Realistic MLB Trade Ideas to Solve Early 2019 Problems
It'll be a couple months before the Major League Baseball trade market heats up ahead of the July 31 deadline, yet some teams shouldn't wait to patch holes in their rosters.
To this end, we have a few ideas.
Eight, to be exact, and they involve trades for four pitchers and four hitters. These are deals that could be made right now, as the players in question are either reportedly or almost certainly available.
We'll start with the hitters.
Pittsburgh Pirates Trade for Jonathan Villar
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The Pittsburgh Pirates were hanging tough in the National League Central at first, but they've been sinking toward the bottom lately.
It's not the pitchers' faults. Pirates hurlers have put up a 3.56 ERA, and both their starters (3.30 ERA) and relievers (11.2 strikeouts per nine innings) have their merits.
The real problem is Pittsburgh's lineup, which has put forth a .666 OPS and 3.6 runs per game. Of particular note is the lack of production on the infield. According to Baseball Reference, the Pirates have gotten a total of 0.5 wins above replacement out of shortstop, second base and third base.
To fix this, the best the Pirates can do right now is a deal for Jonathan Villar. The 27-year-old is no star, but he can play all three of the aforementioned positions. He's also put up a solid .753 OPS for the Baltimore Orioles this year.
For their part, the Orioles aren't on pace to do much better than the 115 losses they accrued in 2018. They should cash in as many trade chips as they can, and Villar is one whose value could diminish if they wait.
Colorado Rockies Trade for Neil Walker
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It's a new year, but the Colorado Rockies are struggling with the same problem that threatened them at pretty much every turn in 2018.
Despite its home-field advantage at Coors Field, the Rockies offense has mustered only a .708 OPS and 4.4 runs per game. Per weighted runs created plus, this is the worst offense they've ever had.
There's more than one position that's not pulling its weight, but the biggest problem is at second base. Mainly thanks (well, "thanks") to Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson, the position has produced an MLB-worst .449 OPS.
This is a job for Neil Walker. After a rough go of things with the New York Yankees in 2018, the 33-year-old is now bouncing back with a solid .764 OPS for the Miami Marlins. And like the Orioles, the Marlins' season is as much about cashing in trade chips as it is about winning games.
Walker is one who should be traded sooner than later. And if he does indeed land in Colorado, he could help out at first base and in right field in addition to second base.
Cleveland Indians Trade for Nicholas Castellanos
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The idea of Nicholas Castellanos being traded to the Cleveland Indians isn't original, yet it's one that just won't stop making sense.
Although the Indians are off to a solid 16-13 start, their offense has done everything in its power to drag them down. The big picture looks like this:
- 2018: .766 OPS and 5.1 R/G
- 2019: .642 OPS and 3.8 R/G
Cleveland can have faith that Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez will eventually reclaim their status as a superstar offensive duo, but hope is otherwise hard to spot. This is a shallower offense than the one the Indians had in 2018, and it especially shows in an outfield that's struggled with a .620 OPS.
Castellanos, meanwhile, is a .284 hitter with an .827 OPS dating back to 2016. He's not a good defender in right field, but the Indians' MLB-best talent for strikeouts would minimize that.
The Detroit Tigers might get more for Castellanos, 27, if they wait until July to shop him, but it's just as possible that his one-dimensional nature will still be a turnoff for many teams. They thus have some incentive to prioritize his five remaining months of team control as a primary selling point.
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Houston Astros Trade for Justin Smoak
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The Toronto Blue Jays have already traded Kevin Pillar, but they might use their surprisingly competent start as an excuse to keep the rest of the band together.
Or not. According to Mike Johnston of Sportsnet, reporter Ken Rosenthal said Monday on MLB Network that the Blue Jays have plans to try to move Justin Smoak, Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman before the season is out.
Smoak figures to be the least buzzworthy of the three, but he's not to be underestimated as a hitter. The 32-year-old owns an .847 OPS and 68 home runs since 2017. He'd make a nice addition to any lineup that needs help at first base.
There aren't many of those, but the Houston Astros are a candidate to bite. They're getting just a .688 OPS out of the cold corner. If they can fix that, what's already an outstanding offense would become virtually indestructible.
If the Blue Jays would rather not risk a quiet market for Smoak ahead of the trade deadline, they may indeed be willing to move him while he's still five or so months away from free agency.
Washington Nationals Trade for Mychal Givens
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There are a surprising number of bullpens that are struggling right now, but few have had it as bad as the Washington Nationals pen.
Sean Doolittle and Kyle Barraclough have been just fine in combining for a 1.48 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 24.1 innings. Yet Washington's bullpen has a 6.02 ERA, which ranks as the worst in the National League.
The Nationals could fix this by signing Craig Kimbrel off the free-agent market, but they have a delicate luxury-tax situation to consider. Per Roster Resource, their $202.2 million tax payroll puts them less than $4 million short of the $206 million threshold.
This means they need to go as cheap as possible in their search for a reliever. The best they can probably do right now is Orioles right-hander Mychal Givens, who's making $2.2 million.
Granted, Givens' 4.05 ERA isn't much to look at. Yet the 28-year-old has struck out 18 batters in 13.1 innings so far, and his overall contact rate is way down.
Givens is controlled through 2021, so the O's don't need to rush to move him. But if Washington's desperation were to result in an exorbitant offer, they would have to take it.
New York Mets Trade for Mark Melancon
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Elsewhere in the NL East, the New York Mets have their own bullpen dumpster fire to put out.
Ace closer Edwin Diaz has been as advertised with a 2.13 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 12.2 innings. As a whole, however, Mets relievers are struggling with a 5.53 ERA.
The Mets are bumping up against the luxury-tax threshold, but their $195.3 million tax bill gives them some room to work with. They might consider a deal for a reliever that's more of a salary dump than anything.
Kansas City Royals right-hander Ian Kennedy would be one candidate. But rather than mess with the $33 million he's owed through 2020, the Mets are better off calling the San Francisco Giants about Mark Melancon, who's owed $14 million in the final year of his deal.
Melancon, 34, is one of the "veteran relievers" whom Rosenthal reported the Giants are willing to talk about. He's had his problems in San Francisco, but he's turning a corner now with a 1.54 ERA through 11.2 innings. Notably, he's limiting damage with an extreme ground-ball rate.
Provided the Giants are willing to eat some money, they and the Mets might make a deal.
Milwaukee Brewers Trade for Aaron Sanchez
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The Milwaukee Brewers' strategy of leaving their starting rotation alone over the winter isn't working out.
The Brewers have already used eight different starting pitchers, and only Zach Davies (1.38 ERA) has proved to be reliable. The result is a rotation with a 5.14 ERA, not to mention a considerable home run problem.
If they mean to keep pace in the NL Central, 28e Brewers should be among the teams knocking on Toronto's door about Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez.
Between the two, Sanchez would almost certainly have the lower acquisition cost. He made only 28 starts in 2017 and 2018 because of injuries, and the 2.32 ERA he has this season is undercut a bit by the 20 walks he's issued in 31 innings.
In Milwaukee, Sanchez might benefit from throwing to Yasmani Grandal, who's once again rating as baseball's best pitch framer at Baseball Prospectus. To boot, the 26-year-old's talent for keeping the ball in the yard would be a welcome change of pace.
The Blue Jays don't need to hurry to move Sanchez. But the sooner they deal him, the more they stand to gain for his remaining club control through 2020.
St. Louis Cardinals Trade for Marcus Stroman
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Regardless of exactly when he's moved, Marcus Stroman is pitching like a guy who's going to be the single biggest prize on the summer trade market.
After an injury-marred 2018, the 28-year-old has dominated with a 2.20 ERA through his first seven starts of 2019. He's struck out 39, walked 16 and allowed zero home runs in 41 innings.
Although it's down a bit this year, one of Stroman's defining features is a well-above-average ground-ball percentage. He'd thus fit best with a contender that has a lockdown infield defense.
The St. Louis Cardinals would be perfect. They have one of MLB's most efficient defenses in general, and it's permitting an MLB-low .189 batting average on ground balls.
As it happens, starting pitching is the one flaw in an otherwise outstanding Cardinals roster that's produced a 20-10 record. St. Louis starters have a 4.47 ERA, and it sure seems like they'd be mistaken to count on Carlos Martinez or Alex Reyes to be of any help this season.
A trade for Stroman would be a more reliable ticket to an NL Central title. As a bonus, the Cardinals would get to keep him through 2020.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted.
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