Breaking Down Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers; Mayhem vs. Jake Shields

All this week, I've been breaking down Saturday's big card, fight by fight. Today, I'll be focusing on the Strikeforce Middleweight title bout between the host of MTV's Bully Beatdown, Jason "Mayhem" Miller, and former Elite XC Welterweight champion Jake Shields.

Jake Shields

At the ripe old age of 30, Jake Shields is in his fighting prime. Currently boasting a record of 23-4-1, Shields hasn't been defeated in almost four years. In those four years, Shields has pulled off 12 consecutive victories against what can be considered mostly top level competition—fighters like Dave Menne, Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Nick Thompson, Paul Daley, and most recently Robbie Lawler.

Captain of the "Scrap Pack", Shields is the leader of five-man team trained by Cesar Gracie.

Those five men are Shields, Nick Diaz, Nate Diaz, Gilbert Melendez, and Dave Terrell. Jake holds a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, something that he uses in his fights extensively. 

Jake is considered one of the best Welterweights in the world and the best Welterweight currently not fighting under the Zuffa banner. You might be confused right now because I said this fight was for the Middleweight championship, and he's top Welterweight. Both are true.

Jakes last fight was a catchweight fight against former Elite XC Middleweight champion Robbie Lawler. They fought at 182 pounds, three pounds shy of the Middelweight maximum. Shields was considered an underdog do to Lawlers size advantage, but Shields discounted that by using his far superior Jiu-Jitsu, submitting Lawler in just two minutes.

Keys To Victory

1) Pace Yourself —Mayhem is 4-4 when his fights go to a decision. You are 10-3. You have the advantage in the cardio category, use that to win.

2) You Can Try If You Want— Mayhem has been submitted one time in his career. He has 13 victories by submission, more than you, surprisingly enough. That loss came about seven years ago—you might want to just forget it. Jacare Souza couldn't submit Mayhem, but he did get the decision win.

3) That Being Said— If you are actively pursuing those submissions throughout the fight, you might pull off the victory or even catch Mayhem if he's tired. Your best shot at a victory stands at a decision, but there's nothing stopping you from at least trying to submit him.

Jason Miller

Known as Mayhem to all his fans, Jason Miller has become one the most recognizable personalities in all of MMA. A lot of that has to do with his popular MTV show, Bully Beatdown. Although the fans of the show have never seen Mayhem step in the cage on the show, rest assured, this guy can fight.

With an impressive record of 22-6-1 Mayhem is still one of those "under the radar" fighters in MMA.

He's not considered top tier, but he's not considered a gatekeeper either. In the last six years, Mayhem has lost three times. Ready for the names? Georges St. Pierre, Frank Trigg, and Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza. Can't knock him for those losses.

Miller has been finished only two times in his career. One was by soccer kicks from Frank Trigg (illegal in Strikeforce), and the other by guillotine seven years ago, a loss that he would avenge in his next fight. Jacare Souza (who trains with Anderson Silva, the Nogueira brothers, and Lyoto Machida), couldn't submit Mayhem even though he tried throughout their fight. 

Mayhem, aside from Bully Beatdown, is probably most famous for his bloody battle with Georges St. Pierre at UFC 52. Mayhem was abused for 15 minutes, but the most impressive part of the fight was that he could not be finished. At two points in the fight, it looked like GSP was going to submit Mayhem, but Miller used his superior Jiu-Jitsu and heart to stay in the fight.

Keys To Victory

1) Prove Yourself— A while back you said that you would "beat the piss out of [Jake Shields]." Jake didn't take to kindly to that. You talk a big game Mayhem, we all know you've got skills, you just have to show America what you've got.

2) You've Got The Heart— In the heart category, I give it to you. Id say you guys have pretty close Jiu-Jitsu, but put in a dangerous spot, I see Jake losing first. It's up to you to get him to that dangerous spot. Good luck.

3) You are Crazy— Push the pace. Go after him. You've only been stopped twice and you've never been knocked out under Strikeforce rules. This is your chance to put yourself on everybody's radar. Get in Jakes head, you know you can.

Prediction

I can't see Jake being finished. I can't see Mayhem getting finished, either. It's really up to the judges for who's going to win this fight. The judges don't seem to like Mayhem, as shown by his 4-4 record with them. I see this fight going all five rounds, and I see Jake Shields being crowned the new Strikeforce Middlweight Champion.