Preakness Picks 2019: Predictions and Odds for All Horses Before 144th Race

The fastest horses generally have the best chance at winning, but speed is just one of many factors that will impact this year's Preakness.

Tactics often play a key role at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, because the Maryland track features tighter turns and a shorter stretch run than Churchill Downs or Belmont Park.

Improbable is the 5-2 favorite in the Preakness, and he was also the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. The big advantage he should have this time around is jockey Mike Smith, who picks up the ride for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

That should give this horse a decided advantage as Baffert excels at preparing his horses for the biggest races and is also an expert strategist. Smith is a sharp jockey who relies on his experience and knows exactly when to make his move. 

Baffert has seven Preakness victories to his credit, while Smith has been to the winner's circle twice in the Preakness.

As strong as those connections are, though, Improbable has to show he can go the distance. He may be in excellent shape through the first mile, but this race is 1 3/16 miles, and he may not have enough stamina to finish the race at top speed.

Post Position, Horse, Jockey, Morning line (per Preakness Stakes)

1. War of Will, Tyler Gaffalione, 4-1
2. Bourbon War, Irad Ortiz Jr., 12-1
3. Warrior's Charge, Javier Castellano, 12-1
4. Improbable, Mike Smith, 5-2
5. Owendale, Florent Geroux, 10-1
6. Market King, Jon Court, 30-1
7. Alwaysmining, Daniel Centeno, 8-1
8. Signalman, Brian Hernandez Jr., 30-1
9. Bodexpress, John Velazquez, 20-1
10. Everfast, Joel Rosario, 50-1
11. Laughing Fox, Ricardo Santana, 20-1
12. Anothertwistafate, Jose Ortiz, 6-1
13. Win Win Win, Julian Pimentel, 15-1

Bourbon War could turn out to be a live long shot in the race. He comes into the Preakness at odds of 12-1, and the combination of trainer Mark Hennig and Irad Ortiz Jr. appears to be a dangerous one. 

The colt is one of the best come-from-behind runners in the race, and there appears to be enough speed in this race to suit him. If the horses on the front end get away and burn up the track in the early part of the race, Bourbon War could be moving fastest of all down the stretch.

If that is the case, that's where Ortiz takes over. He is an Eclipse Award-winning jockey and is at his best maneuvering his mount in the final quarter mile and giving him the best route possible.

Alwaysmining is not as much of an outsider as Bourbon War, but he does not have a history of competing against horses of this caliber. However, he has been competitive and has won seven of his 12 lifetime races, including the last six in a row.

Five of those races are stakes races, but he has not gone up against graded company in any of those events.

War of Will was making his move in the Kentucky Derby when Maximum Security angled out near the top of the stretch and got in front of him at a crucial point in the race.

As a result of Maximum Security's move that resulted in his disqualification, jockey Tyler Gaffalione had to pull up his mount to prevent an accident.

After being steadied, War of Will did not have enough to remain in contention. However, if he can avoid traffic and any incident here, he should have enough speed, strength and stamina to put up a good fight and contend for a position on the board.

Predictions

1. Bourbon War: Big finish with Ortiz leads to an upset.

2. Improbable: The combination of Baffert and Smith is brilliant, but the horse may not have enough down the stretch.

3. Alwaysmining: Can hit the board with powerful competitive effort.

4. War of Will: May not have enough down the stretch to hit the board.

5. Warrior's Charge: Should get out of the gate quickly but unlikely to be able to sustain speed.

6. Owendale: Difficult to compete against elite horses.

7. Anothertwistafate: Has the ability to get to the top after a speed duel, but can he stay there?

8. Laughing Fox: Speed duel will help him mount a late charge.

9. Signalman: Needs to bide his time before turning it on down the stretch.

10. Bodexpress: Still a maiden but has raced in Grade 1 company. 

11. Everfast: Trainer Dale Romans is not afraid to bring a long shot to the post. 

12. Win Win Win: Gets another shot after poor Derby effort.

13. Market King: Trained by D. Wayne Lukas but has not shown enough to be considered in this race.