns	94.5	31
@ Baylor Bears	5.5	15
UTEP Miners	30.8	18
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs	69.2	26
East Carolina Pirates	33.8	22
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	66.2	28
Tulane Green Wave	73.1	32
@ Rice Owls	26.9	26
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	89.6	31
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	10.4	15
UAB Blazers	90.0	33
@ Memphis Tigers	10.0	19
Houston Cougars	94.5	38
@ UCF Knights	5.5	20
UNLV Rebels	7.5	11
@ Air Force Falcons	92.5	31
Utah Utes	23.9	24
@ TCU Horned Frogs	76.1	35
Wyoming Cowboys	69.2	20
@ San Diego State Aztecs	30.8	17
Brigham Young Cougars	95.0	39
@ New Mexico Lobos	5.0	13
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	18.4	15
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	81.6	33
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	33.3	15
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	66.7	23
Arkansas State Red Wolves	75.6	27
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	24.4	20
North Texas Mean Green	80.6	25
@ Florida International Golden Panthers	19.4	15

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling—it is all under your control. Start at D-III and try to work your way up to winning the D-I championship at your favorite school.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at [e-mail] . Thanks!