UFC 236 Fight Card: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions
When Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway step into the cage to fight for the second time at UFC 236, the stakes will be much higher than in their first encounter.
The two first met in 2012 at featherweight in a fight that has become almost coincidental. Both were just making their way up the ranks and finding themselves as fighters.
Now, Holloway has become a bonafide legend in the featherweight division, while Poirier has evolved into a legitimate contender for the lightweight crown. Both will take a huge step toward claiming the division for their own, as the winner will be given the interim title while Khabib Nurmagomedov waits to return from suspension.
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In middleweight action, Robert Whittaker will find out who his next foe will be. Kelvin Gastelum was supposed to fight him at UFC 234, but an injury forced the champion off the card and set up Gastelum to meet with Israel Adesanya for the interim belt.
It's a classic clash of styles that should provide fans with a great prelude to a violent main event. The fans in Atlanta shouldn't be disappointed.
Here's a look at the full event offering and the night's biggest burning questions:
Odds via Action Network
Main Card (10 p.m. ET, PPV on ESPN+)
- Max Holloway (-225, bet $100 to win $44.44); Dustin Poirier (+175, bet $100 to win $175)
- Kelvin Gastelum (+145); Israel Adesanya (-175)
- Eryk Anders (-200); Khalil Rountree (+160)
- Alan Jouban (-120); Dwight Grant (-110)
- Ovince Saint Preux (-110); Nikita Krylov (-120)
Prelims (8 p.m., ESPN)
- Jalin Turner (-120); Matt Frevola (-110)
- Wilson Reis (+130); Alexandre Pantoja (-160)
- Max Griffin (-115); Zelim Imadaev (-115)
- Boston Salmon (-135); Khalid Taha (+105)
Early Prelims (6:15 p.m. ET, Fight Pass)
- Curtis Millender (+105); Belal Muhammad (-135)
- Montel Jackson (-550); Andre Soukhamthath (+375)
- Lauren Mueller (+140); Poliana Botelho (-170)
- Brandon Davis (-165); Randy Costa (+135)
Is Max Holloway Blessed at Lightweight?
There's no doubt that Max Holloway is among the legends in the featherweight division. It's hard to make a case for Jose Aldo or Conor McGregor over him when he has defeated Aldo twice and McGregor hasn't fought in the division since winning the title in December 2015.
The question is whether he'll be able to keep that success going in a new division.
The game changes at lightweight. The opponents are better grapplers; there's more strength and more power to deal with on the feet.
Dustin Poirier is going to be a great first test for this transition. Not only does he have the power on the feet, but he also has the ability to grapple with Holloway and test his ability to keep heavier fighters off him.
Danny Castillo of Team Alpha Male believes that could be an area that Poirier takes advantage of after watching some of the success that Brian Ortega had against Holloway in December 2018.
"He was just using his upper body and keeping him in a clinch, though. As far as going down to the legs and shooting, Ortega doesn't have that," Casitllo said, per Brett Okamoto of ESPN. "His takedowns are mostly getting into a clinch and pulling guard. I think if Dustin has an opportunity to win this fight, it's against the cage, but maybe following with a takedown."
If Holloway can pull off the transition to lightweight, his legacy would take an even bigger step forward. But it's a lot to ask of a man who has dominated featherweight for a while to do the same thing against the fighters he will see at lightweight.
This will be a barn-burner as long as it lasts, but Holloway may be set up for the upset.
Prediction: Poirier via second-round TKO
Can Israel Adesanya Become a Superstar?
The UFC is short on superstars.
Ronda Rousey and Brock Lesnar have gone to WWE. Georges St-Pierre is retired. Conor McGregor would like you to believe he's retired. Jon Jones is inconsistent and has no one to fight. The major draws that once defined the sport are gone or on the way out.
Israel Adesanya has the potential to become one of those guaranteed draws. His style is fun to watch, his ability to deliver highlight strikes makes him marketable and he isn't too bad on a mic.
The only thing left is for him to prove is that he's worthy of fighting on the big stage.
He's going to get his chance on Saturday night. A win over Gastelum would give him interim UFC gold and a chance to fight Whittaker for the real thing.
This is a true test for Adesanya. He's simply not faced a challenge like Gastelum. He was able to outclass what's left of Anderson Silva, but this will be a true in-his-prime title contender who is looking to make his own claim to a championship.
If Adesanya is the transcendant striker he is touted to be, it won't matter. If he isn't, this is going to be a rough night as Gastelum looks to make it ugly and utilize his grappling and clinch work.
Prediction: Adesanya via third-round TKO
Will Any Light Heavyweights Impress?
Light heavyweight is in a bad spot in terms of putting together a compelling division. It simultaneously has the most dominant champion in the sport in Jon Jones while also having the most shallow talent pool to choose from.
In short, it doesn't take much to get noticed in the division, and four fighters have that opportunity on the main card.
Division mainstay Ovince Saint Preux takes on Nikita Krylov to kick off the card, while Eryk Anders moves back up to light heavyweight to fight Khalil Rountree in the lead-in to the co-main event. It's a group who have all shown promise but aren't on an upward trajectory.
OSP is just two years removed from fighting Jon Jones for a full five rounds, but he has been unable to build any momentum from that performance. Krylov fought his way back onto the UFC roster by virtue of four wins outside of the Octagon, but he promptly lost to Jan Blachowicz in his return fight.
One fighter is probably headed toward irrelevance. OSP won a fight between the two in 2014, so the burden of proof of improvement is on Krylov here.
Anders and Rountree have a bit more intrigue left. The former is a powerful prospect who is returning to the division after a loss to Elias Theodorou. The latter is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Johnny Walker. A win here could help recoup some of that lost momentum for Rountree and see his previous loss written off as an example of just how good Walker is.
Prediction: Anders via unanimous decision; OSP via second-round TKO
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