Week 16 NFL Picks: Prop Bets Advice, Vegas Odds, Spreads and Predictions

Kristopher Knox@@kris_knoxFeatured ColumnistDecember 19, 2019

Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald, left, battles San Francisco 49ers offensive tackle Justin Skule, right, during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 13, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Alex Gallardo)
Alex Gallardo/Associated Press

Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season kicks off with three Saturday games, all of which carry potential playoff implications.

The Houston Texans will look to maintain their lead in the AFC South while battling the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots face each other in a game that could clinch the AFC East for New England. In the nightcap, the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers will play in one of the most important games of the week.

A loss by the Rams will end their hopes of securing a wild-card berth. A loss by the 49ers will severely hurt their chances of retaking the NFC West lead.

Here, we'll examine some of the most interesting prop bets for Saturday, along with score predictions for every game and the early odds and over/unders from Caesars.


Week 16 Lines, Over/Unders and Predictions

Houston Texans (-3, 49.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay 28-26

Buffalo Bills (+6.5, 37.5) at New England Patriots: New England 22-19

Los Angeles Rams (+6.5, 45) at San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco 26-22

Baltimore Ravens (-10, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns: Baltimore 31-22

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 38) at New York Jets: Pittsburgh 24-17

Carolina Panthers (+7, 46) at Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis 26-18

Cincinnati Bengals (+1, 46.5) at Miami Dolphins: Cincinnati 20-17

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7, 46.5) at Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta 28-20

New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 50.5) at Tennessee Titans: New Orleans 31-23

New York Giants (+2.5, 42) at Washington Redskins: New York 22-18

Detroit Lions (+7, 38.5) at Denver Broncos: Denver 24-16

Oakland Raiders (+7, 45.5) at Los Angeles Chargers: Los Angeles 28-21

Arizona Cardinals (+9.5, 51) at Seattle Seahawks: Seattle 33-23

Dallas Cowboys (no line) at Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas 30-20

Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 45) at Chicago Bears: Kansas City 24-17

Green Bay Packers (+4.5, 46) at Minnesota Vikings: Green Bay 28-22


Jameis Winston Over 291.5 Passing Yards

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

The first prop we're going to examine (found at Oddschecker) involves Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston and the possibility of him reaching 291.5 passing yards.

At first glance, the under may seem like the most sensible option here. Wide receiver Mike Evans is done for the year, and fellow Buccaneers wideout Chris Godwin may be out well. Yet, Winston still has quality receiving options, like tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, and wideout Breshad Perriman.

Perriman caught five passes for 113 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Detroit Lions.

It will help that the Texans have a pass defense that has allowed an average of 266.1 passing yards this season, fifth-most in the league.

Winston has passed for at least 292 yards 10 times in 2019, including each of his last two games. Expect him to do so again versus the Texans.


James White Over 57.5 Receiving Yards

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

Running back James White remains one of the most important members of the Patriots offense. Not only is he a factor in the running game, he's also one of the most vital pieces of the passing attack. Aside from Julian Edelman, Tom Brady doesn't have any downfield receiving threats he can rely on.

"They are not getting any separation, they are not getting open, and they don't really understand the game," NFL Media's Deion Sanders said on NFL Network a couple of weeks ago.

The receiving corps hasn't miraculously improved since Sanders' comments, and White—who has 588 receiving yards on the season—should again play a big role in the passing game plan. That role could prove to be even bigger as New England looks to supplement the run game against Buffalo's 10th-ranked run defense.

This is why the prop of White topping 57.5 receiving yards, found at Oddschecker, is enticing.


Todd Gurley Over 56.5 Rushing Yards

Roger Steinman/Associated Press

The last prop we're going to examine (again from Oddschecker) involves Rams running back Todd Gurley reaching 57 rushing yards. This is a tricky one to predict because the 49ers secondary has been banged up, which could prompt Los Angeles to lean on Jared Goff and the passing game.

Defensive backs Richard Sherman, K'Waun Williams and Jaquiski Tartt all missed last week's game against the Atlanta Falcons. The 49ers lost that game and surrendered 210 passing yards to Matt Ryan.

It's worth noting, though, that both Sherman and Williams have been full participants in practice this week. If both return, the 49ers secondary should be closer to what it was in Week 6. Goff passed for a mere 78 yards in that game, while the Rams lost 20-7.

Gurley didn't play in the first matchup between these two teams, but he has topped 57 rushing yards in two of his last three games. He only got 11 carries against the Dallas Cowboys last week, as the Rams fell behind early.

Expect Los Angeles to stick with the run more against San Francisco, and expect Gurley to have a solid day in a losing effort.