Preakness 2019: Early Predictions Post-Kentucky Derby

Country House won the 2019 Kentucky Derby after unofficial race winner Maximum Security was disqualified for interference following an inquiry.

Country House won despite 65-1 odds, making him the longest shot to win the Derby since 91-1 Donerail in 1913.

Talk about the stewards' decision probably won't end any time soon, but the second Triple Crown leg is just two weeks away.

Here's a look at some Preakness Stakes facts and early predictions. We'll focus on two non-Derby horses slated for the race who could earn top-three finishes and also make a pick for the winner.

Note the Preakness field has not yet been decided: Two horses below (Anothertwistafate and Alwaysmining) are listed as "probable," per Horse Racing Nation, and are training for the race. Maximum Security's Preakness status is not yet known.

Preakness Stakes Facts

Date: Saturday, May 18

Location: Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore

Length: 1 3/16 miles

Record Time: Secretariat (1973): 1:53.00

Reigning Winner: Justify (2018): 1:55.93

Preakness Stakes Predictions

Anothertwistafate

The three-year-old colt didn't qualify for the Kentucky Derby, but the Peter Redekop-owned horse has finished first three times and second twice in his last five races dating to Dec. 9.

The issue is whether Anothertwistafate can be as good on dirt as he is on synthetic tracks. The second-place finishes occurred on dirt, with the three wins occurring on synthetic.

There may be reason for optimism: On Feb. 19, Mike Curry of America's Best Racing said Anothertwistafate can excel on the surface, pointing to his sire, Scat Daddy:

"At stud, Scat Daddy got off to a terrific start and has proved to be a versatile sire of elite runners on dirt and grass in both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres with a Horse of the Year in the U.S. in Justify plus two in Chile among a dozen Southern Hemisphere champions. Scat Daddy also has sired multiple elite U.S. sprinters such as Lady Aurelia and No Nay Never as well as horses capable of carrying their speed around two turns like Justify and 2018 Travers Stakes runner-up Mendelssohn. For a great example of Scat Daddy's versatility, just take a look at Daddys Lil Darling, a Grade 2 winner on the dirt as a juvenile who went on to run second in the 2017 Longines Kentucky Oaks and became a Grade 1 winner at 1¼ miles on the grass."

Per BloodHorse, trainer Blaine Wright told reporters April 23 that Anothertwistafate would be back at Golden Gate Farms to train for the Preakness. Per Jonathan Lintner of Horse Racing Nation, Wright said:

"Our horse is pretty well-traveled. We felt like we've got the 'win and you're in' to the Preakness. If we put up all that money to go in the Derby and he ran bad, the Preakness is back in two weeks. That wasn't going to be ideal for us.

"We thought, 'Well, let's take our best stab there' [in the Preakness]. That gives our horse five weeks to prepare, which has been ideal for him in the past. Then it's back three weeks to the Belmont should he run a big race."

In sum, the lineage, previous results and extra preparation time could foreshadow an excellent finish.

Alwaysmining

This isn't a hard one to explain: Alwaysmining has won his last six races, all of which came on dirt. The Maryland-bred horse also beat Win Win Win, who entered the Derby with 16-1 odds, at the Heft Stakes on Dec. 29.

The three-year-old gelding has received positive reports in the lead-up to the Preakness. Trainer Kelly Rubley called Alwaysmining's half-mile run at Fair Hill Training Center "perfect," per BloodHorse.

"I actually thought it was a perfect work—out in 0:12 and change and finished up in 0:11. He went a nice 0:49 and out in 1:01. We're very happy," Rubley said. "I'd say his confidence level continues to improve. My rider thought he was a bit aggressive today, which is great to hear."

Rubley was also encouraged by Alwaysmining's race at the Federico Tesio Stakes on Apr. 20, a win by 11.5 lengths. Alwaysmining won his previous five races as a front-runner, but he needed to overtake the early leaders to finish first for the sixth consecutive time, per BloodHorse.

"I think that was probably my favorite race so far in the fact that we did answer that question: Does he need the lead?" Rubley said. "We always thought he did not, that he would settle, so it's finally proven to us. So we're very happy about that."

Signs are pointing to a successful Preakness run because of exceptional training performances and flawless results.

Maximum Security

Maximum Security may not have won the Derby, but he was clearly the best horse on the track, leading wire to wire.

If he competes in the Preakness, then he should be the favorite.

He won his first four races, including the Grade 1 Florida Derby, on dirt tracks. Maximum Security also just beat a loaded Derby field (even if it was without the scratched Omaha Beach, the pre-race favorite) that featured four horses with 6-1 odds or better.

Sharp bettors were clearly on Maximum Security, who made a dramatic leap from 10-1 to 9-2 on Saturday.

There's little reason to doubt him in two weeks. Maximum Security is the best three-year-old not named Omaha Beach.