Kentucky Derby 2019 Odds: Picks, Dark-Horse Contenders and More

The huge 20-horse field that has become a fixture in the Kentucky Derby creates a factor that is not seen when handicapping nearly all other races.

The problem of traffic at the start of the race is basically a given in the Derby, and getting shuffled to the back of the pack can ruin a strong horse's chances of winning the Run for the Roses.

This is a factor that impacts all horses, including the favorites. There are many elements that will decide the race, but a horse that likes to lead or at least stalk the pace that fails to get out of the gate well may not be able to overcome the crowded start.

It opens things up for the longer shots in the field to win the race.

Omaha Beach is the 4-1 favorite in the race, followed by Game Winner at 5-1 and Improbable and Roadster at 6-1. The latter three horses are all trained by Bob Baffert, a five-time winner at the Kentucky Derby.

The remaining 16 horses in the field have odds of 10-1 or higher at this point, and here's a look at the likely contenders among them.

Post position, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Odds

1. War of Will, Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1

2. Tax, Danny Gargan, Junior Alvarado, 20-1

3. By My Standards, Bret Calhoun, Gabriel Saez, 20-1

4. Gray Magician, Peter Miller, Drayden Van Dyke, 50-1

5. Improbable, Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1

6. Vekoma, George Weaver, Javier Castellano, 20-1

7. Maximum Security, Jason Servis, Luis Saez, 10-1

8. Tacitus, Bill Mott, Jose Ortiz, 10-1

9. Plus Que Parfait, Brendan Walsh, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1

10. Cutting Humor, Todd Pletcher, Corey J. Lanerie, 30-1

11. Haikal, Kiaran McLaughlin, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1

12. Omaha Beach, Richard Mandella, Mike Smith, 4-1

13. Code of Honor, Shug McGaughey, John Velazquez, 15-1

14. Win Win Win, Michael Trombetta, Julian Pimentel, 15-1

15. Master Fencer, Japanese qualifier, Koichi Tsunoda, Julien Leparoux, 50-1

16. Game Winner, Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1

17. Roadster, Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1

18. Long Range Toddy, Steve Asmussen, Jon Court, 30-1

19. Spinoff, Todd Pletcher, Manny Franco, 30-1

20. Country House, Bill Mott, Flavien Prat, 30-1

Odds courtesy of Covers.com

Tacitus should have a legitimate chance of running with the leaders and has odds of 10-1 with three days to go before 1 1/4-mile race.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, Tacitus is coming to Churchill Downs off two stakes victories. One of those wins came in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and he was able to overcome traffic in that race and record a 1 1/4-length victory.

Since he will be involved with a crowded field Saturday, a history of overcoming trouble is a positive factor. 

Mott has trained brilliant horses like Cigar and Theatrical, but he has never had any luck in the Derby. He has never finished better than seventh with any of his eight starters. Jockey Jose Ortiz has done a little better, finishing second in last year's Derby.

Tacitus tends to stalk the pace before closing with a rush. If this race is won at a slow pace—and there's not a lot of speed—it will be tough to mount a late closing rush. As a result, Tacitus should stay fairly close to the lead so he has a chance to close in victorious fashion.

Code of Honor is a 15-1 shot to win the Derby, and he has an impressive trainer-jockey combination of Shug McGaughey and John Velazquez backing his effort.

Code of Honor has a pair of wins in five lifetime starts, as well as second- and third-place finishes in addition to finishing out of the money in his other race.

Much like Tacitus, Code of Honor likes to come from behind, and he needs a fast early pace to have his best chance to win. However, Code of Honor has not shown he can handle trouble as well as Tacitus, and he could find himself in a desperate position if he finds himself in traffic.

McGaughey has saddled one Derby winner when Orb won the race in 2013, while Velazquez has won the Derby twice with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Orb.

Win Win Win is a 15-1 shot, and he earned his spot in the Derby when he rallied and took second in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Win Win Win has been to the post six times and has three victories to his credit, and he has been in the money on two other occasions.

The trainer-jockey combination of Michael Trombetta and Julian Pimentel is quite inexperienced in the Derby. Trombetta has saddled just one previous Derby horse, while Pimentel is making his first Derby start.

Win Win Win is also a closer, and he needs early speed if he is going to run his best race.

Maximum Security may have the best chance of springing an upset on the field that includes so many stalkers and closers.

Maximum Security is a 10-1 shot, and he is a pacesetter. If he is able to get to a lead of a length or more while keeping the pace reasonable so he doesn't burn himself out, he may actually have a chance to steal the race.

The bay colt is perfect in four career starts, and his 3 1/2-length win in the Florida Derby was his most impressive victory.

Jason Servis trains Maximum Security, and he finished 11th in last year's Derby, while jockey Luis Saez is making his fourth Derby appearance.

All racing information from KentuckyDerby.com, Bloodhorse.com and Twinspires.com.