World Series 2019 Odds: Breaking Down the Chances of All 8 Remaining Teams
There might be no greater fool's errand than trying to predict the MLB postseason.
But that has never stopped us before.
Rather than a specific round-by-round breakdown, what follows is a more broad attempt to lay down the odds for the eight Division Series participants' chances of winning the World Series.
Each team's biggest strengths and weaknesses were highlighted to provide context to those odds and to also give a preview of sorts for the month ahead.
Which of the eight teams left standing has the best chance of winning it all in 2019?
Let's find out.
Tampa Bay Rays (96-66, AL Wild Card)
1 of 8
Strengths
As is generally the case when the Tampa Bay Rays are contenders, pitching has been the driving force. In fact, they led the AL with a 3.65 team ERA.
While the Charlie Morton-led starting rotation has been solid, it's the bullpen that has been their biggest strength, leading the majors with a 3.66 ERA while also pitching an MLB-high 772 innings. It's a largely unheralded group that has anchored the relief corps:
- Emilio Pagan: 66 G, 20/28 SV, 2.31 ERA, 12.3 K/9
- Diego Castillo: 65 G, 17 HLD, 3.41 ERA, 10.6 K/9
- Nick Anderson: 23 G, 9 HLD, 2.11 ERA, 17.3 K/9
- Chaz Roe: 71 G, 25 HLD, 4.06 ERA, 11.5 K/9
- Oliver Drake: 50 G, 13 HLD, 3.21 ERA, 11.3 K/9
- Colin Poche: 51 G, 16 HLD, 4.70 ERA, 12.5 K/9
With a true four-man rotation of Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough, the team won't be forced to use an opener during the ALDS, which will give manager Kevin Cash the freedom to deploy that arsenal of relievers as he sees fit.
Weaknesses
The pitching staff will need to be sharp, because the Rays are not going to put many crooked numbers on the scoreboard. They ranked 18th in the majors in runs per game (4.74), 14th in OPS (.757) and 21st in home runs (217).
As good as the bullpen has been overall, the unit has also had some trouble nailing down saves, converting just 63.01 percent of opportunities. That ranked 16th in the majors, and only the Dodgers (60.27 percent) were worse among the eight teams left standing.
Odds: 18/1
Washington Nationals (93-69, NL Wild Card)
2 of 8
Strengths
The Washington Nationals led the National League with 87 quality starts, and the 3.53 ERA posted by their starting pitchers was second in the majors. Strong starting pitching can carry a team in the postseason, and the Nationals' postseason rotation looks extremely strong:
- Max Scherzer: 11-7, 2.92 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 243 K, 172.1 IP
- Stephen Strasburg: 18-6, 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 251 K, 209.0 IP
- Patrick Corbin: 14-7, 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 238 K, 202.0 IP
- Anibal Sanchez: 11-8, 3.85 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 134 K, 166.0 IP
Offensively, they averaged a healthy 5.4 runs per game, with Anthony Rendon (1.010 OPS, 34 HR, 126 RBI) and Juan Soto (.949 OPS, 34 HR, 110 RBI) anchoring the attack.
They are also capable of being disruptive on the bases, finishing tied for third in the majors with 116 steals. Trea Turner (35) and Victor Robles (28) led the way.
Weaknesses
The Nationals bullpen finished dead last in the majors with a 5.66 ERA.
While they added Daniel Hudson (24 G, 1.44 ERA), Fernando Rodney (38 G, 4.05 ERA) and Hunter Strickland (24 G, 5.14 ERA) to the mix in the second half, the relief corps is still far from a strength. The starters will need to pitch deep into games if the Nationals are going to make an October run.
Odds: 12-1
Minnesota Twins (101-61, AL Central Champions)
3 of 8
Strengths
The Minnesota Twins could out-slug the opposition with a stacked offense that led the majors with 307 home runs and finished second in OPS (.832) and runs per game (5.8).
For the first time in MLB history, five players from the same team reached 30 home runs:
- Nelson Cruz: 41
- Max Kepler: 36
- Miguel Sano: 34
- Eddie Rosario: 32
- Mitch Garver: 31
Meanwhile, the relief corps is a largely anonymous group, but guys like Zack Littell (21 G, 1.14 ERA) and Tyler Duffey (33 G, 1.53 ERA) put together strong second-half performances, and the addition of Sergio Romo (27 G, 3.18 ERA) helped solidify the late-inning situation.
Weaknesses
The second-half struggles of Martin Perez (14 GS, 6.27 ERA) and Kyle Gibson (12 GS, 5.92 ERA) and suspension of Michael Pineda has left the Twins with a two-man rotation of Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi heading into the postseason.
It will fall to guys like Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Cody Stashak to eat up innings, and leaning heavily on those unheralded rookies could be a recipe for disaster.
Odds: 10-1
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St. Louis Cardinals (91-71, NL Central Champions)
4 of 8
Strengths
The emergence of Jack Flaherty has given the St. Louis Cardinals a bona fide ace to anchor the starting rotation in October. The 23-year-old has a pristine 0.91 ERA and 0.71 WHIP with a .142 opponents' batting average in 15 starts since the All-Star break.
To that point, the starting staff finished fifth in the majors with a 3.78 ERA, and the postseason rotation now looks like a legitimate strength:
- Jack Flaherty: 11-8, 2.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 231 K, 196.1 IP
- Adam Wainwright: 14-10, 4.19 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 153 K, 171.2 IP
- Miles Mikolas: 9-14, 4.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 144 K, 184.0 IP
- Dakota Hudson: 16-7, 3.35 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 136 K, 174.2 IP
While the offense has been inconsistent at times, Tommy Edman (115 PA, .350 BA, 1.078 OPS, 16 XBH) was a revelation in September, and the team averaged five runs per game over the final month of the year.
Weaknesses
Carlos Martinez (24/27 SV) has locked down the closer job and strikeout artist Giovanny Gallegos (19 HLD, 11.3 K/9) has been terrific, but the Cardinals have had some trouble bridging the gap from the starters to that late-inning duo.
They have also struggled a bit away from Busch Stadium with a 41-40 record and a plus-eight run differential on the road. Can this team stay hot in October after looking ordinary for much of the year?
Odds: 8-1
Atlanta Braves (97-65, NL East Champions)
5 of 8
Strengths
Last season, the Atlanta Braves were the new kids in town when they unexpectedly won the NL East after a 90-loss season in 2017. This time around, this is a more experienced bunch.
On the offensive side of things, the top four spots in the Atlanta lineup have been as dangerous as any team's in baseball:
The emergence of Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), a strong return from Mike Foltynewicz following a minor league demotion and the midseason addition of Dallas Keuchel have bolstered the starting rotation. Meanwhile, Mark Melancon (11/11 SV) has brought some needed stability to the closer's role.
Weaknesses
Acuna's health is a question mark going into October after he missed the final four games of the regular season with a hip injury. He's expected to play in the NLDS, but he might not be the same dynamic threat on the bases after stealing 37 bags during the regular season.
Though Melancon has converted all of his save chances, he's done it while posting a 3.86 ERA, so he's been far from a shutdown option. The bullpen as a whole is shaky, and that will put a lot of pressure on the starting staff.
Odds: 8-1
New York Yankees (103-59, AL East Champions)
6 of 8
Strengths
The New York Yankees are finally close to fully healthy after a record-setting number of players hit the injured list throughout the course of the season.
The offense led the majors in runs per game (5.82) and finished second in home runs (306) and third in OPS (.829). While they didn't have five players reach 30 home runs like the Twins, they had a whopping 14 different players slug double-digit long balls:
- 30+: Gleyber Torres (38), Gary Sanchez (34)
- 20+: Brett Gardner (28), Aaron Judge (27), DJ LeMahieu (26), Gio Urshela (21), Luke Voit (21)
- 10+: Didi Gregorius (16), Edwin Encarnacion (13), Mike Tauchman (13), Mike Ford (12), Clint Frazier (12), Aaron Hicks (12), Cameron Maybin (11)
The return of Luis Severino (3 GS, 1.50 ERA, 12.0 IP) and a strong September from James Paxton (5 GS, 1.05 ERA, 25.2 IP) have the rotation looking up, while the late-inning foursome of Tommy Kahnle, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino and Aroldis Chapman is capable of shortening games.
Weaknesses
While Severino is back healthy and Paxton is pitching well, Masahiro Tanaka struggled to a 5.26 ERA in 13 starts after the All-Star break, and the No. 4 starter spot in October is up in the air.
There are also still questions about the health of Gary Sanchez (groin strain) and Edwin Encarnacion (oblique strain), and the production of Didi Gregorius (.190 BA, .627 OPS in September). Can this team avoid the injury bug that has plagued it all year?
Odds: 6-1
Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56, NL West Champions)
7 of 8
Strengths
The Los Angeles Dodgers have an extremely well-balanced roster. They led the majors in ERA (3.37) and WHIP (1.10) while also pacing the NL in runs per game (5.5), home runs (279) and OPS (.810).
To that point, they had eight players worth at least 3.0 WAR:
- Cody Bellinger: 9.0
- Max Muncy: 5.7
- Hyun-Jin Ryu: 5.3
- Corey Seager: 4.0
- Justin Turner: 3.7
- Clayton Kershaw: 3.6
- Joc Pederson: 3.3
- Alex Verdugo: 3.1
With seven straight division titles, this is an experienced group, and with a 59-22 record at Dodger Stadium, securing home-field advantage could prove to be a significant factor.
Weaknesses
Can the Dodgers trust their bullpen?
Closer Kenley Jansen has been leaned on heavily in the postseason the past two years, appearing in 22 of the team's 31 games while posting a 1.65 ERA and logging 27.1 innings.
However, he hasn't been the same elite-level closer this year, pitching to a 3.71 ERA with eight blown saves. Adam Kolarek has been a huge addition, and multi-inning relievers Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May will be a major factor, but this bullpen still looks like a red flag.
Odds: 5-1
Houston Astros (107-55, AL West Champions)
8 of 8
Strengths
It's hard to find a hole in the Houston Astros roster.
That said, the starting rotation looks like the biggest strength regardless of who fills the No. 4 starter spot, with a trio of frontline veterans:
- Justin Verlander: 21-6, 2.58 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 300 K, 223.0 IP
- Gerrit Cole: 20-5, 2.50 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 326 K, 212.1 IP
- Zack Greinke: 18-5, 2.93 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 187 K, 208.2 IP
The bullpen finished third in the majors with a 3.75 ERA and is anchored by Will Harris (26 HLD, 1.50 ERA), Ryan Pressly (31 HLD, 2.32 ERA) and Roberto Osuna (38 SV, 2.63 ERA). Expect to see a lot of that trio in October.
And let's not forget the offense averaged 5.68 runs per game and finished among the MLB leaders in home runs (288, third) and OPS (.848, first). Alex Bregman (1.015 OPS, 41 HR, 112 RBI) is a legitimate AL MVP candidate and Yordan Alvarez (1.067 OPS, 27 HR, 78 RBI) should run away with AL Rookie of the Year honors after debuting on June 9.
This team is absolutely stacked.
Weaknesses
The health of Carlos Correa is probably the biggest question mark for the Astros.
He posted a .926 OPS with 21 home runs but was limited to just 75 games. A sore back sidelined him for all but three games in September and has left his October outlook in question.
Beyond that, the September struggles of Wade Miley (5 GS, 16.68 ERA) and relative inexperience of Jose Urquidy (41.0 career innings) leave the No. 4 starter spot in question.
Odds: 3-1
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