Kentucky Derby 2019: Latest Vegas Odds & Predictions After Post Positions Draw

Omaha Beach has raced ahead to the front of the pack to become the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, after drawing the No. 12 post in a field of 20 horses on Tuesday.

The Arkansas Derby and Rebel stakes winner, trained by Richard Mandella, has 4-1 odds to win it all.

"It's nice to be outside a little bit," Mandella told John Cherwa of the L.A. Times. "You don't have to commit too quickly. It gives [jockey Mike Smith] a chance to size the race up. Couldn't be more happy."

Rounding out the other favorites are the horses trained by Bob Baffert: Game Winner (No. 16 post, 5-1, second), Roadster (No. 17 post, 6-1, third) and Improbable (No. 5 post, 6-1, fourth).

With these latest post positions, the smart money is betting on the top four horses, who are all coming from Southern California.

The odds will change, of course, leading up to Saturday's race, so be sure to keep a close eye on the top picks leading up to the the big event at Churchill Downs with the latest odds and predictions below.

Latest Odds

 

Predictions

Omaha Beach's Jockey To Repeat?

Derby fans may recall that Mike Smith won the race (and the entire Triple Crown) last year while riding Justify.

This year, though, the 53-year old jockey will be competing out of Barn 28, breaking from the gates straddling favorite Omaha Beach, looking for a repeat victory.

It was a surprise break from Bob Baffert, but one that Smith felt was right for him, despite laboring over the decision.

"It was an extremely tough decision," Smith told Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde. "Probably the hardest one I've ever had to make."

While Smith's departure does break up a winning tandem, he still brings a championship pedigree to his new pairing with Mandella.

All told, Smith has two Derby wins, seven Triple Crown and 26 Breeders' Cup races under his belt.

That's the kind of experience that matters.

The No. 12 post position is crucial, too.

"I love it," Smith said. "I didn't want to be down inside. I think I'm in a great spot."

Couple that with Smith's top-tier skill level and Omaha Beach should be a safe wager for betters.

        

Baffert's Still A Force On Race Day

Losing Smith to another horse is a tough break for Baffert, but don't feel sorry for Barn 33.

The 66-year old trainer has three horses in the top four spots and is also a proven winner.

Baffert has trained horses that have taken three Belmont Stakes and Kentucky Oaks wins, five Derby wins and seven Preakness Stakes wins.

Smith chose not to ride Roadster, so it will be up to Florent Geroux to take the mantle.

The rub is Roadster, who won the Santa Anita Derby this year, drew the No. 17 and no horse has ever won from that post position at the Run for the Roses.

"Not that many horses run out of there," Baffert told Cherwa. "But I'm OK. We'll figure out a plan for them.

"The 17 has been 0-for-40, but it's like [Triple Crown winner] American Pharoah had the 18 and there was a scratch and he had the 17 for a day and then he went to the 16. At the end of the day, you have to have the horse. If your horse shows up, that's more important. After watching Big Brown gallop from the 20 hole [and winning in 2008] it really doesn't make a difference."

History may not be on Geroux and Roadster's side, but Baffert will also have Joel Rosario riding on Game Winner and Irad Ortiz riding on Improbable, increasing his chances to take home the $3 million purse.

Baffert's horses are always in the running, so they are no underdogs.

Look for his trifecta of elite thoroughbreds to contend down the stretch when deciding on what horse to place wagers on.

           

Follow Maurice Bobb on Twitter, @ReeseReport.

Statistics obtained from Kentuckyderby.com.