Predicting the Biggest Losers of CBB's 2019 Conference Tournaments
With Selection Sunday right around the corner, teams on the bubble can still use their conference tournaments to lock up seeds in this year's NCAA tournament.
Some of the smaller conferences' tourneys have already started. Most others open in earnest next week, with the Power Five all kicking off on either March 12 or 13.
While some programs head into these events hoping to improve their seeding, others are eyeing one of the last four berths in the NCAA tournament's field of 68. If a handful of programs on the bubble can't pull out some big wins, they'll find themselves on the outside when the Big Dance begins.
These 10 teams in particular have a ton riding on upcoming outcomes.
They aren't necessarily the squads we think will perform worst in their conferences. Teams without any hope of making March Madness don't have much to lose, even if they perform poorly in their brief postseason appearances.
Instead, these are the ones that need a lot to go right in order to emerge from their conference tournaments without biggest-loser labels.
Furman (Southern)
1 of 10
The first round of the Southern tournament kicks off March 8. But thanks to a first-round bye, No. 3 Furman won't take the court until the quarterfinals one day later.
Assuming the Paladins skate past No. 6 Mercer, they'll likely meet No. 2 UNC-Greensboro in the semifinals—another team that could find itself on the outside when the dust settles on Selection Sunday.
Heading into the tourney with a 24-6 record, Furman can appeal to the selection committee with non-conference road wins at Loyola-Chicago and then-No. 8 Villanova in November. The Paladins' strong shooting helped carry them this season, and their field-goal percentage (47.5) ranks No. 39 in the nation.
But they hurt their case with a home loss to Samford in late January and a 2-4 record against the league's other top-four seeds. Should they fall to UNC-Greensboro, which fared better against top-four seeds this season (3-3), they'll lose any hope of sneaking into the Big Dance.
Even if the Spartans don't advance to play Furman, the Paladins will have to rack up more wins in the Southern tournament to keep alive any hopes of playing further into March.
Xavier (Big East)
2 of 10
The Big East tournament has a ton of implications for March Madness seeding, as Creighton, Xavier and Providence are still seeking tickets to the Big Dance.
Unfortunately for the Musketeers, things aren't looking promising as they enter tournament play.
Xavier went a cringeworthy 16-14 in the regular season—a record marred by a six-game losing streak beginning in mid-January, during which the team was bested by a slew of conference foes. Ranked teams (Villanova and Marquette) and unranked squads (Providence, Georgetown, Creighton and DePaul) contributed to the skid.
Yet the snakebitten Musketeers are still tied for the Big East's third-best conference record and can get into the league tournament on the right foot with a win over St. John's on March 9. But even if Xavier wins Saturday, it could land anywhere from a No. 3 to a No. 5 seed in the crowded standings.
Regardless of seeding, Xavier hasn't shown it can stack up against top conference talents such as Villanova and Marquette if it first advances past lesser teams like Creighton and Georgetown in the tournament. And with an early exit, the Musketeers would also lose their shot at a March Madness bid.
That's a lot of losses for a team that earned its first No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament last year.
Indiana (Big Ten)
3 of 10
Like the Big East, the Big Ten features many teams on the cusp of an NCAA tournament bid. But not all of them can make it.
Unfortunately, that's the likely outcome for Indiana.
The Big Ten tourney kicks off March 13, and the Hoosiers have improved their standing after getting back over .500 with important wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Illinois in the last two weeks. But a lot is still on the line for Indiana, and a loss would sting all the more if it knocks them into last-four-out territory.
The new NET metric weights Quadrant 1 victories heavily in the selection criteria, and Indiana has gone a disappointing 6-9 against such foes this season.
At 16-14 overall with one regular-season game remaining against 14-15 Rutgers, the Hoosiers must know a loss in the Big Ten tournament would make earning an NCAA bid extremely difficult.
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Seton Hall (Big East)
4 of 10
After a three-game losing streak, Seton Hall helped itself out with a 73-64 win over No. 16 Marquette. Not only can the victory help separate the Pirates from a crowded Big East field—five teams currently live on the bubble—but the resulting bump to their NET ranking could sway the selection committee.
If they can keep up the winning, that is. And that's where the Pirates' fortunes take another turn.
Seton Hall closes out its regular season with a conference game against No. 23 Villanova on Saturday. Despite the win against Marquette, we can't assume the Pirates will keep it going against another tough opponent.
They've faced four ranked teams to date and gone 2-2. That's not terrible by any means, but the resume looks worse when we consider the record against conference foes. Of the 12 losses, nine have come against Big East teams.
The good news is that four other Big East teams have identical conference records. But the bad news is that, well, four other Big East teams have identical conference records. The pressure is on, as the Pirates must thrive in the league tournament if they want to keep a bid within reach.
This weekend's game against Villanova could be a must-win affair. But with so many Big East teams on the bubble, the Pirates might also find themselves out of the March Madness picture with a loss in the conference tourney.
Utah State (Mountain West)
5 of 10
With a takedown of Nevada last weekend, Utah State kept its March Madness dreams alive. But the work isn't done.
If the Aggies can avoid sullying their No. 30 NET ranking with a bad loss in the conference tourney, they could earn an at-large bid. That's easier said than done.
In some ways, it seems outrageous that Utah State could find itself outside the selection committee's good graces despite leading the Mountain West in conference play (15-3). But while Nevada (14-3) trails in the standings, it impressed with a 27-3 overall record this season, including a victory over then-No. 20 Arizona State.
The Aggies, on the other hand, stumbled against No. 21 Houston and No. 6 Nevada midway through the year. Plus, the selection committee will continue to frown at their disappointing loss to San Diego State.
While the recent win over the Wolf Pack helps, Utah State still finds itself 10 spots below Nevada in the NET rankings. Let's also not forget that right after that marquee victory, it barely escaped with a 100-96 overtime win at Colorado State. That's enough to slow the hype.
If Utah State is to earn an NCAA tournament bid, it must avoid falling to either Nevada or Fresno State in the conference tournament. To do that, the Aggies should rely on junior guard Sam Merrill, who helped carry them past Nevada with 29 points but didn't stand out in the two losses to ranked teams.
They haven't made March Madness since 2011, and they might have to try ending the drought again in 2020.
Temple (American)
6 of 10
Temple's dreams could be squashed before the AAC tournament.
The Owls are set to cap their regular season with a meeting against No. 25 Central Florida on Saturday—an opportunity for a Quadrant 1 win that would be weighted heavily in the selection committee's deliberations. They have only gone 2-6 in such games this season.
In three other meetings against ranked teams, Temple went 1-2 with a win over then-No. 17 Houston on Jan. 9 but losses to No. 21 Villanova and the then-No. 13 Cougars.
With a necessary win against Connecticut on Thursday night, Temple kept itself in contention for the NCAA tournament. What's more, it secured a first-round bye for the AAC tournament, so its first game will come in the quarterfinals on March 15.
But the road to March Madness isn't going to be easy, especially when it starts in the conference. Temple has gone 12-5 in conference play this season; Houston, Cincinnati and UCF all have more conference wins.
At 22-8, the Owls may find themselves among the last four out when the field of 68 is set. Even with a victory over UCF, just one loss in the conference tournament would likely send them to the wrong side of the bubble, given the abundance of teams competing for at-large berths and their sub-par play against tough competition.
Arizona State (Pac-12)
7 of 10
Arizona State fans have to be encouraged by the existing bracketology wisdom, which seems to have the Sun Devils as one of the last teams in the field of 68.
Of course, bracketology is a fickle science. In March Madness, nothing is guaranteed.
A loss in the Pac-12 conference tournament would become even more devastating because it could snatch away their spot in the Big Dance.
The 20-9 Sun Devils have a crucial matchup against conference rival Arizona on Saturday to end their regular season. A win wouldn't punch their ticket, but it would give them some breathing room in the Pac-12 tourney. Arizona State heads into that matchup at No. 71 in the NET rankings, just to illustrate how close head coach Bobby Hurley's squad comes to falling off the bubble right now.
Even with a first-round bye, Arizona State would have to win the tournament to control its own destiny. Washington, Oregon, Colorado, USC, Arizona and Oregon State all remain in the mix, and the first two teams have higher NET rankings than the Sun Devils.
The Pac-12 isn't likely to earn more than four bids to the NCAA tournament, including whichever team wins the conference crown and an automatic berth. A recent 28-point drubbing by Oregon only casts more doubt on the Sun Devils' chances of becoming that squad.
Murray State (Ohio Valley)
8 of 10
Murray State missing out on March Madness would be a huge bummer. After all, how fun would it be to watch likely top-five pick Ja Morant ball out in the Big Dance prior to the 2019 NBA draft?
But the reality is sobering. To gain entry, the Racers pretty much have to win the Ohio Valley tournament—the price they must pay after hurting their selection chances by failing to earn any Quadrant 1 wins in two opportunities.
Sure, 25-4 Murray State has a 16-2 record in conference play. But one of those defeats came at the hands of the Belmont Bruins, who posted an identical record against Ohio Valley opponents and hold the crucial head-to-head advantage.
Now, Belmont and Murray State will duke it out in the tournament if the Bruins can beat Austin Peay while the Racers get revenge against Jacksonville State, who beat them by 20 points at the end of January. But if Belmont is indeed waiting in the championship game, Murray State's results so far this season don't suggest it can pull out the conference title.
Texas (Big 12)
9 of 10
After a loss to No. 8 Texas Tech in the penultimate game of its regular season, Texas has a ton riding on its Saturday finale against TCU.
The outcome won't dictate the Longhorns' seeding in the Big 12 tournament; they're already locked into the No. 6 seed.
But a loss would put them at 16-15 on the season. Then, a subsequent loss to any team in the conference tournament would make them a .500 team, which isn't likely to impress the selection committee.
Texas missed plenty of chances to pad its resume with Quadrant 1 wins this season by falling to five different ranked opponents—Michigan State, Texas Tech (twice), Kansas, Iowa State and Kansas State. Frankly, not much about their regular-season performance pushes the Longhorns over other bubble teams, which makes a conference tournament championship a necessity.
First, they have to make a statement against the Horned Frogs. The committee will be watching with great interest.
Clemson (ACC)
10 of 10
The selection committee relies on so many figures and rankings that it can make your head spin. They all matter.
Clemson maintains a No. 40 NET ranking heading into Saturday's regular-season finale against Syracuse. But other numbers are less promising for the Tigers' NCAA tournament chances. For instance, they managed just one of a possible 10 Quadrant 1 wins.
That's not going to impress the committee.
While seeding is not set in stone, the Tigers look to head into the ACC tournament as the No. 8 or 9 seed. And if that's the case, their very first game would come against NC State, which will earn whichever of the eight or nine seed that the Tigers don't. Though both teams went 8-9 in conference play this year, then-No. 21 NC State handed Clemson one of its nine conference losses in late January.
That first contest will largely dictate whether the Tigers find themselves in the field of 68, as both Clemson and NC State remain on the bubble.
But even if the Tigers prevail in the second round, they'd have a meeting with the No. 1 seed in the quarterfinals, which may well be North Carolina. And with a recent 81-79 loss to North Carolina looming large—not to mention losses to six other ranked teams this season—it's hard to imagine Clemson skating past the Tar Heels in the conference tournament.
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