10 MLB Superstars Who Won't Live Up to the Hype in 2019
If you have a favorite Major League Baseball star, chances are he's going to be just fine in 2019. That's the thing about stars. They're mostly reliable.
There are a few, though, who deserve a bit more skepticism.
We've come up with a list of 10 who could struggle to match their name value with actual value in 2019. Some are older players whose key talents are deteriorating. Others are coming off spectacular 2018 seasons that were a bit too good to be true.
We'll start with five pitchers and end with five hitters.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
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When the Chicago Cubs open up against the Texas Rangers on Thursday, Jon Lester will be making his fourth Opening Day start in the last five years.
Lester, 35, doesn't just deserve it on account of his $155 million contract. The left-hander has been a steady presence atop Chicago's rotation since 2015. Most recently, he put up a 3.32 ERA and co-led the National League with 18 wins in 2018.
Yet there are clear warning signs contained in Lester's three true outcome rates. His walk rate is trending up. His home run rate has been above the league average in each of the last two years. And in 2018, his strikeout rate plummeted.
It's tempting to blame all this on Lester's diminished fastball velocity, but there's more going on. Batters are getting better at laying off his curveball. He and Willson Contreras are also a poor fit. Contreras was by far the worst pitch-framing catcher in MLB last year, which cost Lester precious strike calls outside the strike zone.
Unless adjustments are made, the 4.50 ERA that Lester put up in the second half of 2018 could prove to be a sign of things to come.
Jake Arrieta, Philadelphia Phillies
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Jake Arrieta's first year with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2018 was a tale of two seasons.
There was Arrieta's solid first half when he put up a 3.23 ERA. Then there was his less-than-solid second half when his ERA ballooned to 5.04. It turned out he was pitching through an injured left knee, on which he had surgery in January.
If he can stay healthy throughout 2019, Arrieta might get back to what he was doing in the first half of last season, in which case he'd look a lot more like a $25 million-per-year pitcher.
Given that Arrieta is a 33-year-old with a lot of innings under his belt, however, there can only be so much optimism about whether that will happen. And even if it does, he may not be out of the woods.
Like Jon Lester, Arrieta is coming off an alarming dip in his strikeout rate. That this happened despite an increase in his average fastball velocity suggests his real problems lie elsewhere. To this end, it's noticeable that his slider has gotten flatter and that he doesn't change speeds like he used to.
The Phillies only need Arrieta to be a capable No. 2 behind Aaron Nola, but even that could be a struggle if he can't lower his red flags.
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
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Up next on our tour of compromised veteran aces is Corey Kluber.
To begin with, there isn't as much of a question about whether he still deserves the "ace" label as there is with Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta. Kluber won his second American League Cy Young Award just two years ago, and he finished third in the voting last season.
But if you know where to look, the cracks are there.
Kluber, who'll turn 33 on April 10, finished 2018 with an impressive 2.89 ERA over an American League-high 215 innings, but he's yet another guy who experienced a significant strikeout decline. Likewise, he gave up hard contact at a higher rate than the average pitcher for the first time since 2012.
Not so coincidentally, Kluber's average fastball velocity fell to its lowest mark since 2011. His slider is another pitch that's under duress. As his arm slot goes lower, its movement is getting flatter. The drastic decline of its swing-and-miss rate in 2018 is a clear indication this is a problem.
Because of the sheer variety of movements, speeds and locations he can show hitters, Kluber still has the goods to be a successful pitcher. His acehood, however, is encroaching on thin ice.
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Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
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To be fair, it might be cheating to single out Clayton Kershaw as a star who isn't likely to live up to his reputation in 2019.
It's no secret that he's had battles with injuries in recent years, and so it already goes in 2019. The 31-year-old lefty came down with a sore shoulder early in spring training, and it'll keep him from making a ninth straight Opening Day start.
Still, it's worth pointing out that Kershaw's problems extend beyond his diminishing durability.
There's also his sudden hittability. Kershaw developed a home run problem in 2017, and in 2018 he married it with a strikeout problem. Indeed, he was barely better than the average pitcher at striking batters out.
Underneath the hood is a fastball that's gone from an average of 93.1 mph to 90.9 mph in only three years. Meanwhile, the assorted narrowing gaps—e.g., velocity and both horizontal and vertical movement—between his fastball and slider mean there's increasingly little that differentiates the two pitches.
Just like with Corey Kluber, these issues are manifesting themselves not just in fewer strikeouts, but also in more frequent hard contact. Accordingly, Kershaw's own acehood is fading.
Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays
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And now for a star pitcher who, by all rights, should only be getting started with his prime years.
Blake Snell went into 2018 as something of a sleeper ace, and he awoke by winning the AL Cy Young Award race on the strength of league-leading marks in ERA (1.89) and wins (21).
To an extent, it is difficult to question whether Snell truly deserved his big breakout. To wit, the MLB-low 66.6 percent contact rate he posted is good evidence of how electric he was.
The 26-year-old did give up his share of hard contact, however, and he probably should have been hurt by that more than he was. He had one of the largest gaps between his xwOBA—a Statcast metric that measures expected production based on contact quality—and actual wOBA of any pitcher.
There's also the matter of how Snell was a little too good at stranding baserunners. His 88.0 percent strand rate was easily the highest among qualified starters. This was despite his curious strikeout splits:
- Bases Empty: 12.8 K/9
- Men on Base: 8.5 K/9
To be sure, Snell is too talented to not be good at all in 2019. He's just going to have a hard time being that good again.
Jesus Aguilar, Milwaukee Brewers
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Is Jesus Aguilar really a star?
Well, he was an All-Star last year. He also finished with 35 home runs, which was only three off the National League lead. So let's go with "yes."
In any case, the 28-year-old slugger won't have any more All-Star Games in his future unless he snaps out of the funk that came over him in the latter half of 2018. He went into the break with a .995 OPS and 24 homers. He put up only a .760 OPS and 11 homers the rest of the way.
Aguilar's expected production trended in the same direction:
- First Half: .378 xwOBA
- Second Half: .331 xwOBA
This happened largely because opposing pitchers began treating Aguilar like the dangerous slugger he had become. He saw fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches as the year went along. Presumably in response to his preference for pulling the ball, they also stayed away and thereby gave him little that he could turn on.
Unless Aguilar expands his comfort zone in 2019, a repeat of his 2018 breakout isn't likely to happen.
Miguel Andujar, New York Yankees
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Miguel Andujar went into 2018 as one of baseball's top hitting prospects, and he lived up to his billing with an .855 OPS and 27 home runs.
He missed out on the AL Rookie of the Year Award, however, in part because of his poor defense. He posted minus-25 defensive runs saved at third base, which qualified him as one of the worst defenders in the majors.
If that isn't fixed, the 24-year-old will need his bat to keep carrying him. There are questions there, too, particularly pertaining to whether he's actually a dangerous slugger.
Andujar had one of the largest gaps between his expected slugging percentage (.438) and actual slugging percentage (.527) of any hitter. It only got more pronounced in the second half, when he slugged .575 despite having only a .434 xSLG.
Beyond Andujar's power, there's the matter of whether he has a sustainable approach. Though it's to his credit that he doesn't strike out too much, he swings the bat a lot, and he doesn't show good discipline on pitches outside the strike zone.
Despite Andujar's obvious talent, it's hard not to be concerned about a player with such a thin margin for error.
Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
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After years of scintillating teases, Javier Baez finally put it all together in 2018.
He played in 160 games and carried the Chicago Cubs with an .881 OPS, 34 home runs, 21 stolen bases and 6.3 wins above replacement, according to Baseball Reference. Had it not been for Christian Yelich's absurdly hot second half, Baez would have won the National League MVP.
So why is he here? Not unlike Miguel Andujar, mainly because of the volatile means by which he applies his talent.
Baez's 2018 breakout was somewhat counterintuitive. He achieved it not by toning down his hyper-aggressive hitting approach, but rather by leaning into it. He ranked second among qualified hitters in both overall swing rate (57.7 percent) and out-of-the-zone swing rate (45.5 percent).
In theory, Baez's approach should work because he's a good bad-ball hitter. The opposite is true. His .226 xwOBA against pitches outside the strike zone last year was among the worst in MLB.
Pitchers have gotten the gist, as they've taken to throwing him fewer and fewer pitches in the strike zone. The longer Baez takes to adjust to that, the sooner he could be exposed.
Josh Donaldson, Atlanta Braves
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Josh Donaldson has every reason to go into 2019 with a chip on his shoulder. Given what he's capable of, anyone who doubts a chip-shouldered Josh Donaldson is admittedly asking for trouble.
He was the American League MVP in 2015, after all, which was also his fourth straight year of being worth 7-plus WAR. Moreover, he was still an elite hitter (.944 OPS and 33 home runs) as recently as 2017.
Still, reasonable doubts abound.
Calf injuries limited Donaldson to 113 games in 2017 and then to only 52 games in 2018. Is it wise to expect a 33-year-old to put these injuries behind him and return to being an everyday player?
If Donaldson was playing for an AL team that could slot him at designated hitter on either a full- or part-time basis, maybe. But the Atlanta Braves don't have that luxury. They need Donaldson to play third base every day, which means he's going to be putting strain on his legs every day.
If the injury bug doesn't do Donaldson in, other malignant forces might. His strikeouts have been on the rise, and xSLG confirms that the drop in Donaldson's actual slugging percentage in 2018 was the real deal.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
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If anything is certain for 2019, it's that Joey Votto will get on base at an astonishing rate.
Votto pushed his on-base percentage north of .400 for the first time back in 2009. There's been only one year since then in which his OBP didn't start with a four, and it wasn't 2018. He led the NL with a .417 OBP.
But after clubbing 36 home runs the year before, Votto finished with only 12 last season. The Cincinnati Reds will need more than that if they want to contend this season. To this end, that Votto's hard-hit rate held strong in 2018 is a reason for hope.
However, that obscures how Votto's fly balls featured less exit velocity (92.3 mph) and generally didn't travel as far (323 feet). In what sure seem like related stories, he played through knee and back issues last year.
To assume he won't experience more nagging injuries in 2019 is to assume he's invulnerable to the effects of both years and mileage. He's a 35-year-old with nearly 1,600 major league games under his belt.
Votto is still one of the best pure hitters to come through Major League Baseball. But without power, he's not quite as special.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant.
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