Preakness 2019 Lineup: Final Field Odds and Predictions for All Entries

Neither Country Horse nor Maximum Security will transfer the Kentucky Derby drama over to Saturday's Preakness Stakes, but perhaps the Triple Crown's second leg will also produce an unlikely winner.

Onlookers will hope for a more decisive conclusion at Pimlico Race Course. With the Derby winner absent for the first time this century, bettors must examine the 13-horse field carefully for the next hidden gem. 

Two weeks after failing to place at Churchill Downs, the favored Improbable is no lock to prevail. Not helping his cause is the fact that the majority of his competition is fresher. A jockey change, however, bolsters his chances of securing a top finish.

Let's predict the Run for the Black-Eyed Susan's top finishers. But first, courtesy of the event's Twitter account, here are the Preakness Stakes' post positions and morning-line odds.

Predictions

Win: Owendale

The most intriguing pick from a wide-open field, Owendale is riding high following a tremendous Lexington Stakes victory.

On April 13, the Into Mischief sire bested fellow Preakness participant Anothertwistafate and won by 1 3/4 lengths. He set his best Equibase Speed Figure (106) by a wide margin at Keeneland to amend an eighth-place showing two months ago at Fair Grounds.

According to USA Today's Dan Wolken, the Brad H. Cox trainee ran five furlongs in under a minute last Saturday. Although he doesn't brandish the steadiest track record, Owendale certainly has the speed to succeed at his best.

While Cox has never entered a horse into a prior Triple Crown event, the Kentucky native has emerged as an increasingly successful trainer. Per Equibase, he has raised his wins rank in each of the last four years, ascending to fourth in 2018. He is also training another trendy contender in Warrior's Charge.

At 10-1, there's plenty of value to glean from Owendale at the No. 5 post position, which has yielded two winners (Shackleford in 2011 and Exaggerator in 2016) this decade.

Place: Improbable

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Bob Baffert came up empty at the Kentucky Derby despite brandishing three of the race's top favorites. He'll run back one of those entrants at Baltimore, rekindling a fruitful partnership in the process.

Last year, Mike Smith saddled Justify to a Triple Crown title. The 53-year-old jockey, who won his first Preakness in 1993, will ride Improbable this weekend.

Originally pegged to steer the favored Omaha Beach at the Run for the Roses, Smith instead guided Cutting Humor to a 10th-place finish. 

Per David Ginsburg of the Associated Press, Improbable co-owner Elliot Walden explained the decision to switch from Irad Ortiz, who finished fourth at the helm two weeks ago.

"It's nothing against Irad. He rode him great in the Derby," he said, "It came down to a simple thing: Bob Baffert's had good luck with Mike Smith. Bob's kind of a karma guy."

Regardless of the jockey, Improbable had previously placed no lower than second prior to the Kentucky Derby. As one of the steadiest horses in the field, it's easy to see why he has emerged as the betting favorite.

Still searching for his first win of the year, the son of City Zip also doesn't present any value at his current odds. While the safest play for a top-three finish, Improbable may not have the breakaway speed to secure the crown.

Show: Alwaysmining

Winning each of his last six races at Maryland's Laurel Park, Alwaysmining has the track record and home-field advantage on his side. 

The son of Stay Thirsty also has an unlikely backer. Despite training the odds-on favorite, Baffert identified Alwaysmining as the horse to beat at Pimlico:

Despite his recent dominance, there is some cause for skepticism. He has never raced in a graded event, and jockey Daniel Centeno is making his Preakness debut. The hype could certainly fizzle, making this a dangerous pick to win at 8-1 odds.

And yet there's no doubting his potential, and his front-running style has also led to favorable Preakness results.

Now a popular pick more than a long shot, Alwaysmining could easily make this projection seem optimistic. It might also turn out too tame if he extends his winning streak, so consider third place a way of hedging the wide range of outcomes.