2018 Draft's Most Mysterious Prospect Could Be a Cornerstone for Knicks

New York — The Knicks have found an unlikely source of hope in rookie center Mitchell Robinson, who is putting up historic rim-protection numbers.

The 2018 second-round pick is protecting the rim from both traditional and unconventional spots on the floor.

Since 1946, only Manute Bol has finished a rookie season with a block percentage higher than 10.0 (minimum 40 games), but Robinson is blocking 10.6 percent of his opponents' two-point attempts. He also entered March leading the league with 13 three-point rejections, per ESPN's Zach Lowe. As ESPN's Ian Begley pointed out, that's one more than Ben Simmons and Jrue Holiday, both of whom have logged over 2,000 minutes. Robinson had just 900 minutes played as of Wednesday.

With any rookie, there's usually a catch. Robinson is fouling 6.1 times per 36 minutes, but there's a silver lining: He's making plays at historic rates without any grasp of defensive fundamentals.

Robinson is like a chicken without a head—never still, and so active that he's frequently in the right position to ignite his leaping, length and motor to make a play on the ball. He possesses the sort of functional athleticism and upside you'd expect to find in a lottery pick.

On-Ball Defense

When Robinson is defending on the ball, his timing, quick hips, 9'3" reach and off-left hand come into play.

Against a back-to-the-basket post player, he doesn't need to bite on fakes because he can still contest shots standing straight up without leaving the ground. He does a nice job anticipating his opponent's release. He also has a quick second jump, which comes in handy if he does fall for a pump.

When defending on the ball against a player who's facing up, he can turn his hips quickly, making it difficult for his man to create enough separation off his move.

That, plus his length and springs, has led to valuable recovery defense, as he remains a threat to make a play from behind, even if his man gains a step.

Jump-Shot Blocks

Robinson's three-point blocks are even more impressive because he's a center and typically guards bigs inside the arc. They highlight his reaction time and ability to cover ground and airspace with unusual speed for a player his size.

He's had sequences guarding two players on one possession, helping in the post by doubling down before recovering back to a shooter.

It also points to tremendous potential in ball-screen coverage, where he can switch, contest the pick-and-pop, stick with a ball-handler over the pick or retreat backward to protect the rim.

Even defending one-on-one in space, he's able to deflect jumpers not only with his anticipation and length but also the surprise factor. Shooters aren't expecting Robinson to react as quickly or reach as high.

How Robinson Slipped

The Knicks caught a huge break, and they can thank a series of controversial choices by the 20-year-old center for his availability at No. 36 overall—specifically, his withdrawal from both Western Kentucky and the NBA combine.

"I couldn't get to see him predraft," a rival scout said in a sentiment echoed by practically every NBA staff member to whom Bleacher Report reached out.

"There really wasn't much to go off in terms of evaluation," another scout from an organization that passed said.

Front-office members found it difficult to confidently assess or approve Robinson's potential after he skipped college, went silent and passed on meeting with teams in Chicago. His lack of participation wound up benefiting the Knicks, as he wouldn't have slipped to the second round had scouts seem him demolish rims and shots in Conference USA competition or thrive in open workouts like he's doing as a pro.

They now have the league's third-leading shot-blocker after capitalizing on Robinson's fall from McDonald's All-American to mystery man last June—an image transformation that resulted from Robinson's self-created limited visibility, leading to other red flags about his judgement.

"I went around Dallas and did background checks but was never able to see him work out," a third scout said. "It's fair to say he was generally difficult to trust."

ESPN's Jonathan Givony noted last June how scouts openly questioned the advice Robinson received and whether the same influences would cause issues in the NBA.

"There could be an interesting study on how reputation and mystery are valued in the NBA draft system," the second scout said.

Since the draft, Robinson has switched agents twice, first firing Raymond Brothers after he encouraged Robinson to skip the combine despite teams not having seen him. Last month, he moved on from John Spencer to Dynasty agent Mayar Zokaei, who told Bleacher Report that "Mitch has gone through a huge period of maturation since the season started."

Any background concerns on Robinson were deemed inconsequential to general manager Scott Perry, particularly given where he was picking and the desperate state of the franchise.

"The most athletic big in the class we felt," Perry said after the draft, per NorthJersey.com's Chris Iseman. "The fact he was still able to be there at No. 36 we're excited about. ... We know he wants this, he knows the decision he made, to go about that path."

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

Though Robinson never played a minute of college basketball, some evidence may still have hinted that he'd find defensive success in the NBA, and not just based on his physical gifts or recruiting rankings. In 2016, he led both Peach Jam and Nike EYBL in blocks over Deandre Ayton, Mohamed Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr. and Jaren Jackson Jr.—four of the top seven picks in the 2018 draft.

The issue for Robinson and his eventual draft stock: NBA teams weren't allowed in gyms to scout AAU events.

"I watched those [high school] All-Star games, but those games you don't know," head coach David Fizdale said last July, per the New York Post's Marc Berman. "I had no idea what I was going to see. Once we got to practice, it's the timing that stands out..."

While 7'1" size, 7'4" length and ultra-athleticism still fuel Robinson's shot-blocking prowess, his timing continues to pop as a difference-making trait that could help propel him into the top tier of defenders.

"I know how to time shots just right to block them," Robinson told DraftExpress at the 2017 McDonald's All-American Game.

Can Knicks Build with Robinson?

During a time when the value of versatility seems higher than ever, Robinson offers little offensively.

That needs to be considered when building the lineup, but it's not necessarily a big problem. He appears capable of becoming a member of the rim-runner/lob-target club spearheaded by veterans such as Clint Capela and DeAndre Jordan. His tools, explosiveness, quick jump and hustle create elite finishing potential off rolls, missed shots, dump-downs and transition opportunities.

Robinson is converting 3.5 dunks per 36 minutes—not far from Rudy Gobert (4.0), Capela (3.9) and Montrezl Harrell (3.4), each of whom rank within the top five for total dunks behind Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images

But according to MSG Network (h/t The Knicks Wall), he's taken just one shot outside the paint all season, which brings up questions about spacing and the type of players he needs surrounding him.

Ideally, fellow rookie Kevin Knox develops into the starting power forward with his perimeter play and shot-making. The next phase of the dream would be signing free-agent shooters like presumed targets Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.

It's premature to put serious thought into the Knicks' best-case roster for 2019-20. But it also doesn't hurt to point out how well that core seems to fit together while Robinson potentially adds major value anchoring New York on a rookie contract.

The rebuild becomes even more interesting if the Knicks win the lottery and select Zion Williamson, who won't help with spacing next to Robinson but could give New York the league's most destructive 4-5 duo around the basket.

Fizdale could always continue using Robinson in an energizer role off the bench, especially if he struggles adjusting to the NBA whistle. But the ceiling skies higher than being a sixth man.

Regardless of how the front office performs in the upcoming draft and free-agency period, it already seems to have added a long-term cornerstone in Robinson, even if luck helped.

Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference and accurate through Monday's games.