Kentucky Derby 2019 Odds: Predictions Based on Betting Lines for Top Contenders

The 145th Run for the Roses is a wide-open race that has a chance to see the contenders roar down the stretch and create an exciting finish.

The top horses in the race have demonstrated that they can come from behind, pass competitors and make their best runs down the stretch.

The only thing horses like Game Winner, Roadster, Improbable, Maximum Security and Tacitus will need to set up a thrilling run down the stretch is a reasonably fast pace to the race.

Kentucky Derby Information

Date: Saturday, May 4 

TV Info: NBC

TV Coverage Start Time: 2:30 p.m. ET

Post Time: 6:50 p.m. ET

Live Stream: NBC Sports Live

2019 Kentucky Derby Field

Post position, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Odds

1. War of Will, Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione, 15-1

2. Tax, Danny Gargan, Junior Alvarado, 20-1

3. By My Standards, Bret Calhoun, Gabriel Saez, 15-1

4. Gray Magician, Peter Miller, Drayden Van Dyke, 50-1

5. Improbable, Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 5-1

6. Vekoma, George Weaver, Javier Castellano, 15-1

7. Maximum Security, Jason Servis, Luis Saez, 8-1

8. Tacitus, Bill Mott, Jose Ortiz, 8-1

9. Plus Que Parfait, Brendan Walsh, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1

10. Cutting Humor, Todd Pletcher, Mike Smith, 30-1

13. Code of Honor, Shug McGaughey, John Velazquez, 12-1

14. Win Win Win, Michael Trombetta, Julian Pimentel, 12-1

15. Master Fencer (Japanese qualifier), Koichi Tsunoda, Julien Leparoux, 50-1

16. Game Winner, Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 9-2

17. Roadster, Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 5-1

18. Long Range Toddy, Steve Asmussen, Jon Court, 30-1

19. Spinoff, Todd Pletcher, Manny Franco, 30-1

20. Country House, Bill Mott, Flavien Prat, 30-1

AE-21. Bodexpress, Gustavo Delgado, Chris Landeros, 30-1

Scratched: Haikal, Omaha Beach

Odds courtesy of Churchill Downs PR.

Horses that come from behind are helped by a speedy early pace, and they can be hurt badly when the early leaders get away from the pack while running leisurely.

Game Winner (9-2) is the favorite in this race, and he is trained by Bob Baffert, who saddled Justify a year ago when that horse went on a Triple Crown run. Baffert also trains Improbable and Roadster, and it seems likely that at least one of those colts will have a good chance to get under the wire first.

Game Winner has four victories and two second-place finishes in his six career starts, and he will be ridden by Joel Rosario, who has one career victory in eight starts at Churchill Downs. 

Improbable (5-1) started impressively as a two-year-old with three straight victories, but he has had to settle for two second-place finishes in the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. 

He is a talented horse with a beautiful stride, but the big question about this horse is whether he will take it the distance. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will get the most out of Improbable, and he will push him hard to finish the race.

Roadster (5-1) is also a gifted runner, but he only has four races under his belt, so there are questions about his experience and his ability to go the 1 1/4 miles this race demands. Mike Smith, who was scheduled to ride Omaha Beach before that horse scratched due to difficulty breathing, could have ridden Roadster, but he did not take advantage of that opportunity. 

That could say something about this horse's ability, at least through the eyes of one of the top big-race jockeys in North America.

Tacitus (8-1) is trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Jose Ortiz, Irad Ortiz's brother. He has won two graded stakes races at two different tracks, and that speaks to his versatility. He has an ideal post to get out and off to a good start without getting shuffled back, but he must take advantage of it.

Maximum Security is ridden by Luis Saez and trained by Jason Servis. This is one horse that wants to make the lead or get close to it, but he can't use all his energy early or he will not have enough left down the stretch.

There are questions about whether Win Win Win (12-1) has enough speed to beat this competition, but he could benefit from a fast early pace because he has excellent closing ability when he comes down the stretch. Jockey Julian Pimentel is not a world-class jockey. The 38-year-old is making his first Derby start, and the big stage could be quite overwhelming for him.

Predictions

1. Game Winner—Rosario gives this powerful horse the edge.

2. Tacitus—Excellent effort, but just short of the winner.

3. Roadster—Close throughout, but not enough down the stretch.