Predicting Where Every Top Available MLB Star Will Sign Post-Winter Meetings
The MLB free-agent market is considerably thinner than it was a week ago, thanks to extremely active winter meetings relative to years past.
The following players have all signed since the beginning of the week:
- SP Gerrit Cole (9/$324M with NYY)
- SP Stephen Strasburg (7/$245M with WAS)
- 3B Anthony Rendon (7/$245M with LAA)
- SP Tanner Roark (2/$24M with TOR)
- SS Didi Gregorius (1/$14M with PHI)
- RP Blake Treinen (1/$10M with LAD)
- SP Rick Porcello (1/$10M with NYM)
- SP Josh Lindblom (3/$9.125M with MIL)
- SP Kevin Gausman (1/$9M with SF)
- SP Martin Perez (1/$6M with BOS)
- SP Michael Wacha (1/$3M with NYM)
Add to that the earlier signings of Zack Wheeler (5/$118M with PHI), Yasmani Grandal (4/$73M with CWS), Mike Moustakas (4/$64M with CIN), Will Smith (3/$40M with ATL), Drew Pomeranz (4/$34M with SDP), Kyle Gibson (3/$28M with TEX) and Cole Hamels (1/$18M), and much of the star power from this year's free-agent class is no longer available.
With that said, there are still a handful of impact players searching for a new home.
Ahead is a look at the top six players still available on the open market, with predictions on where they will end up signing this offseason.
SP Dallas Keuchel
1 of 6
After whiffing on Gerrit Cole, the Los Angeles Angels still need to address a starting rotation that finished 29th in ERA (5.64). Rookie Griffin Canning led the team with six quality starts.
The addition of Dylan Bundy in a trade with the Baltimore Orioles and the impending return of Shohei Ohtani to the mound will help, but the Halos need to do more if they're serious about contending in 2020.
Here's an overview of the current projected six-man rotation, courtesy of Roster Resource:
- LHP Andrew Heaney: 95.1 IP, 4.91 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 1.29 WHIP
- RHP Dylan Bundy: 161.2 IP, 4.79 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 1.36 WHIP
- RHP Griffin Canning: 90.1 IP, 4.58 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.22 WHIP
- LHP Patrick Sandoval: 39.1 IP, 5.03 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 1.37 WHIP
- RHP Jaime Barria: 82.2 IP, 6.42 ERA, 6.23 FIP, 1.44 WHIP
- RHP Shohei Ohtani: Injured, did not pitch
Adding former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel to the mix would be a nice next step.
The 31-year-old did not sign until June 7 last season, and went on to post a 3.75 ERA in 112.2 innings for the Atlanta Braves.
He's no longer an ace-caliber starter, but he's a quality innings eater, having averaged 190 innings per season in the five seasons prior to his abridged 2019 campaign.
Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times also wisely noted that a ground-ball pitcher like Keuchel would play well in front of an infield that includes David Fletcher (10 DRS in '19), Andrelton Simmons (14 DRS in '19) and Anthony Rendon (2 DRS in '19).
OF Marcell Ozuna
2 of 6
The Cincinnati Reds have already added one big bat to the lineup this offseason, signing slugger Mike Moustakas to a four-year, $64 million deal.
According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Cincinnati is still looking to add to its offense, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna has emerged as a target.
Ozuna, 29, posted a 107 OPS+ with 29 home runs and 89 RBI in a 2.2 WAR season with the St. Louis Cardinals. Over the past four seasons, he has a 119 OPS+ and has averaged 28 home runs, 94 RBI and 3.4 WAR, playing primarily left field during that time.
He declined a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, so signing him will require draft pick compensation, but that should not be a hurdle for a Reds team committed to contending in 2020.
The team currently projects to have an outfield of Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel and Aristides Aquino, with Travis Jankowski filling the glove-first fourth outfielder role off the bench. However, if the Reds move Senzel back to the infield in some capacity, it could open up a spot for Ozuna.
The biggest question would be who plays center field. The Reds gave Winker some time out there during spring training last year, and he wound up manning the position for 132 innings during the regular season.
"It felt great. It's a position that I feel I can play," Winker told reporters during spring training. "It excites me that the coaches believe that I can go play center field. I've done it before for [first base coach] Delino [DeShields] down in Triple-A. Honestly, it was a lot of fun."
If they can make the defensive side work, Ozuna would slot in nicely alongside Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Moustakas in the middle of the lineup.
OF Nicholas Castellanos
3 of 6
After trading Nomar Mazara to the Chicago White Sox earlier this week, the Texas Rangers now look like a viable landing spot for outfielder Nicholas Castellanos.
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported Tuesday that the Rangers have "checked in" on the slugging corner outfielder and noted they're open to adding a bat somewhere other than third base.
In the context of replacing Mazara, there's no question that Castellanos would be an upgrade to the offense:
- Castellanos: 664 PA, 121 OPS+, .289/.337/.525, 88 XBH (27 HR)
- Mazara: 469 PA, 96 OPS+, .268/.318/.469, 47 XBH (19 HR)
Still only 27 years old, Castellanos is younger than most of the free-agent class, which makes him a more appealing option for a multiyear deal.
While his overall numbers last season were strong, he was particularly good down the stretch following a trade to the Chicago Cubs. He hit .321/.356/.646 with 21 doubles and 16 home runs in 225 plate appearances.
It's unclear whether the Rangers' new stadium will play as the same hitter's paradise that their old stadium did. With that said, Castellanos relies more on gap power than over-the-fence pop, as evidenced by his MLB-leading 58 doubles last season.
Regardless of how the new park plays, he can be an asset to the Rangers' lineup.
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SP Hyun-Jin Ryu
4 of 6
The Los Angeles Dodgers were one of the finalists in the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, so they're clearly searching for starting pitching help.
Along with Hyun-Jin Ryu's foray into free agency, the Dodgers also stand to lose veteran lefty Rich Hill, leaving the projected starting rotation as follows:
- LHP Clayton Kershaw
- RHP Walker Buehler
- RHP Kenta Maeda
- LHP Julio Urias
- RHP Tony Gonsolin/Dustin May
That group has a lot of upside, but it also has some question marks.
Maeda and Urias both spent significant time in the bullpen last year, while Gonsolin and May have only 74.2 innings combined at the MLB level.
After missing out on Cole, the Dodgers "will now shift their focus" to longtime rival Madison Bumgarner, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
However, a reunion with Ryu might still be the most likely outcome when the dust settles.
The 32-year-old has had a tough time staying healthy throughout his career, but he managed to log 182.2 innings last season, leading the NL in ERA (2.32) and ERA+ (179) in the process.
A two-year contract with a salary approaching $20 million might be enough to get a deal done, and it would be money well spent to bring some needed stability to the starting staff.
SP Madison Bumgarner
5 of 6
With Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler all off the market, the next big pitching domino to fall might be Madison Bumgarner.
The Minnesota Twins are one of several teams that has been connected to Bumgarner this offseason. Jon Heyman of MLB Network described them as "heavy" on the big left-hander earlier this week.
That interest should come as no surprise. Even with Jake Odorizzi accepting his qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, the Twins still have multiple holes to fill in the starting rotation.
Here's how things stack up today, according to Roster Resource:
- RHP Jose Berrios
- RHP Jake Odorizzi
- LHP Devin Smeltzer
- RHP Randy Dobnak
- LHP Lewis Thorpe
Ideally, the team would add at least two more veteran arms, leaving the unproven trio of Smeltzer (49.0 IP, 4.58 FIP), Dobnak (28.1 IP, 2.90 FIP) and Thorpe (27.2 IP, 3.47 FIP) to battle it out for the No. 5 starter job.
To take that point one step further, Berrios and Odorizzi have pitched a combined 12 innings in the postseason. A battle-tested veteran like Bumgarner could help the Twins to take the next step in October.
Are they willing to shell out north of $100 million to get a deal done?
3B Josh Donaldson
6 of 6
Now that Anthony Rendon has signed a seven-year, $245 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels, the market for Josh Donaldson could quickly unfold.
The Nationals, Rangers, Dodgers and Twins are among the teams that have shown interest, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
With that said, the Atlanta Braves might still be the favorites, per Rosenthal:
"All things being equal, Donaldson’s preference is to return to the Braves, according to sources with knowledge of his thinking. But in free agency, all things are not necessarily equal. This contract almost certainly will be Donaldson’s last big deal, and he is seeking the largest possible guarantee, sources say."
After an injury-plagued 2018 campaign, Donaldson bounced back in a big way last season, posting a 127 OPS+ with 33 doubles and 37 home runs in a 6.1 WAR season.
The Braves have already had a busy offseason, signing Will Smith (3/$40M), Cole Hamels (1/$18M) and Travis d'Arnaud (2/$16M), while also re-signing Chris Martin (2/$14M), Nick Markakis (1/$4M), Tyler Flowers (1/$4M) and Darren O'Day (1/$2.25M).
However, after a disappointing second half from Austin Riley, there is no obvious in-house solution to filling the void at third base.
Bringing Donaldson back and simultaneously keeping him away from a division rival in the Nationals and a fellow NL contender in the Dodgers would benefit them twofold.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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