Kentucky Derby 2019 Post Positions: Latest Odds, Historical Stats for Each Slot
Before trying to pick a winner at the Kentucky Derby, it is beneficial to look at where each horse will be posted out of the gate.
The Kentucky Derby has used a starting gate since 1930, and several contending horses in this year's Run for the Roses are in favorable post positions that can be advantageous in winning the 1¼-mile race.
There was a slight change to the initial starting gate positions with No. 12 Omaha Beach being scratched on Wednesday. Horses from positions 13-20 move over one while Bodexpress takes the No. 20 spot.
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Naturally, the inside positions have historically proved to do well, and no winners have ever been produced from Post 17.
Pole Position and Latest Odds (via NBCSN)
1. War of Will 15-1
2. Tax 20-1
3. By My Standards 15-1
4. Gray Magician 50-1
5. Improbable 5-1
6. Vekoma 15-1
7. Maximum Security 8-1
8. Tacitus 8-1
9. Plus Que Parfait 30-1
10. Cutting Humor 30-1
11. Haikal 30-1
12. Code of Honor 12-1
13. Win Win Win 12-1
14. Master Fencer 50-1
15. Game Winner 9-2
16. Roadster 5-1
17. Long Range Toddy 30-1
18. Spinoff 30-1
19. Country House 30-1
20. Bodexpress 30-1
Historical Stats for Each Slot
No. 1
While this position has produced eight winners, it is one of the worst slots for any horse to have. The first post is closest to the rail, therefore there are 19 horses pushing this horse into the rail, which makes it difficult to get any good positioning out of the gate. The last horse to win from the No. 1 slot was Ferdinand in 1986.
No. 2
Seven horses have won the race from here, and Triple Crown winner Affirmed was the last to do it in 1978. This post is good for finishing in the money, with a whopping 28.1 percent of the 89 horses to start in the second slot doing so—the second-highest of any of the slots.
No. 3
The No. 3 slot does not produce a whole lot of winners, either. In fact, only five horses have ever won from this post, with Real Quiet the last to do it in 1998.
No. 4
The four slot has also only produced five winners, but its success has come more recently with Super Saver taking the Derby from this position in 2010. Danza was the last horse to be in the money at No. 4 in 2014.
No. 5
This is the spot you want to be in. No. 5 has produced 10 Derby winners, the most of any post. That is good news for Bob Baffert's Improbable, slated at 6-1 odds from this position. Five of those 10 winners have come since 1997, with Always Dreaming the most recent to do it in 2017.
No. 6
This may be the worst of the positions inside the top 10. Only two of 89 horses at this position have won the Derby, and only two have finished in the money this century. One of which was Good Magic, who came in second last year. Its last winner was Sea Hero in 1993.
No. 7
This was the lucky spot last year when Justify won the Derby out of the No. 7 slot. It is actually one of the best positions to be in, producing seven winners of the 88 horses, with 20.5 percent finishing in the money.
No. 8
This slot has produced the third-most winners, with eight of 88 horses winning. Mine That Bird was the last winner in 2008, but he was also the last No. 8 horse to finish in the money, too.
No. 9
The ninth slot has not been kind in the Derby. Only four horses have won the race from this position, and the last to do it was Riva Ridge in 1972—marking the longest first-place drought of any horse in the first 10 slots.
No. 10
This is another historically good spot to be in. There have been nine winners produced out of the 10 slot, and 29.2 percent of the 82 horses to run in from this post have finished in the money—the best percentage of all the pole positions. The last winner was Giacomo in 2005.
No. 11
Not many winners here. Just two of 78 horses have won the Derby out of the No. 11 spot, with the last one being Winning Colors in 1998. The other? Brokers Tip in 1933.
No. 12
This is not much better than No. 11, although the pre-race favorite, Omaha Beach, was placed in this slot before being scratched. Now it belongs to Code of Honor at 12-1 odds, but only three winners have been produced here, with the last being Canonero II in 1971.
No. 13
The end of the first gate (1-14) starts to become more favorable again because it gives the horses extra room to break out. Five of 72 horses have won in this slot, including Nyquist in 2016, and 23.6 percent of those horses have finished in the money—the fourth-best percentage of all the position poles.
No. 14
It has been a while since this position has seen a winner, which last came from Carry Back in 1961, the longest drought of all the Derby positions.
No. 15
Five of 57 horses have won out of this position, including Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who was the most recent to do it in 2015, while Orb did it in 2013.
No. 16
Four out of 47 horses have won out of this position, and they have all come since 1995. Animal Kingdom was the last to do it in 2011, and 21.3 percent have finished in the money.
No. 17
This is the only spot of the 20 pole positions that has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner. Bob Baffert's horse Improbable (5-1) escapes this post because of the Omaha Beach scratch, so Long Range Toddy (30-1) is stuck as the one who will try and break the trend.
No. 18
The final three spots have not featured many competitors as the Kentucky Derby used to be a smaller field, but Gato del Sol won as a 21-1 longshot as the lone winner out of the 18 slot in 1982.
No. 19
The only winner here came rather recently, in 2012, when I'll Have Another won the Derby. Otherwise, the average finish out of this spot is 12.2.
No. 20
Only 17 horses have run from this slot, with the only winner being Big Brown in 2008.
Data via Racingdudes.com
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