NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: CAROLINA PANTHERS +13 VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

ROCKBOXSPORTS.COM

It seems inevitable that some of the big dogs are going to start covering as Vegas extends lines further and further upward due to the avalanche of public money coming in on teams like the Colts, Pats, and Saints. At rockboxsports.com, we suspect that there will be less and less to be gained by laying the points as the season wears on and plenty of value to be found with certain double-digit dogs in the right situations.

Witness the case the of the 2007 Pats who came out of the gates covering their first eight games against the spread, generating a public frenzy of Pats money as Vegas jacked lines through the roof to protect itself. Result? From week nine onwards the Pats went 2-9 against the spread including playoffs, failing to cover their last six in a row.

This year’s Saints may not be quite in the class of the ’07 Pats in terms of public support, but they’re close. Drew Brees and company opened the season with six straight covers, but the worm may have begun its turn on Monday night as the Falcons back-door covered an inflated eleven point spread. No signs this week that the public is dissuaded, though, as money continues to pour in on New Orleans. We expect that there will be similar value in going against the Saints down the stretch as seen with the ’07 Pats.

Moreover, the Panthers have been quietly improving and actually seem to match up well this Sunday. John Fox’s crew is 3-1 since their bye-week and is coming of an impressive dismantling of Arizona last week. The Carolina defense has been improving steadily as the players grow accustomed to the new scheme installed this season. NFC Defensive Player of the Week Julius Peppers is starting look like his old self, with 23 tackles, six sacks, eight quarterback pressures, two forced fumbles and an interception return for a touchdown in the last four games.

On offense, the running game, the bread-and-butter for last season’s playoff squad, looked as strong as ever last week. If the Saints have a weakness this year, it may be defending the run. Few teams have had the opportunity to exploit this weakness, however, because they get behind early. This is when the opportunistic Saints pass defense goes to work. However, the Panthers have the kind of running game that can set the tempo and burn clock while keeping the Saints offense on the sidelines. If the Panthers defense can hold their own- and they are #1 in the NFL against the pass- this game could be a lot closer than one might assume.

Keep in mind that Jake Delhomme, a Louisiana native, is 8-2 lifetime against the Saints and has NEVER lost in the Superdome. In fact, THE PANTHERS HAVEN’T LOST IN THE SUPERDOME SINCE 2001. That’s not to say they’ll win this week, but it does tell us that they won’t be intimidated by the frenzied dome atmosphere.

One of the problems that the Pats faced in 2007 in terms of covering spreads was that opposing teams increasingly viewed their matchups with New England as their own personal Super Bowls, playing with great emotion and giving the Pats their best shot. This dynamic, in combination with inflated point spreads, translates into a lot of covering by the dogs. This is precisely the situation that the Saints will face this week. Coming off a big Monday-nighter against the Falcons, they will face a Panthers team that will be playing with great emotion against their undefeated division rival. If the Saints cannot match this emotion, they may find themselves in a dogfight.

THREE STARS: CAROLINA +13