Preakness 2019 Post Positions: Final Projections, Odds Payout and Post Info

Improbable ran into problems in the Kentucky Derby, finishing fifth under the wire even though he was the favorite in the Run for the Roses.

Ultimately, he was placed fourth after the disqualification of Maximum Security, and he is once again the favorite in the Preakness.

The middle jewel of the Triple Crown may not carry the same kind of prestige as the Kentucky Derby or the Belmont Stakes, but it is still one of the most important races for the best three-year-olds in North America.

Improbable, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert and ridden by brilliant jockey Mike Smith, comes into the race at odds of 5-2.

Post Position, Horse, Morning line, Win payout on $2 bet 

1. War of Will, 4-1, $10 (based on odds and return of $2 wager)
2. Bourbon War, 12-1, $26
3. Warrior's Charge, 12-1, $26
4. Improbable, 5-2, $7
5. Owendale, 10-1, $22
6. Market King, 30-1, $62
7. Alwaysmining, 8-1, $18
8. Signalman, 30-1, $62
9. Bodexpress, 20-1, $42
10. Everfast, 50-1, $102
11. Laughing Fox, 20-1, $42
12. Anothertwistafate, 6-1, $14
13. Win Win Win, 15-1, $32

The race sets up as a potential thriller, because there are a number of horses who like to run early and can set a red-hot pace; and if that speed comes to the forefront, the talented stalkers and closers in the field will have the opportunity to come roaring down the stretch.

Improbable got off to a decent start in the Kentucky Derby and settled in behind the leaders, but he didn't turn on his speed at the crucial part of the race. Smith should be able to bring out the best in this horse, but there are questions about whether he will be able to go the distance in the 1 3/16-mile race. Those questions will have to be answered in this race.

Improbable starts from the No. 4 post position, and that spot has produced 13 Preakness winners. The most recent was Curlin in 2007.

War of Will was moving swiftly and moving up in the Derby when Maximum Security suddenly angled out and moved directly into his running lane. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione had no choice but to check his mount, and that loss of momentum was a big problem for War of Will and kept him from finishing his run.

Gaffalione has been credited with doing an excellent job of preventing an accident in the Derby, and that should give the jockey confidence to know he can handle any situation on the race track. War of Will will begin his trek from the No. 1 hole, and while that is a difficult spot, American Pharoah won the Preakness from there in 2015.

Bourbon War is a long shot at 12-1, but this horse could have a strong chance of coming up with the victory. The three-year-old is trained by Mark Hennig and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., and he has two victories and a second-place finish in five career races.

Bourbon War is a strong closer who may be in the best position of all to take advantage of a fast pace. He roared down the stretch in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and finished a length behind Code of Honor in finishing an impressive second.

Bourbon War is running out of the No. 2 hole, and that's where Cloud Computing won from in 2017 as a 13-1 shot.

Alwaysmining should have a chance to put his signature on this race, as this Maryland-bred horse has seven victories in 12 career starts. He has won six consecutive races, and five of those have been in stakes races.

Still, this is a major step up in class, and jockey Daniel Centeno will be put to the test under trying circumstances. The 37-year-old has never piloted a horse in the Preakness, and anxiety is almost certainly going to be a factor for the jockey.

Alwaysmining gets to take off from the No. 7 hole, and that's the same post that Justify had last year when he won the Preakness before going on to claim the Triple Crown.

Predictions 

1. Bourbon War is largely overlooked by the betting public and is a double-digit long shot. If he begins his run on the far turn and is at full speed down the stretch, Ortiz is one of the best jockeys in North America and excels at guiding his horse during the stretch run.

2. Improbable has the trainer and the jockey, but he may have a hard time maintaining his finishing run during the last furlong and will have to settle for second place.

3. Alwaysmining will have the support of many of the local fans who have enjoyed his winning streak, and he will make a strong showing. However, these opponents are much too strong, and he will have to settle for the show position.

4. War of Will won't have the same kind of traffic problems that impacted his Kentucky Derby, but he will have to settle for fourth place against this field.