Alabama and LSU: Predicting a Winner By the Numbers

The offense of both units have come under close examination this year. But what do the numbers mean and how will they affect the outcome of the game? Let's examine.

Offense

Total Offense and Plays Run

LSU has run 426 offensive plays this year for 2148 total yards. LSU opponents have run 481 plays (55 more than LSU) for 2128 total yards (20 yards less). They average 306 yards of offense a game or 104 yards a game less than Alabama.

Simply put, LSU's offense doesn't control the ball enough to keep it away from opponents and the total yards made and given up are a wash out to the opponents.

Alabama has run 544 offensive plays this year for 3280 total yards. Bama opponents have run 503 plays (41 than opponents) for 1943 yards (1338 yards more than opponents)

Alabama has 1132 more yards of total offense than LSU, (but they have played one more game, the per game average is 410 yards per game) This is almost the exact same total as it has over its average opponent this year. That is 141 yards more offense a game and almost 15 more offensive plays per game.

Time of Possession

LSU loses the time of possession by over one minute per game.

Alabama wins the time of possession by over five minutes per game.

Offensive Misques

LSU has thrown 3 interceptions.

Alabama has thrown 3 interceptions themselves.

Passing and Rushing

LSU gets more yards through the air than on the ground 1281 yards to 865. The Tigers average only 3.53 yards per carry on the ground and seven yards per passing attempt.

Alabama gets more yards on the ground than through the air, 1741 yards to 1539. The Crimson Tide average 5.31 yards per rush and 7.125 yards per passing attempt.

Conclusion

Alabama's offense is better. It keeps defenses on the field longer, wins the time of possession, generates more total offense, and averages enough extra offensive plays to equal almost two more offensive drives per game than LSU.

Alabama is a more balanced attack and therefore harder to stop. The turnover margins are very close, but LSU averages slightly more turnovers per game than Alabama.

Bama's ability to run the ball will allow it to control the clock and wear down the Tiger defense. Alabama's offense is clearly better overall than LSU in almost every measurable way, so the fact that the nod in offense goes to Alabama is not very arguable.

Defense

LSU has outscored opponents by an average of 10 points game. The average opponent scores only 14 points a game. The Tigers give up 304 yards of offense a game, 127 by ground and 177 by air. They have given up three TDs on the ground and seven by passes in seven games.

LSU allows teams to convert third downs 40 percent of the time, while only making 38 percent of its own conversions.

Alabama has outscored opponents by an average of over 20 points a game. The average opponent only scores 11 points a game. The Tide give up just 242 yards of total offense a game, an astonishing 66.75 yards of rushing per game and 175 by air. They have given up only three TDs on the ground and just five TD passes in eight games.

The Tide allows teams to convert third downs just 29 percent of the time while making over 38 percent of their own conversions.

Conclusion

There is no logical argument that can be made that Alabama has the dominant defense in this game. They lead in almost every measurable category by more than impressive amounts in most.

Special Teams

Team      Field      Punting    Punt Ret.    K.O. Ret      T.D.'s      T.D.'s                                                          Goal %     Avg.        Avg.          Avg.         Allowed      Made

LSU      76.9%      38.73      13.73         18.25           0             1

Bama     87%        42.48     15.92         23.29            2             0

Conclusion

It could be said to be wash. While Alabama is more accurate in field goals and punts longer, LSU has been better in giving up scoring returns.

Other Valuable Intangables

Penalties

LSU has 43 penalties for 331 yards for about 47 yards per game  on average.

Alabama has 47 for 423 yards for about 52 yards per game on average.

Red Zone Success

LSU 79.17 percent. Alabama 86.49 percent.

Penalties are a wash, but Alabama's success in the red zone is just slightly better, giving them the check mark in this area as well.

Final Conclusions

They say you win with defense. Alabama has that without question, but they also have the more productive offense as well and does better in the red zone as well.

Figuring in home field advantage and a very noisy crowd, this makes it an even larger hurdle for LSU to overcome.

If you play the game strictly on paper, the Bayou Boys don't have a chance, but that's why they play the game.

Alabama should win this game, and by the numbers, the winning margin should be about 10 points. But as Tide fans saw in the last rivalry game with Tennessee, anything can and usually does happen.

It should be a very entertaining win with the winner most likely representing the SEC Western Division against Florida in the SEC Championship and perhaps a shot at the BCS National Championship.