Kentucky Derby Entries 2019: Race-Day Predictions for Horses, Jockeys in Lineup
Nineteen horses have an opportunity to etch their names in Kentucky Derby history Saturday.
The field for the 2019 edition of the Kentucky Derby was supposed to be 20 horses, but there wasn't a replacement available for Haikal after his scratch Friday.
Pre-race favorite Omaha Beach was scratched earlier in the week, which allowed Bodexpress to move into the field as an alternate.
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With 19 horses starting the race, post positions No. 2 through No. 20 will be used, per Churchill Downs PR.
The horses initially drawn in the first 10 posts will shift one to the right, while the competitors originally set for positions No. 13 through No. 20 move one to the left to fill Omaha Beach's spot.
Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Jockeys
2. War of Will (Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione)
3. Tax (Junior Alvarado)
4. By My Standards (Gabriel Saez)
5. Gray Magician (Drayden Van Dyke)
6. Improbable (Irad Ortiz Jr.)
7. Vekoma (Javier Castellano)
8. Maximum Security (Luis Saez)
9. Tacitus (Jose Ortiz)
10. Plus Que Parfait (Ricardo Santana Jr.)
11. Cutting Humor (Mike Smith)
12. Code of Honor (John Velazquez)
13. Win Win Win (Julian Pimentel)
14. Master Fencer (Julien Leparoux)
15. Game Winner (Joel Rosario)
16. Roadster (Florent Geroux)
17. Long Range Toddy (Jon Court)
18. Spinoff (Manuel Franco)
19. Country House (Flavien Prat)
20. Bodexpress (Chris Landeros)
Predictions
Mike Smith's Experience Helps Cutting Humor
According to AccuWeather, the track will likely be muddy Saturday, so experienced jockeys will be valued.
Mike Smith is as experienced as they come, and he won the 2018 Kentucky Derby in treacherous conditions aboard Justify.
Smith was originally set to mount Omaha Beach, but after the scratch, he was approached by trainer Todd Pletcher to ride Cutting Humor.
Cutting Humor is far from a favorite to win the race, but he should be considered in any trifecta or superfecta bets because of his jockey.
Smith should help Cutting Humor get off to a strong start out of the gate and push toward the front end of the field.
Given how poor the track may look, the winning horse may have to run a smart race to find the winner's circle instead of overpowering the rest of the field with speed.
Game Winner and Roadster Thrive From The Outside
Normally, a draw in the outside post positions is seen as a negative for Kentucky Derby contenders.
But if the track is muddied by the rain, Game Winner and Roadster could benefit from a clearer path to the front from the outside.
The pair of Bob Baffert-trained horses are the only contenders in the outside 10 post positions.
If Game Winner and Roadster get off to strong starts, they should be able to work their way into the front of the field by using the clean air in front of them from the outside.
In contrast, Improbable, Tacitus and Maximum Security will be stuck in a battle from the start since they are lined up close to each other in the middle post positions.
While the horses in the middle jockey for position and deal with the mud, Game Winner and Roadster should swoop from the outside in clean air for the majority of the race.
If that occurs, it could end up as a head-to-head race between the two. Roadster won the Santa Anita Derby with Game Winner in the field, but Game Winner has a victory at Churchill Downs from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from KentuckyDerby.com.
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