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MLB 2024: Who Will Be the Biggest Superstars of Baseball in 5 Years?
March 26, 2019MLB 2024: Who Will Be the Biggest Superstars of Baseball in 5 Years?
For those of us unsure about what tomorrow holds, no question leads to more fear than "Where do you see yourself in five years?"
Laying out MLB's future landscape is no easier.
Let's take a time machine back five years. Matthew McConaughey's performance as Rust Cohle gave HBO a breakout hit in True Detective. The Dayton Flyers soared their way to the Elite Eight as a No. 11 seed in the men's NCAA tournament. Phil Jackson signed a five-year contract to run the New York Knicks, which must mean he's about to wrap up his successful overhaul by steering them to another title.
Heading into 2014, the best player in baseball was some upstart named...Mike Trout. OK, that part didn't work.
Still, much has changed around the diamond in the last five years.
Miguel Cabrera was two years removed from a Triple Crown and coming off back-to-back AL MVP triumphs over Trout that sparked heated debate over WAR. Chris Davis had just bashed 53 home runs. Michael Cuddyer won the NL batting title, and Matt Harvey was just beginning his ascension to can't-miss superstardom.
What will baseball be like in five years? Maybe new rules that give each team only one out will cut down the average pace of play to seven minutes per game. Perhaps they'll pay minor leaguers fairly and alter free agency with changes to service-time eligibility.
Of course, no psychic could truly say which stars will run the place entering 2024. Some of the future's top players could currently be in high school or another country. In fact, we'll account for that uncertainty by beginning this 2024 All-Star team with a college standout.
Note: In order to simplify this exercise and focus on the players, no attempts were made to predict team changes.
C: Adley Rutschman, Oregon State
No, Oregon State didn't just receive an MLB expansion franchise. Although not the lone player highlighted before reaching the majors, Adley Rutschman was the only one considered before even signing with a big league club.
In the midst of a sensational junior season, the 21-year-old catcher is batting .433/.592/.806 with 29 walks and 12 strikeouts in 21 games. Barring signability concerns, the Baltimore Orioles will likely snag him with the first pick in June's amateur draft.
Per MLB.com's Joe Trezza, Orioles farmhand Cadyn Grenier hopes to see them add his former college teammate.
"He does things all the time where you're just like, 'Come on, dude,'" he said of Rutschman. "His defense behind the plate is incredible. Then add on being a .400 hitter in the Pac-12, being a switch-hitter, the dude is really impressive."
This is certainly aggressive for someone yet to face even a Single-A opponent, especially since catchers often require more time to develop at the plate because of their pitch-calling responsibilities.
Yet Ruthschman realizing his prodigious potential by 2024 isn't less feasible than J.T. Realmuto remaining a star behind the plate at age 33. Gary Sanchez is too risky a pick after his disastrous 2018, and he may not even be catching by this time. Along those lines, Francisco Mejia would have received more consideration if not for fear of a position change.
MLB's top catcher in 2024 may well have yet to step foot in a big league batter's box. Rutschman, who should reach The Show well before then, has the strongest chance of skipping the line as the best backstop.
Honorable Mentions: J.T. Realmuto, Gary Sanchez, Joey Bart, Francisco Mejia, Keibert Ruiz
1B: Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
One clear takeaway from assembling this squad: Organizations are redirecting superstar talent from first base.
Dozens of snubbed players who mostly reside at shortstop, third base and outfield would top Cody Bellinger in an overall list. At first base, the position at which Paul Goldschmidt (age 31), Freddie Freeman (29) and Anthony Rizzo (29) are likely to cede control by 2024, the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year looks poised to reign supreme.
This case would've been easier to make when Bellinger had the world in his hands after a dominant 39-homer arrival. However, he fizzled a bit last season and batted .260/.343/.470 with 25 long balls.
That's still a solid line, though it doesn't inspire tremendous confidence in this particular competition. At least the 23-year-old has already displayed a sky-high ceiling, and he's also far more athletic than his positional colleagues.
Besides, who else could take this honor from Bellinger? Perhaps Rhys Hoskins will provide some competition, but he's already 26 years old with a body and approach that may not age gracefully.
Few hotshots sit on the periphery. Pete Alonso, a potential defensive liability who may also struggle to make steady contact, is the only primary first baseman ranked among MLB.com's top 100 prospects.
This position sorely needs a new influx of star power over the next few years, especially if Bellinger ever shifts permanently to an outfield role. He made 50 starts in center field last season and held his own with positive defensive runs saved (DRS).
Honorable Mentions: Rhys Hoskins, Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Pete Alonso
2B: Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves
Though Ozzie Albies lost steam during the final months, let's appreciate what he accomplished over his first full season.
Sure, he hit 20 of his 24 homers before the All-Star break. But before focusing too much on the dip, stop and consider that a prospect lauded for contact, speed and defense delivered such power in the first place.
Simply going off last year's production, Albies won't rise to the top of the second base ladder with a .305 on-base percentage and perfectly average 100 weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Good thing he's a 22-year-old who hit .304 with an 8.3 walk percentage over four minor league seasons.
He's not done developing just yet.
The easy comparison is Francisco Lindor—another elite middle infield prospect who shattered offensive expectations out of the gate. If Albies can sustain last year's early power spike with past contact norms and Gold Glove-caliber defense, he will blossom into one of baseballs brightest superstars over the next five seasons.
Honorable Mentions: Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres, Yoan Moncada, Keston Hiura, Luis Urias
3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
The cream of the crop might not look entirely different at the hot corner. If they're still manning third base, Manny Machado, Alex Bregman, Jose Ramirez, Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado could all have one or two peak seasons left in their early 30s.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., however, could very well enter his age-25 campaign as MLB's premier hitter.
The hype is rightfully through the roof for the Toronto Blue Jays prodigy, who should make his highly anticipated debut once his oblique heals and his club can steal an extra year of service time. Shredding his way from rookie ball to Triple-A as a teenager, he notched a surreal .381/.437/.636 slash line in the minors last year.
MLB.com's scouting report described Guerrero as "an elite, generational-type hitter" with an 80-grade hit tool—the highest possible mark. Per Bleacher Report's Danny Knobler, a scout called the Hall of Fame outfielder's son an "A-Rod-type talent without the juice."
It's not hyperbole to say Guerrero could already have an MVP trophy (or two) on his mantle by 2024. Fast-forward five years, when fans need only blink to access a hologram of his FanGraphs page, and we could be wondering how he'll follow up 2023's Triple Crown.
Honorable Mentions: Manny Machado, Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman
SS: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
Like third base, shortstop is currently loaded with elite young players who could still be going strong in 2024. Currently the top contributor among them, Francisco Lindor is also the best bet to maintain longevity at the premium position.
Since his rookie season in 2015, no shortstop has submitted a higher fWAR (22.8). Most of the credit goes to his stellar glovework; defensive maestro Andrelton Simmons (65.4) is the only player across the diamond to record a higher ultimate zone rating (UZR) than Lindor's 41.8.
While an elite defender from his debut, the Cleveland Indians star continues to improve at the plate. Last season, he set personal highs in home runs (38), slugging percentage (.519), and weighted on-base average (.368 wOBA). He would have factored prominently into the AL MVP race if not for otherworldly results from Mookie Betts and Mike Trout.
Lindor is a well-rounded standout who keeps getting better, and he's only 25. Five years from now, the effervescent shortstop should ride high as one of MLB's premier frontmen.
Honorable Mentions: Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Royce Lewis, Trea Turner, Wander Franco
OF: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Trout is this team's oldest member, but he'll probably remain the game's gold standard at age 32.
He's simply too awesome not to include. The scariest part? He's still getting better.
Last season, the future Hall of Famer—even if he decided tomorrow to set aside his $430 million and become a meteorologist, he'd earn enshrinement in Cooperstown—somehow managed to surpass gaudy personal bests in on-base percentage (.460) and wRC+ (191). He did so while hitting .312 with 39 homers and 24 steals in 26 attempts.
Maybe his defense slips by 2024, and he likely won't run enough to tally any additional 20-steal campaigns. Health provided, he'll still be one of the greats, if not the best player on the planet.
OF: Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
Ronald Acuna Jr. would have given Trout some serious run for his money if we were forced to select just one outfielder. He's instead another lock who may potentially serve as baseball's best player by 2024.
He might even attain that status this season.
Following a few weeks of service-time manipulation, the prestigious prospect immediately proved ready for the limelight. Despite waiting until April 25 to debut for the Atlanta Braves, he won NL Rookie of the Year by batting .293/.366/.552 with 26 homers and 16 steals. He turned 21 in December.
Acuna's upside is limited only by one's imagination. A complete package in every facet, he could conceivably hit over .300 with 40 homers and 30 steals at his peak.
While finances weren't considered in this team's construction, Acuna rightfully topped Jonah Keri's trade value rankings on The Athletic. If not extended by this future timeline, he may inspire debate about whether he'll break Trout's contract record as perhaps the hottest free agent in MLB history.
He'd receive hearty competition, however, from this next guy.
OF: Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
Leading to, by far, the most excruciating decision, only one spot remained for Mookie Betts and Juan Soto. The defending AL MVP would certainly have received this distinction for the upcoming season. Even if we tightened the timeframe to three years, the 26-year-old Betts would get the nod.
But following his outstanding debut as a teenager, Soto's peak potential is too tantalizing to shun.
Prior to 2018, he'd played only 29 games above rookie ball and looked at least another two years away from reaching the majors. Then he streamlined his way through minor league levels by batting .362/.462/.757, and multiple injuries—including one suffered by fellow top prospect Victor Robles—compelled the Washington Nationals to promote him from Double-A at age 19.
Merely holding his ground would have marked an incredible achievement, but Soto instead performed like a polished All-Star. Showing plate discipline beyond his years, he recorded a .406 on-base percentage with the sixth-highest walk rate (16.0 percent) among all batters with at least 400 plate appearances.
If that's what he can do as the youngest kid in the majors, just think what he might accomplish with five full seasons of experience. A refined plate approach mitigates his bust risk, and he also possesses considerable upside as a perennial MVP candidate who could replace Joey Votto as the king of OBP.
Honorable Mentions: Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Christian Yelich, Andrew Benintendi, Eloy Jimenez, Victor Robles, Jo Adell
DH/SP: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
This decision may go against this imaginary conceit's unwritten rules, but Shohei Ohtani is too special to keep off the roster.
For those wondering why this space couldn't go to Betts or Bryce Harper, pretend it was intended for either a pure designated hitter or starting pitcher. Giving two for the price of one, he proved a massive difference-maker on both fronts.
Before the Los Angeles Angels shut him down from the mound, the Japanese newcomer posted a 3.31 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. With a splitter that yielded two hits and 53 swinging strikes in 191 pitches, he could resume his path to Cy Young Award contention when he returns from Tommy John surgery in 2020.
Ohtani also exceeded initial expectations with his bat by hitting .285/.361/.564 with the eighth-highest wRC+ (152) of anyone with at least 300 plate appearances. When focused solely on offense, he batted .318 with 13 homers and eight steals in August and September.
If Ohtani ever simultaneously optimizes his hitting and pitching abilities with a full season of health, he'd challenge Trout as the best player in baseball. He could still carve out an All-Star path by picking one craft.
No honorable mentions exist here because Ohtani is truly a one-of-a-kind player.
SP: Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
Five years ago, Corey Kluber was coming off a career year in which he registered a modest 3.85 ERA. Jacob deGrom was a fringe prospect who amassed middling numbers in the minors. Predictions are never easy so far in advance, but the exercise is especially difficult for pitchers.
Walker Buehler is a hazardous choice who has undergone Tommy John surgery and worked 146.2 career innings for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He doesn't yet possess the track record to project years of elite production.
He did, however, look the part last season. In 137.1 innings over 24 regular-season outings (23 starts), he dazzled with a 2.62 ERA, 151 strikeouts and a 50.0 ground-ball percentage. According to Baseball Savant, just four starters (Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, deGrom and Max Scherzer) yielded a lower expected wOBA than Buehler's .256.
That was all before he silenced the Boston Red Sox to the tune of two hits over seven shutout frames in Game 3 of the World Series.
Armed with an elite fastball complemented by a plus slider and curveball, the 24-year-old righty has all the tools for prolonged success. The deep Dodgers may not unleash Buehler on a full workload this season, but he'll comfortably supplant Clayton Kershaw as their new ace and Cy Young Award contender before 2024.
SP: Luis Severino, New York Yankees
Luis Severino may feel like a questionable choice. Out until at least May with a shoulder injury, he must also bounce back from last year's nightmarish 5.57 ERA after the All-Star break.
But as we did with Albies, let's take a step back and look at the full picture. The finish was so disappointing because he was in the midst of a Cy Young Award campaign.
On the strength of a stellar first half (128.1 IP, 2.31 ERA, 144 K), the New York Yankees ace still concluded 2018 with a 3.39 ERA, 220 strikeouts and a 3.26 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He's fifth in fWAR among starting pitchers over the last two seasons.
Aaron Nola may be the safer choice, but last season likely represents the ceiling for an ace without elite strikeout tallies. Because he's one year younger, Severino also gets the slight edge over Blake Snell and Noah Syndergaard.
Honorable Mentions: Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Noah Syndergaard, Forrest Whitley, Chris Paddack, Jose Berrios, Jack Flaherty
RPs: Edwin Diaz, New York Mets and Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
A current starter could easily move to the bullpen and assume this honor. After all, top candidates Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader (as well as wild card Jordan Hicks) all previously worked in the rotation.
Hader and Diaz led the majors in strikeout percentage and SIERA last season, and they will both be 25 once the Milwaukee Brewers southpaw celebrates his birthday on April 7. If gifted health and sustained command, they could sit atop MLB's bullpen hierarchy for a long time.
Picking one was too difficult, so let's just cheat and select one lefty and one righty.
Is five more years of dominance too much to ask from players at such a volatile position? Yes and no. It's reasonable to expect these elite performers to remain upper-echelon options if healthy. Each 30 years old last season, Aroldis Chapman (2.45 ERA, 16.3 K/9) and Kenley Jansen (3.01 ERA, 10.3 K/9) still offered commendable returns.
Neither lights-out closer, however, was as untouchable as usual. Chapman struggled with control, issuing 30 walks in 51.1 innings. Jansen, dealing with more pressing heart issues, posted the lowest strikeout rate and highest SIERA (2.97) of his career.
In other words, Hader and Diaz may be top guys, but not the top guys by 2024. Maybe Hicks harnesses his 103-mph heater to world domination. Or perhaps a current college starter will kick his skills into another stratosphere over shorter stints.
Honorable Mentions: Jordan Hicks, Jose Leclerc, Seranthony Dominguez, A.J. Minter
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.