The NFL has hit its final stretch, and teams are jockeying for playoff position or playing for pride. As for fans, we’re at that final phase of the bulking period—primed to fatten our wallets and cultivate mass for our bank accounts.
The three Thanksgiving games have passed, but there are still 13 games left to go this week, and we’ve got the odds, spreads and picks for them all. Each game’s spread and over/unders, courtesy of Caesars, are listed below, along with a projected score.
While I’ll respect your time and won’t spend it diving into each game, three of Week 13’s most notable matchups are analyzed here: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks.
NFL Week 13, Lines, Over/Unders and Predictions
Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 38 O/U) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cleveland 28-17
Green Bay Packers (-6.0, 44 O/U) at New York Giants: Green Bay 35-17
New York Jets (-3.0, 41.5 O/U) at Cincinnati Bengals: New York 28-20
Philadelphia Eagles (-10.0, 45.0 O/U) at Miami Dolphins: Philadelphia 35-21
San Francisco 49ers (+5.5, 45.5 O/U) at Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore 31-21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.0, 47.0 O/U) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville 31-28
Tennessee Titans (+1.5, 43.0 O/U) at Indianapolis Colts: Tennessee 28-20
Washington National Football Team (+10.0, 38.5 O/U) at Carolina Panthers: Carolina 24-17
Los Angeles Rams (-3.0, 47.0 O/U) at Arizona Cardinals: Arizona 35-28
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 38.0 O/U) at Denver Broncos: Los Angeles 27-13
Oakland Raiders (+10.5, 50.5 O/U) at Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City 35-21
New England Patriots (-3.0, 46.0 O/U) at Houston Texans: Houston 24-21
Minnesota Vikings (+3.0, 50.0 O/U) at Seattle Seahawks: Minnesota 28-24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 28-31
Vegas expects Tampa Bay to win this matchup by at least three points but for each team to hit at least 20 points. Considering Jacksonville’s three-game losing streak, in which they’ve averaged 12 points, that likelihood makes sense.
While the Jaguars have lost to the Titans, Colts and Texans, the Buccaneers have bookended their last three games with wins against the Falcons and Cardinals, with a loss to the Saints in between. Tampa Bay’s offense has hit a groove, averaging 27.3 points over those contests. But its defense, much like Jacksonville’s, has struggled, letting up 27.7 points on average (as Jacksonville has let up a whopping 33.7).
Still, Jacksonville’s issues can be attributed to a defense that has displayed inconsistent effort, possibly because its offense’s passing attack has felt disheartening. Tampa Bay’s secondary is not atrocious because of effort, though. It’s just a weak unit. Nick Foles, in his third game back, should be able to capitalize on a bevy of capable pass-catchers and reignite the Jacksonville offense in this matchup. If that’s the case, then the defense, which should have already been foaming at the mouth in anticipation of the league’s most turnover-prone quarterback, will ramp up and disprove Vegas’ lack of confidence.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 28-35
What happens when two of the league’s worst defenses meet in the desert? The innovative, disruptive uptempo offense wins. And, in 2019, that offense is Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid, not Sean McVay’s unprotected glass house.
If Kyler Murray’s hamstring woes are enough to keep him out, then this is all for naught. If he’s fine, though, then K1 should live outside of the pocket, away from Aaron Donald, and pick apart a Rams secondary that is all mouth and no bite.
Both teams should be able to move the ball, but Arizona’s versatile scheme on offense is better equipped to deal with Los Angeles’ defense than the Rams are against Chandler Jones’ outside pressure and Arizona’s swarming, albeit undisciplined, secondary.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: 28-24
Bye weeks don’t usually tilt the scale, but Minnesota’s couldn’t have come at a more impactful time. Although the Vikings only have one loss since Week 5, an extended break is of two-pronged benefit to them: Dalvin Cook, the best pure running back in the NFL, gets to rehabilitate a body that has yet to make it through a full season, and the Minnesota defense gets as much time as possible to prepare for Russell Wilson, who is playing like the league’s most untouchable mismatch.
On a four-game winning streak, including an overtime win against the 49ers, Seattle is hard to outduel. But, with nagging injuries across the team, its armor may be dented enough to fall against the Vikings. Tyler Lockett, Jacob Hollister and Jadeveon Clowney all have injuries worth monitoring. Minnesota’s Adam Thielen does too, but the team has comfortably played around his absence.
Injury progress could alter projections, but after the season’s early passing drought, the Vikings are now a more balanced, and deeper, team than Seattle, especially considering Chris Carson’s recent fumbling woes and DK Metcalf’s drops.
Even if all Seahawks play, the Seahawks should, once again, live and die on the stout shoulders of Wilson’s heroics. But those heroics should be hard to pull off against a team that has had nearly half of a month preparing to limit it.