Early Predictions for MLB's Biggest Buyers and Sellers at 2019 Trade Deadline
Because of a recent rule change, there's no trickery at work with Major League Baseball's trade deadline in 2019. It's July 31, full stop.
This makes it a tad easier to sort the likely sellers from the likely buyers.
We've gone ahead and made predictions for which five teams will be the centers of attention in both arenas this summer. The sellers are squads that are short on contention hope but high on marketable players. The buyers are teams that have holes to fill and the means to fill them.
We'll start with the sellers and end with the buyers.
Sellers: Kansas City Royals
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Although the glory days of 2014-15 were clearly in the past, Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore tried to put a happy face on the team's immediate future in March 2018.
"I believe that we can put a strong, competitive team on the field each and every night and also develop in the minor leagues," he said, according to Maria Torres of the Kansas City Star.
Well, the Royals lost 104 games last season, and they began 2019 with Bleacher Report's No. 24 farm system. Now they're once again at the bottom of the American League Central with a 13-24 record.
The time is now for the Royals to get something for veteran left fielder Alex Gordon, who's earning his $20 million salary with an .878 OPS. Ditto for veteran right-hander Ian Kennedy, who's salvaging the two years and $33 million remaining on his deal with a 2.76 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 16.1 innings as a closer.
Assuming Danny Duffy is healthy, the Royals might shop the veteran left-hander. Also on the table should be lefty reliever Jake Diekman, speedy center fielder Billy Hamilton and defensive-whiz catcher Martin Maldonado.
Sellers: Detroit Tigers
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Elsewhere in the AL Central are the Detroit Tigers, who are off to a semi-respectable 15-17 start after dropping 98 games in 2018.
Still, this isn't a good enough excuse for GM Al Avila to accelerate his rebuild timeline. He indicated to reporters in January that it won't be time for the next phase (i.e., big spending) until 2021 at the earliest.
At the least, Avila figures to finally trade Nicholas Castellanos. The free-agent-to-be isn't much use outside the batter's box, but his .827 OPS since 2016 is no joke.
Righty closer Shane Greene should also be on the move. He has a 1.69 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 16 innings, and he's controlled through 2020. The Tigers also have a few low-risk rentals to offer, including infielders Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer and Gordon Beckham and veteran righty Tyson Ross.
The nuclear option would be a trade of 28-year-old lefty Matthew Boyd, who's breaking out with a 3.05 ERA and 57 strikeouts over 44.1 innings. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Tigers will cash in his three remaining years of club control (through 2022) if they can get a "premium young hitter" in return.
Perhaps that's not probable, but it's possible enough to take seriously.
Sellers: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Toronto Blue Jays have already traded defensive-minded center fielder Kevin Pillar. If they have it their way, more recognizable names will soon follow him out the door.
Per Mike Johnston of Sportsnet.ca, Ken Rosenthal said in an MLB Network discussion April 29 that the Blue Jays also want to move young right-handers Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez and slugging first baseman Justin Smoak.
The time is right to move Stroman, 28, and Sanchez, 26. In their pasts are injuries. In their futures is free agency after 2020. For now, though, both are looking good. Stroman has a 2.96 ERA through eight starts. Despite a problem with walks, Sanchez is at 3.21 through his eight outings.
Smoak doesn't have as much value on account of his age (32), pending free agency and one-dimensionality. Nonetheless, plenty of teams might like the sound of his .843 OPS and 68 home runs since 2017.
The Blue Jays don't have to stop at these three as they seek to further their rebuild. Rejuvenated closer Ken Giles, who's also controlled through 2020, might go. Veteran infielders Freddy Galvis and Eric Sogard will almost certainly be on the move.
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Sellers: Cincinnati Reds
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The Cincinnati Reds are better than their 15-21 record indicates. Their plus-21 run differential is the third-best in the National League Central.
Nevertheless, the Reds are struggling to gain traction. Plus, the division isn't going to wait for them. Cincinnati is the only team in the NL Central with a sub-.500 record.
At least the Reds kinda-sorta planned for this. Although they made an effort to build a contender over the winter, they built it on a foundation of rentals they could always flip in the summer.
They include right fielder Yasiel Puig, shortstop Jose Iglesias, righties Tanner Roark and David Hernandez, lefty Zach Duke and, health permitting, second baseman Scooter Gennett and left-hander Alex Wood. There's also righty reliever Jared Hughes, who has a club contract option for 2020.
The Reds could do well even if they restrict their summer trades to that group. They could do even better if they also dangled utility man Derek Dietrich and right-hander Anthony DeSclafani, both of whom offer useful skills and club control through 2020.
All told, the Reds have plenty of avenues with which to salvage their season.
Sellers: San Francisco Giants
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After enduring 187 losses over 2017 and 2018, the San Francisco Giants arguably should have blown up their roster this past offseason.
Perhaps they were hoping for a last hurrah in 2019, but what's actually happened is a 16-20 record. The longer this losing keeps up, the fewer excuses they'll have for keeping their group together.
When the selling finally begins, first on the block will be the Giants' two big rentals: lefty ace Madison Bumgarner and lefty closer Will Smith. They're both pending free agents, and they could be the trade market's top starter and reliever, respectively.
Other rentals the Giants can offer will include lefty starters Drew Pomeranz and Derek Holland, the latter of whom has a club option for 2020. They could also look to flip Kevin Pillar and perhaps get something for veteran righties Jeff Samardzija, Mark Melancon and Sam Dyson, all three of whom are either under contract or control through 2020.
The Giants might even move first baseman Brandon Belt, shortstop Brandon Crawford and catcher Buster Posey. It would be tough to part with Posey after all he's done for the team, yet opportunity may be knocking too loudly to ignore.
Buyers: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Milwaukee Brewers made some big splashes in the 2017-18 offseason, and they paid off in the form of 96 wins, an NL Central title and a trip to the National League Championship Series.
So far in 2019, the Brewers have come back down to earth somewhat with a 22-16 record. It will be tough for them to boost themselves with blockbuster trades on account of their diminished farm system and (by their traditionally limited standards) bloated payroll.
However, it wouldn't be in this team's character to neglect the trade market and wait for its problems to fix themselves—especially not in light of how serious its problems are.
To wit, Milwaukee's starting rotation has used an NL-high-tying nine different pitchers to get to a 5.03 ERA. Its bullpen, meanwhile, has a 4.20 ERA and no hope of seeing Corey Knebel this year. The Brewers might also consider adding a bat to their infield, which has had a surprising amount of trouble generating offense.
If it means possibly getting to the World Series, the Brewers may be willing to sacrifice what's left of their farm system and financial flexibility to fix these issues.
Buyers: St. Louis Cardinals
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How are the St. Louis Cardinals off to a 21-15 start?
It's mostly thanks to their lineup. Offensively, they boast a solid .782 OPS (10th in MLB) and an average of 5.1 runs per game. Defensively, they lead the National League in efficiency at turning batted balls into outs.
Pitching-wise, however, the Cardinals could be better. Their starting rotation has a 4.44 ERA that overstates its effectiveness. Their bullpen is likewise weaker than its 3.99 ERA indicates, with struggles abounding outside of Jordan Hicks, John Gant and John Brebbia—who've combined for a 1.13 ERA.
The Cardinals haven't been to the postseason since 2015, so they ought to be interested in shoring up both their rotation and their bullpen. And they have the means to do it much more so than the Brewers.
To wit, we ranked St. Louis' farm system at No. 12 coming into the year. That's not counting slugging 23-year-old outfielder Tyler O'Neill, who doesn't have a clear role to play with the big club. And while the Cardinals' payroll is bigger than in 2018, it's not so big that the $206 million luxury tax is a looming threat.
In short, they have few reasons not to deal.
Buyers: Atlanta Braves
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The Atlanta Braves didn't face much opposition en route to winning the 2018 NL East crown. But so far in 2019, they've had to battle to even get off to an 18-18 start.
Some of that is due to how much deeper the division is this year, but it more so has to do with Atlanta's own weaknesses. In particular, on the mound.
Like the Brewers, they've also had to use nine different starting pitchers. Their bullpen has struggled mightily with free passes. To boot, they lost veteran closer Arodys Vizcaino for the season because of shoulder surgery.
The Braves could make it easy on themselves by signing Dallas Keuchel and/or Craig Kimbrel off the free-agent market. But if they'd rather make trades, well, that's also doable.
The Braves came into the year with MLB's No. 2 farm system, as well as a payroll that's actually below what they spent in 2018. These two things should eventually add up to considerable sway on the summer trade market.
Buyers: Minnesota Twins
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It's early yet, but the Minnesota Twins look like the real deal.
They sit atop the AL Central with a 22-12 record, the basis for which is an overwhelming offense that's produced an .810 OPS and 5.2 runs per game. Minnesota's pitching hasn't been that good, but it's holding its own with a 3.77 ERA.
Because the Cleveland Indians are struggling with a dearth of offense and a banged-up pitching staff, the Twins might put themselves on cruise control and still win the division. Or, they could double down for the sake of putting their division lead out of reach and preparing for a bigger challenge in the postseason.
For (literal) starters, the Twins could stand to strengthen their rotation outside of staff ace Jose Berrios. They could also target their bullpen for improvement. Righty closer Blake Parker barely has more strikeouts (eight) than walks (five), and Minnesota's whole relief corps is saddled with a 4.49 ERA and frequent walks.
Like the Braves, the Twins have the advantage of having a lower payroll than the one they had in 2018. They're also sitting on a farm system that ranked No. 9 in MLB at the outset of spring training.
Buyers: Houston Astros
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If it feels like the Houston Astros are better than their 21-15 record, well, they are. Even after losing by 10 runs on Tuesday, they still have a plus-38 run differential.
In any case, the Astros are once again atop an AL West that they won with 100-win seasons in both 2017 and 2018. The Seattle Mariners gave them a scare early in the season, but they've since cooled off and fallen back with the rest of the pack.
Yet the Astros don't necessarily want to sit on their hands. Their otherwise outstanding lineup could use an upgrade at first base. They could also improve the back end of their starting rotation, which has gotten a 5.11 ERA out of Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock.
To fix these issues, the Astros might dip into a farm system that ranked No. 7 in MLB coming into the season. They could also spend some money. They're yet another team that's spending less than it did in 2018, and the $206 million luxury-tax threshold isn't an immediate concern.
With the right moves, the Astros might earn a third straight 100-win season and a return to the World Series.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Payroll information courtesy of Roster Resource.
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