March Madness 2019: Safe Picks, Predictions for Riskiest Teams in NCAA Bracket

In order to win your NCAA men's basketball tournament bracket pools, you want to side with teams you can trust all the way to the Final Four. 

Some of the most reliable programs are regular figures on the national stage, and they're once again near the top of the field of 68 in 2019.

On the other end of the spectrum lies a handful of teams that can't be trusted, whether it be due to recent form or March Madness history. 

The programs that are the biggest risks in the field of 68 also fall under the category of teams susceptible to first-round upsets. 

2019 NCAA Tournament Bracket

Safe Picks

North Carolina

Roy Williams has guided North Carolina to two of the last three Final Fours, and the Tar Heels are in position to make a run toward Minneapolis over the next few weeks. 

The Tar Heels put together one of the best in-conference records as they went 16-2 in the ACC, with their only losses coming to Duke and Virginia. 

North Carolina also carries one of the deepest rosters in the nation, with Cameron Johnson, Coby White and Luke Maye, all of whom average over 14 points per game, leading the charge. 

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

But Johnson, White and Maye aren't the only players opponents have to try to shut down, as Nassir Little, Kenny Williams and Garrison Brooks all make important contributions for the ACC side. 

The Tar Heels have a fairly easy path to the Elite Eight, as an inconsistent Kansas and Washington, underdog Utah State and up-and-down Auburn all reside in their half of the Midwest Region. 

The only program that can significantly challenge North Carolina's talent and depth is Kentucky, which resides at the bottom of the bracket as the No. 2 seed. 

However, there's no guarantee the Wildcats earn a matchup with the Tar Heels since they have a handful of tough teams in their half. 

With the bracket matchups in their favor, the Tar Heels should be able to get back to the Final Four and challenge for their second title in three years. 

Michigan 

In four of the last five years, Michigan has won at least two NCAA tournament games. 

The Wolverines have been to the Final Four twice in 2013 and 2018 and made the Elite Eight in 2014 under head coach John Beilein.

Michigan once again reloaded, with freshman Ignas Brazdeikis joining a veteran group headlined by Jordan Poole, Zavier Simpson and Jon Teske. 

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Just like North Carolina, Michigan is well-rounded because of its depth in all aspects of the court. 

Brazdeikis and Teske form a nice one-two punch down low, while Poole, Simpson and Isaiah Livers are all capable of threatening opponents from the backcourt. 

Michigan is going to have to start its tournament off with a win over Montana for the second year in a row, and it faces some difficult tasks in the later rounds against Texas Tech and Gonzaga, but it's more than capable of making a deep run. 

In past years, the Wolverines have defeated Kansas, Florida, Syracuse, Tennessee and Louisville among others in the Big Dance, so they won't be intimidated by any opponent. 

Riskiest Teams

Kansas 

You could make the argument that Kansas is in its worst position entering the NCAA tournament in Bill Self's tenure. 

Udoka Azubuike's injury and Lagerald Vick's leave of absence left the Jayhawks with an inexperienced roster that struggled in stretches during Big 12 play. 

Of all the top 16 teams, the Jayhawks are the most susceptible to falling in the first round, which is a positive sign for Northeastern. 

Colin E. Braley/Associated Press

Even if the Jayhawks advance past Northeastern, they can't be trusted to make a deep run, as their longest winning streak in Big 12 play was three games. 

The one-off nature of the Big Dance could affect Kansas' group of freshmen, including Ochai Agbaji, Quentin Grimes and Devon Dotson, and the moment might weigh them down for long spells. 

Putting all of that aside, Self's Kansas teams have been susceptible to upsets in the past, as the Jayhawks have experienced five opening-weekend exits since the coach took over for the 2003-04 season. 

Purdue 

Purdue enters the NCAA tournament with a point to prove after struggling in recent years in the Big Dance and losing two of its last three Big Ten games. 

Under Matt Painter, the Boilermakers haven't made it past the Sweet 16, and they lost back-to-back first-round games in 2015 and 2016. 

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Until the Boilermakers prove they're capable of advancing into the Elite Eight, they shouldn't be trusted with your picks. 

Purdue fans will counter that argument by saying the group led by Carsen Edwards and Matt Haarms is able to shake off past demons with its inside-outside balance. 

But with a Villanova side with tournament experience, or a hot Saint Mary's team awaiting the Boilermakers in the second round, we don't see them getting out of the first weekend. 

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