LSU Could Spell Upset for Alabama Crimson Tide

I'll tell you up front, I'm not a “stats” guy;  I look at stats, but I trust my gut more.  

When I attempt to predict the future, I don't look at stats, but only the last few weeks. In college football momentum means far more than what happened six weeks ago, or where your rush defense ranks nationally.

Looking at LSU's schedule, they may not have been tested quite as many time as Alabama, but they would be undefeated if they hadn't played Florida already and they didn't lose that game by much.

Focusing on the last three games, LSU has allowed 23 points and scored 76.  Seven of those points allowed came during garbage time against Auburn when LSU likely had emptied the bench.  

LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson has thrown 18 fewer times than Alabama's Greg McElroy in his last three games, yet got a lot more out of it. Jefferson's 501 yards passing and four touchdowns eclipses McElroy's numbers by 142 yards and all of the touchdowns.

During this span, Jefferson has been throwing for a respectable 66 percent completion and 7.71 yards per attempt. 

Greg McElroy's numbers aren't so great.  His 51 percent completion rate is barely acceptable and the 4.33 yards per attempt is abysmal, like 1970s furniture; bad.

McElroy's going to take shots from the media, but the blame can be spread far and wide.  

Superman Julio Jones has been completely shut down deep in 2009. Alabama needed a trick play to get him his only touchdown this season.  

Darius Hanks, normally sure handed, has dropped a few lately and Marques Maze isn't getting open like he was earlier in the season.  

Tight end Colin Peek has been reliable, but is currently injured.  The other tight ends haven't showed up much in the passing game.

Against Ole Miss, Greg McElory took a beating at the hands of the Rebel defensive line.  That's the same Rebel line that couldn't get into the same zip code with Auburn quarterback Chris Todd on Saturday.  

South Carolina continued the assault the following week with similar results.

The lone bright spot offensively has been sophomore tailback Mark Ingram.  Ingram has been brilliant, but overuse which may have resulted in a subpar performance against Tennessee, especially in the second half.

Looking at the last three games, my gut feeling is that LSU is playing better football now and now is what counts.  If this game were in Tiger Stadium, I would pick them to win outright. 

Thankfully, the Tide has this game at home and have had an off week to think about it. 

Alabama's defense has been stifling all season and will likely give LSU's offense fits.  LSU does have outstanding skill players and its unlikely Alabama will pitch a shutout.   

But what Alabama desperately needs are for the big-time players to step up on offense.  Big-time players ARE big time because they show up when everything is on the line;now is that time.

The polls are beginning to reflect this lack of faith, as Texas slid past Alabama in the AP, BCS and Coaches Poll. The Alabama offense or lack thereof has become a national talking point for the media.

The upset vultures are beginning to circle.

If Alabama has any bullets left in their offensive gun, it's time to load those bullets and fire the weapon.  Alabama can still have a great season even if they lose this game, but nothing should be held back.

I can't think of a better time for Mark Ingram to put his best foot forward for the Heisman and for poll voters to see.  LSU's game plan is to stop him.  Alabama must be prepared to counter that tactic with big plays from their passing game.

The winner controls the West and their destiny.