Buying or Selling NBA's Biggest Breakout Players

The 2019-20 NBA season was always destined to be one for the ages.

The injury bug dismantled the Golden State Warriors dynasty (or at least put it on a one-year hiatus). Dynamic duos sprouted up across the hoops landscape with Hollywood as the backdrop, where the Los Angeles Lakers paired LeBron James with Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Clippers countered by adding both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.

But who knew this would also be the year of basketball breakouts?

North of the border, the Toronto Raptors are arguably witnessing the rise of the league's next two-way star. The Charlotte Hornets have a second-round sophomore skyrocketing from the back end of their rotation to the team lead in points and assists. The new face of the Dallas Mavericks has gone from claiming Rookie of the Year honors to crashing the MVP conversation.

Sudden surges are sights to behold, but sustainability is the key to NBA stardom. With that in mind, we're here to either buy into the hype or sell off the stocks of the Association's rising stars.

Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat

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Freed from the massive shadow of Hassan Whiteside, Bam Adebayo has arguably matched Jimmy Butler's importance in the Miami Heat's rise to become an Eastern Conference sleeper.

The all-encompassing label of Swiss Army knife might have been invented for Adebayo. He ranks fourth or better among Heat rotation players in points, field-goal shooting, assists, steals, blocks and boards, the latter two of which he leads by healthy margins.

He's a full-fledged five-tool defensive presence.

When he switches onto a perimeter player, he shadows otherwise unstoppable forces using an otherworldly blend of length and lateral quickness to keep in front of them. When he stays near the basket, he erases shots above the rim, stops them from even being attempted or finishes possessions with timely boards. When he's away from the ball...well, he never really is, as he's third among centers in deflections.

His unique gifts might be easiest to spot when he's on the basketball, as he handles and distributes like no 6'9", 255-pounder should have the right to. The list of centers averaging more assists is Nikola Jokic...and that's it. Miami scoring at the second-highest rate on dribble handoffs comes back to Adebayo, who reads the floor like a seasoned quarterback despite being a 22-year-old first-time starter.

The question is whether he can improve enough as a scorer to fill the second-star role in South Beach. His 39.3 jump-shot percentage and 68.6 free-throw percentage make us skeptical of his ceiling in that area unless proven otherwise.

Verdict: Buying his rise as a key cog, selling his upside as the second-best player on a contender.

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

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Luka Doncic's freshman campaign was so electric that it almost feels unfair to label his follow-up season as a breakout. All he did then was join Oscar Robertson as the only NBA freshmen to average at least 20 points, seven rebounds and five assists.

But excluding Doncic from this discussion would shortchange his meteoric rise. He's playing almost identical minutes to last season and averaging 7.8 more points, 2.9 additional assists and 1.7 more rebounds. His field-goal percentage is up 4.4 points, and his free-throw conversion rate has jumped 9.3.

Last season, he ranked 46th in the all-encompassing player efficiency rating and was sandwiched between DeMar DeRozan and Jrue Holiday. Now, he's third in the entire league, one rung behind James Harden and one above Anthony Davis.

"He's not Magic Johnson ... but it's Magic Johnson-like in the sense that he sees the floor in that same way," San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said, per Dallas Basketball's Mike Fisher. "He's got a real intuitive sense, and you can't teach that."

This is where we remind you that Doncic is 20 bleepin' years old. His trajectory already points to him becoming the first Luka, not the next anyone. (If you wanted to follow the Magic comp, then note that Johnson's career-high output was 23.9 points per game in his age-27 season.)

Verdict: Fully buying Doncic's capability to serve as the centerpiece of a contender.

Devonte' Graham, Charlotte Hornets

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

Saying Devonte' Graham is obliterating all expectations for his sophomore run makes the faulty assumption that any ever existed. He played just 676 minutes as a rookie. His 10.3 PER placed him 301st among the 361 players who logged 500-plus minutes.

If the Charlotte Hornets knew what they had in Graham, would they have bothered throwing a three-year, $56.7 million deal at Terry Rozier? Only they can answer that question, but we'll just point out it took all of 10 games for Graham to force his way into the opening lineup and bump Rozier off the ball.

Graham's numbers are silly, and not just for a second-round revelation. Only LeBron James and Ben Simmons have created more points with assists. Only James Harden has splashed more threes. This looks like modern point guard play at its finest.

"He's a guy who just defies all odds," Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell, Graham's prep teammate, said, per Eric Walden of the Salt Lake Tribune. "If people don't know him yet, they definitely will. He's pretty special."

It's impossible to overstate the degree of Graham's transformation. Last season, it was fair to wonder whether he would last longer than his rookie contract. Now, he's possibly the sturdiest pillar supporting Charlotte's rebuild.

We don't want to rain on his parade. This has been awesome to witness. But his lack of size and explosiveness loom as tricky obstacles to overcome. He's surviving almost exclusively on jumpers, he's a 26th percentile isolation scorer, and his 35.4 two-point percentage ranks 300th among the 305 players with 50-plus inside-the-arc attempts.

Verdict: Selling Graham as a rising star, but buying him as a long-term starter or sixth-man spark plug.

Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Brandon Ingram is unofficially the 1,674,328th piece of evidence that player development doesn't happen on a linear timeline.

The second overall pick in 2016, his first three seasons with the Los Angeles Lakers sandwiched wildly encouraging flashes among frustrating periods of inconsistency, inefficiency and injury. His career shooting rates entering this campaign were 45.8 percent from the field (solid), 32.9 percent from three (subpar) and 66.2 percent at the line (gross). He was still awaiting his first league-average PER.

But an offseason move to the Big Easy unlocked something.

He's been a completely different player with the New Orleans Pelicans, thrashing his previous bests almost across the board, including 25.3 points per game, 40.9 percent three-point shooting, 85.7 percent foul shooting and a way-above-average 22.0 PER. His 60.6 true shooting percentage sits eighth among the Association's 32 players averaging 20-plus points.

His shooting profile looks like he spent his summer in Basketball Analytics 101. He's never taken more threes or fewer shots from the mid-range. He's also acing the impressive high-wire act of pairing career highs in usage rate and assist percentage with a career-low turnover rate.

But it can't all be positives, right? Breakouts always demand a certain level of skepticism when they occur on a cellar-dweller, and the punchless Pellies have been no different with or without him. He isn't remotely close to being the shutdown defender his physical gifts suggest he should be.

He's clearly improving, but we need more than two months to erase three years' worth of question marks.

Verdict: Selling Ingram as an elite but buying him as a sidekick on a good team or a third wheel on a great one.

Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Pascal Siakam is the counterpoint to that whole thing about player growth not happening in a straight line. If you look at his year-over-year production, it's basically one giant arrow pointing toward the sky.

The 27th pull from the 2016 talent grab, he landed in Toronto with inexhaustible energy, a nose for the glass and intriguing defensive tools. He was a part-time player in Year 1 (despite making 38 starts), then a reliable reserve as a sophomore. Last season, he emerged as a do-it-all glue guy and captured the Most Improved Player award.

Now, he's looking to become the award's first two-time winner, as he appeared en route to two-way stardom before a groin injury delayed his launch. His shot attempts have nearly doubled. He's added more than eight points to his scoring average. His three-point tries have more than doubled, and he's still boosted his success rate by 2.3 percentage points. He's even shooting 39.5 percent on above-the-break triples.

He was already an all-league-caliber defender. Now, he's doubling as an offensive fulcrum. He can bully smaller defenders in the post and blow past bigger ones on the perimeter. His handle is beyond slick for a 6'9", 230-pound power forward, and since he can take his own boards coast-to-coast, he's becoming one of the league's premier transition attackers (5.8 points per game in transition, fifth-highest).

"It's always something I've been able to do: make sure I work on my craft every single day," Siakam told Doug Smith of the Toronto Star. "That's my mindset. I have to find a way to catch up to all the people that started playing when they were like five years old."

Oh yeah, Siakam didn't take up the sport until he was 16. So while some 25-year-olds might worry about bumping into their ceiling, his could be several seasons into the future.

His field-goal shooting has cooled off (45.7 percent, previous low was 50.2), and he doesn't draw foul calls like a star (4.7 attempts per game). Those might be nitpicky critiques, but nitpicking becomes a must when someone is angling for a top-10 spot in the league.

Verdict: Buying Siakam as a two-way star but not buying him as a superstar just yet.

All stats, unless otherwise noted, used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference and are current through games played Dec. 31.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.