Anthony Randolph Is Most Effective When Playing Big

The Golden State Warriors 2008 first round draft pick (No. 14 overall), Anthony Randolph, has been predominatly lingering on the bench to start the ’09-’10 season. 

His 14.0 minutes per game for the first three games of the season are hardly what Bay Area fans were hoping to see to start a promising sophomore season from the extremely athletic 6’11’’ big man.

As a rookie, Randolph was used sporadically during the first half of the season with a handful of DNP’s.

But, once the Warriors were mostly out of the playoff run, he got 22.8 minutes per game in March, and 32.3 minutes per game in April. 

This late season time on the court is at least partially watered down playing time, but Randolph had some spectacular lines: 

3/1 vs. Utah:  20 points, 8 rebounds, 4 blocks, 1 turnover

3/13 vs. Dallas: 14 points, 7 rebounds, 3 blocks, 3 steals, 0 turnovers

3/24 vs. Spurs: 13 points, 9 rebounds, 5 blocks, 0 turnovers

3/28 vs. Denver:  10 points, 14 rebounds, 4 blocks, 3 steals, 3 turnovers

4/03 vs. Hornets: 20 points, 15 rebounds, 1 block, 1 turnover

4/05 vs. Kings: 8 points, 13 rebounds, 2 blocks, 4 steals, 0 turnovers

4/13 vs. Spurs:  24 points, 16 rebounds, 1 block, 4 steals, 2 turnovers

He's had games were he's posted impressive block totals and he trailed only Ronny Turiaf in blocks per minute with .065 (Turiaf-.099, Biedrins- .052).   However, blocks can be a deceiving statistic, because in order to tally a large number of blocks, the player usually has to leave his feet and that can leave him susceptible to pump-fakes. 

Watching Randolph, he often comes out of nowhere to stuff a defender, but sometimes he is leaving his own man and he can jump at inopportune times.

This point is further backed up by the fact that opponents’ out produced Randolph by a 2.0 net Roland Rating, according to 82 games last season, with Randolph accumulating only 28 percent of positional court time.  On the other hand, the lack of front-court size often leads to more help defense.

Still, Randolph’s freaky length, tremendous wingspan, and superb leaping ability have fans wanting more.  He is only 20 years old and last year’s late season surge has been but a tease for the Warriors faithful this season. 

Why isn’t Coach Nelson utilizing Randolph more often in his lineups??

One possible answer:  his high Usage Rate.

Usage Rate is a stat from John Hollinger of ESPN (the creator of PER).  It takes into account field goals attempted, free throws attempted, assists, turnovers, and pace (see link for formula). 

Randolph has a Usage Rate of 21.6 so far this season, up from 19.5 in ’08-‘09.  The slight up tick after three games this year is due to his increase in free throw attempts, from 2.2 to 4.7 (a good thing), but he is controlling the ball much more than the other big men on the team. 

Coach Nelson sees Randolph as a possible center in the future and at the very least a very strong power forward.  Visions of Anthony controlling the ball at the three and matching up against smaller opponents seem to be fading, especially considering Golden States’ relative lack of size at the big positions and strong depth at the smaller positions. 

Comparing Usage Rates after three games for the 2009-2010 season:

Ellis- 26.9

Maggette- 26.3

Jackson- 22.4

Randolph- 21.6 (19.5 in ’08-’09)

Azubuike- 20.7

Curry- 14.1

Morrow- 13.7

Turiaf- 9.8

Biedrins- 9.7

Moore- 6.9

When on the court, Randolph is controlling the ball like he is a guard.  By comparison, no other big man on the Warriors is topping 10.0. 

The 34-year old Mikki Moore is playing a lot without the ball and he has gotten some solid playing time with 15.0 minutes per game.  While Randolph is a potential superstar, he is also very young and his game isn‘t yet cozily fitted to his talents. 

Randolph's turnover rate is the main source of his problem and he probably shouldn’t be racking up abundant assist totals either.  With 15.3 percent of his possessions ending in a turnover last season, he ranked 52 out of 74 power forwards (also keeping in mind his large possession percentage).

In terms of raw turnovers, he amassed 1.3 turnovers per game in only 17.9 minutes and that's accounting for his steady improvement, especially toward the back end of the season.  This year, his turnover per minutes has regressed to 1.3 in 14.0 minutes per game.

For a player that puts up such amazing rebound rates and can potentially be a shut down defender, Randolph can help the team by playing more without the ball.  Last year, he boarded the ball at a rate of 0.32 rebounds per minute and this season he is on a similar pace with 0.33 rebounds per minute (Biedrins bested Randolph last year with 0.37 rebounds per minute). 

So far this year, Randolph’s Hollinger Rebounding Rate of 19.4 puts him sixth among NBA power forwards. 

Monta Ellis has shown prolific passing improvement with an assist hike from 3.7 per game last year to 6.7 per game this year.  With Ellis and the addition of Stephen Curry’s 6.7 assists per game, there is little need for Randolph to be controlling the ball for long periods of time. 

If Randolph finds a guard after a defensive rebound and sprints down court; he will likely end up getting a lot more fast break dunks, put-backs, lay-ups, and short jumpers.  That strategy would reduce team turnovers, improve Randolph’s rebound and point totals, and raise his field goal percentages (.357 in '09-'10 and .462 in '08-'09)

Currently, Randolph has 8 points per game, 4.7 rebounds per game, 0.7 blocks per game, 1.3 turnovers per game and zero steals.  With improved defense and less ball control, he can be a monster on the boards and wreak havoc on less athletic forwards.  Then we may see some repeats of those absurdly dominant stat lines that he posted back in March and April of his rookie season and more court time to boot.