UFC 236 Predictions: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Picks
If you're not excited for Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier 2, I feel bad for you.
Go ahead. Pull yourself up out of the muck that is the recent MMA news cycle and enjoy. Become excited to enjoy UFC 236, going down Saturday from State Farm Arena in Atlanta. We beleaguered fans need this right about now.
The featherweight title will go to the man who emerges from the fight between two inordinately skilled, preternaturally tough competitors who are a combined 18-1 (1) in their past 20 contests. The first time they fought, back in 2012, Poirier defeated a green, 21-year-old Holloway by submission.
Holloway is now the seemingly unbeatable featherweight champ, with four knockouts and four performance bonuses during his four-fight run with the interim and/or lineal belt. Saturday's bout, however, will be contested for the interim lightweight belt, up one division at 155 pounds.
And we haven't even gotten to Israel Adesanya yet. He's facing Kelvin Gastelum for the interim middlweight championship in the evening's co-main event.
The five-fight main card promises plenty of entertainment, and isn't that why we're all here? Breaking down the card is our picks team of Nathan McCarter, Jonathan Snowden and myself. Ready? Let's get it on.
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Nikita Krylov
1 of 5
Nathan McCarter
On paper, skill for skill, this looks like an easy pick for Ovince Saint Preux. He won their first meeting in under 90 seconds. However, the inconsistencies of his MMA career make it not so cut-and-dried. Still, Nikita Krylov has never been able to win a fight against an upper-level light heavyweight, and I don't think OSP has regressed that much in recent times. Give me the American by a rather boring decision.
Saint Preux, unanimous decision.
Jonathan Snowden
A lot has changed since they met for the first time in 2014. But one thing remains true for both men: They are capable of snatching defeat from victory at any moment.
As definitive as Saint Preux's victory was in their initial scrap, it feels like he's on the downside of a marginal career. Krylov's striking has improved just enough to walk away with a careful, close decision in a fight everyone hates.
Krylov, unanimous decision.
Scott Harris
This is an awfully close fight, and it has boom-or-bust written all over it. Krylov will swing for the fences and then fade into the mud of exhaustion and a relative lack of skill. He's a cult favorite—and an underdog—for good reason.
Saint Preux, unaninmous decision.
Alan Jouban vs. Dwight Grant
2 of 5
McCarter
When the UFC needs an exciting undercard fight, it can bank on Alan Jouban. This should be a fun scrap. Dwight Grant may have his opportunities, but Jouban has done this against more seasoned opponents and come away the victor. Experience is the deciding factor.
Jouban, TKO, Rd. 2.
Snowden
Jouban may not be a great fighter, but he's an absolute wild man in there—perhaps he's making up for his model looks with reckless, bad-boy behavior to prove he belongs.
Psychoanalysis aside, he's going to charge into something, and Grant punches really, really hard.
Grant, TKO, Rd. 2.
Harris
What you're going to want to do for this one is batten down the hatches. Grant is a home run slugger, while Jouban crushes line drives with his aggressive muay thai. Give me the more experienced competitor in Jouban. He may never be a contender, but he's more than proved he can warm up a crowd.
Jouban, TKO, Rd. 3.
Eryk Anders vs. Khalil Rountree
3 of 5
McCarter
Remember when Eryk Anders was the next big thing? Remember when Khalil Rountree knocked out Gokhan Saki and it looked like his potential was being realized? Yeah, those were short-lived times. I'm more inclined to favor the raw athleticism of Anders in his fight. He can withstand some punishment and eventually find Rountree's chin for a fight-stopping punch.
Anders, KO, Rd. 2.
Snowden
I traveled to a gym in Alabama last year to profile Anders, a football player who seemed destined for big things. It's been a bit of a bumpy road since, but he is simply learning on the job, getting his reps, finding the right weight class and learning what it takes to succeed at the elite level in a new sport. The potential for greatness is still there, and I'm not willing to give up hope just yet.
Anders, unanimous decision.
Harris
I'm not going to talk myself into current or future greatness for Anders, but he's established himself in the UFC for sure. There aren't many tougher guys, and his striking and clinch work are both coming along nicely. He may be uneven, but Rountree is more so, with wild kill-or-be-killed bouts the order of the day. That will work in Anders' favor, with his chin saving the day as needed.
Anders, TKO, Rd. 2.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Israel Adesanya
4 of 5
McCarter
This is the fight I am most looking forward to from Atlanta. Kelvin Gastelum has big power in his hands, but he is not likely to stand and exchange with Adesanya for an extended period. As for Israel Adesanya, we have not yet really seen what his defensive grappling is like against elite opposition. There are a lot of questions that should get answered in this stylistic clash.
Adesanya's aura is why I'll take him. Sometimes, it's that aura that truly sets apart a fighter from the field. He has backed up everything he has said thus far, and I am a believer that he is the real deal. And I am not sold that Gastelum can hold him down for 25 minutes. Adesanya starts slow and calculated, and it will be an accumulation of damage that will lead the referee to save Gastelum.
Adesanya, TKO, Rd. 4.
Snowden
I guess I'm going to be last to board the Adesanya hype train. It's long left the station and is circling back for another lap. But I'm still hesitant to jump on. His win over Anderson Silva to little to assuage my doubts, and there's a little voice in my head urging caution.
Gastelum is the kind of fighter no one wants to see across the cage. He has explosive power, solid wrestling and a track record of battling back from adversity. Those are important line items when trying to create the kind of resume that earns UFC title shots. He's the real thing and is going to send Adesanya back to the undercard for some seasoning.
Gastelum, unanimous decision.
Harris
When I think about this fight, I keep going back to Adesanya's coming-out party against Derek Brunson at Madison Square Garden. He was equal to the moment and more, but as much as that, I remember his takedown defense. He controlled Brunson as if he had him on a string. It only took a tiny opening for Adesanya to flash that lethal striking.
Is Gastelum better than Brunson? You better believe it. Could Gastelum win? Darn right. But Adesanya has momentum, and his skill set appears to compare favorably with Gastelum's until, well, it doesn't.
Adesanya, TKO, Rd. 3.
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier
5 of 5
McCarter
It's hard to believe it has been seven years since their first meeting and Max Holloway's UFC debut. So much has changed since then for both men. I am expecting Holloway to shine on Saturday. He won't be depleting his body to make 145 and will be able to maintain an even greater tempo while lacing in incredible body work on Dustin Poirier. Look for Holloway to run away with this one.
Holloway, TKO, Rd. 3.
Snowden
I don't know what to make of this as an interim title fight. Holloway, obviously, already has one division to reign over. Does having him part-time champion in two weight classes solve anything for UFC?
Poirier, should he get his hand raised, would lurk in the giant shadow cast by champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. That's hardly the ideal scenario for a fighter who has more than earned an opportunity to bask in all the glory he can.
All that aside, this is a heck of a prizefight. I feel blessed that I will be able to witness it.
Holloway, TKO, Rd. 3.
Harris
Yes, Poirier and Holloway were different fighters the first time around. And recently, against Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje and others, Poirier has looked complete. Beating Holloway will be a tall task, as he will need to get inside of Holloway's range, dirty it up and try like hell to get this to the ground. But if anyone can do it, Poirier can.
Poirier, unanimous decision.
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