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Matt Miller's Biggest Hits and Misses Looking Back at the 2018 NFL Draft
June 27, 2019
With nine NFL draft classes in the books as the lead analyst at Bleacher Report, I'm often asked who my biggest hits and misses are from that time.
There's no dodging the Trent Richardson miss—that one still stings—but there are others, like Tank Carradine, who went to my beloved San Francisco 49ers and never got back to his pre-injury levels of talent. Justin Gilbert, the prototype cornerback from Oklahoma State whom the Browns selected in the top 10 before he quickly flamed out, still ranks as a big black mark on my scouting grade card, too.
There are a lot of misses in almost a decade. Think of how many each NFL team has in that same amount of time. There are also a few hits, but any evaluator or analyst worth their paycheck will tell you those don't stick with you as much. When asked on radio or a podcast for my biggest hits, it's tough to remember which ones are different from the rest of the scouting pack.
To improve as an evaluator, you must self-scout. Thankfully my editors agree, which is why we've put together a package of my hits and misses from the 2018 draft. Yes, it's still a little too early to call any player a true hit or miss, but looking at where each player was ranked predraft, where they were drafted and how they've performed after one season does give a good look at value.
For the purposes of this article, any player drafted 10 or more spots off of where I ranked or mocked them is considered a miss. Let the trolling begin!
Hits
Quenton Nelson, Indianapolis Colts
Draft position: No. 6 overall
Predraft rank: No. 3 overall, No. 5 overall mock draft
Nelson was drafted only slightly lower than where he was projected, but in his rookie season, the former Notre Dame guard became an All-Pro, went viral and managed to rank as arguably the best interior offensive lineman in the NFL while keeping Andrew Luck upright and putting the Colts back into the playoffs.
That's a pretty big impact for a rookie.
In his predraft ranking, Nelson received the best grade ever given to an interior offensive lineman on my grading scale. He was flawless as a prospect due to his amazing intelligence, awareness, strength and athleticism.
There might have been laughs around the NFL when the Colts selected an offensive guard at No. 6 overall, but Nelson is already a top player at his position and helped solve a massive issue along the Indianapolis offensive line in his first season.
It might seem like a small miss, but having Nelson ranked even higher than his NFL draft slot counts as a hit.
Derwin James, Los Angeles Chargers
Draft Position: No. 17 overall
Predraft Rank: No. 11 overall, No. 13 overall mock draft
Derwin James is the best safety in football. That's an opinion and not a fact, so please feel free to disagree, but the second-year wrecking ball from Florida State was an All-Pro as a rookie and is already a force whom opposing offensive coordinators have to account for on every snap.
Which makes you wonder how he fell all the way to No. 17 in the 2018 NFL draft.
James, who was underranked even on my list, was a puzzling slip in the draft given the selection of players like Vita Vea and Kolton Miller ahead of him. The only issue with James was that he missed most of the 2016 season with a knee injury and had to shake off some rust coming back from surgery.
Even in a historically talented draft class with four quarterbacks taken in the top 10 picks, James' fall will be one many general managers regret. Having him ranked six spots ahead of where he was drafted qualifies as a hit.
Justin Reid, Houston Texans
Draft position: No. 68 overall
Predraft rank: No. 47 overall, No. 56 overall mock draft
Justin Reid was a starter at Stanford, ran a 4.40 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine and was praised by coaches in predraft interviews our scouts did. He ended up ranked in the middle of Round 2 on my board, but only because he looked to be more of a box safety on tape. The Texans are happy he did, because in Round 3, they found a foundational piece in the secondary.
Reid, who was drafted 21 spots after my ranking, was a bright spot for Houston as a rookie. His emergence allowed the team to let Tyrann Mathieu walk in free agency, a move that saves salary-cap space and will net the team a high compensatory pick in the 2020 draft.
Drafting well outside of the first round is imperative to team building, and former general manager Brian Gaine found an instant starter with high character, great athleticism and the tools to match up against both tight ends and slot receivers or step down into the box and shadow mobile quarterbacks and running backs. His value at No. 68 overall was incredible.
Misses
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Draft position: No. 1 overall
Predraft Rank: No. 12 overall, No. 3 overall mock draft
This one isn't quite as bad as ranking Russell Wilson in the third round, but it hurts just the same.
It was obvious during the three days spent around Mayfield at the Senior Bowl that he was a special leader. That much was also very clear watching his press conferences and game tape, but the week in Mobile, Alabama, opened a lot of eyes to his magnetic personality. Players loved Baker, and the Browns did too.
Ranking Mayfield at No. 12 overall was far too low—and projecting him to be drafted No. 3 overall doesn't save that. In a draft class with Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen, the ranking should have been Mayfield either QB1 or QB2 behind Darnold. Lesson learned.
Mayfield was a miss on my rankings, as well as an important reminder that height doesn't always matter and that leadership and poise are among the most valuable traits a quarterback can possess.
Mike McGlinchey, San Francisco 49ers
Draft position: No. 9 overall
Predraft Rank: No. 22 overall, No. 10 overall mock draft
A talented starter at Notre Dame playing both left and right tackle, the San Francisco 49ers saw Mike McGlinchey as an immediate replacement for Trent Brown and a potential successor for Joe Staley. The front office saw McGlinchey's consistency and drafted him 13 spots higher than my ranking, but only one spot ahead of where he was projected to go in a final mock draft.
McGlinchey is good, but he wasn't viewed as a blue-chip left tackle prospect. That's reflected in the fact he was ranked No. 22 overall instead of the top 10, where he was expected to be drafted.
Time will tell who was right or wrong on this one, but having a player drafted 12 spots before his projected position in the first round deserves to be called a miss.
Josh Jackson, Green Bay Packers
Draft position: No. 45 overall
Predraft rank: No. 17 overall, No. 18 overall mock draft
Josh Jackson had it all at the cornerback position: size (6'0", 196 lbs), speed (4.56s) and an NCAA-leading eight interceptions in 2017 en route to being named the Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year.
The NFL didn't like Jackson as much as I did, looking at the one-year starter from Iowa and questioning his ability to run in-phase with pro receivers. Jackson struggled to acclimate at cornerback, which is the hardest defensive position to adjust to in the NFL, and the Packers haven't found a long-term role for him yet.
The ranking—nearly 30 spots between grade and draft position—plus his inability to make an impact as a rookie has Jackson counting as a miss following his first season.
Harold Landry, Tennessee Titans
Draft position: No. 41 overall
Predraft rank: No. 15 overall, No. 20 overall mock draft
A first-round talent, Harold Landry fell all the way to pick No. 41 in the 2018 draft after teams became concerned with an ankle injury he had suffered in college. Even with his information known predraft, Landry still ranked at No. 15 overall. It was then discovered that he was medically red-flagged by teams for knee and back injuries. The drop in the draft started with that knowledge.
Landry showed flashes in his first season as he got onto the field as a sub-package and rotational rusher, and his role will be expanded in 2019. The Titans will be very happy if Landry gets back to being the player who was ranked No. 15 overall, which is possible if he can stay healthy.
Factoring injury into a scouting report is always difficult (see: the aforementioned Tank Carradine), but with Landry, the Titans rolled the dice on a player with numerous injury concerns. Following a 4.5-sack performance as a rookie, Landry looks like he could be a hit instead of a miss in due time.
Darius Leonard, Indianapolis Colts
Draft position: No. 36 overall
Predraft rank: No. 77 overall, No. 87 overall mock draft
When a player wins Defensive Rookie of the Year and is named an All-Pro, you really hope your report was high predraft. In the case of Darius Leonard, it wasn't.
My biggest issues with him were lack of big-time competition coming out of South Carolina State and a frame that looked completely maxed out after he'd come to college as a 190-pound linebacker and left around 235 pounds.
A common scouting mistake happened here: Instead of looking at what Leonard did well, I looked at thresholds. He's made me look silly for it. And that's why Colts general manager Chris Ballard is one of the best evaluators in the NFL—he looked at Leonard's speed, playmaking and awareness and saw a starting middle linebacker.
Matt Miller covers the NFL and NFL draft for Bleacher Report.