2019 NCAA Tournament Title Odds for Top Men's Contenders Entering March

Selection Sunday is quickly approaching, but men's college basketball's top teams remain fluid. Every week now, the AP Top 25 poll reflects a shifting landscape. For example, the Duke Blue Devils—who seemed like a lock for a No. 1 seed two weeks ago—find themselves moving the wrong direction heading into March. 

As we know, however, the AP poll is only one piece of the puzzle. On March 17, the selection committee will announce and also seed college basketball's 68 contenders.

But this year, there's a new ranking system in place; the NCAA Evaluation Tool, or the NET, will take into account "game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency and the quality of wins and losses," according to NCAA.com. 

We, too, have taken all those factors into account to release this ranking of title odds for college basketball's top 10 teams heading into March. Note that these odds—indeed, these 10 teams overall—are our own, and as a result they won't match Vegas' odds or the AP Top 10. 

Honorable mention teams that just missed the cutoff here include the Michigan Wolverines, Nevada Wolf Pack and LSU Tigers.

Why? We simply believe the teams herein come out on top when taking those factors listed above into account. 

Let's take a closer look at the teams that, at this moment in time, look like the top dogs heading into March Madness. 

Texas Tech Red Raiders: 45-1

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Texas Tech isn't in the AP Top 10, but it earns our last spot among college basketball's top contenders for a couple of small reasons and one big reason. 

Let's start with that big reason: How's the most efficient defense in the country sound?

The Red Raiders are tops in KenPom's defensive rankings. They recently held No. 12 Kansas to a paltry 62 points and, earlier in the season, embarrassed then-No. 23 Oklahoma by limiting the Sooners to just 59 points.

Even Duke put up just 69 points against them in its mid-December win, and the Blue Devils average 85.0 points per game. 

And the Red Raiders can shut down everything. They allow opponents to shoot just 29.6 percent from three (10th) and 41.5 percent from inside the arc (fourth). 

Of course, it takes more than a stellar defense to win in March.

The Red Raiders have only played in four games against ranked teams, going 2-2 in those matchups. But their leading scorers, sophomore guards Davide Moretti and Jarrett Culver, have been turning it on in the lead-up to the tourney. They average 11.2 and 18.0 points per game on the season overall, but in their last five, they've put up 14.2 and 19.0, respectively. 

The Red Raiders share the Big 12 lead are getting hot at just the right time. With a defense this stingy, they're one of our picks to advance in the Big Dance. 

Marquette Golden Eagles: 30-1

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Marquette is back in the AP Top 10 as it prepares to close out its regular season, though its Wednesday loss to Villanova could knock it down a few spots. With loss, the Golden Eagles split the regular-season series with the Wildcats. 

Star guard Markus Howard struggled down the stretch Wednesday, scoring just one point in the last 11 minutes of the game. 

The loss is a microcosm of the Golden Eagles' regular season, which will also hold true in the tournament: As Howard goes, so too does Marquette.

Howard is sixth in college basketball in scoring, averaging an impressive 25.3 points per game. He's also hit 30 points eight times this season; unsurprisingly, the Golden Eagles have won every one of those games. 

It's nerve-wracking, to say the least, to pin your tournament hopes on one player. Sure, Marquette gets some nice production from the Hauser brothers, Sam and Joey, who combine to average 25.0 points per game.

But if the Golden Eagles make it deep into March (as, most likely, a top-four seed), Howard will be the reason. 

Houston Cougars: 20-1

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The Houston Cougars have been on a tear as of late, improving to 27-1 on the year with a lopsided 99-65 decision over East Carolina on Wednesday. They are in sole possession of the AAC lead. 

Now, we'll be the first to point out that Houston's strength of schedule doesn't strike fear into anybody's hearts. The Cougars have faced ranked opponents (No. 18 Oregon and No. 25 Cincinnati) just twice, though it's worth noting they won both games. 

And yet. 

There's something special about this Houston squad, and it's the reason they're here over a team like Michigan. The Wolverines are in third place in the Big Ten, and late-season losses have caused them to take a tumble down the AP Top 10.

Meanwhile, the Cougars continue to climb thanks to decisive recent victories and transcendent performances by senior guard Corey Davis Jr., who averages 16.0 points per game but who has put up 26 in two of his last three. 

Houston's defense is also built to withstand the demands of the Big Dance, ranking 12th in KenPom's defensive rankings.

Again, they're not always facing the sport's top talent, but we feel strongly that Houston can hang around into the late stages of the tourney this season. 

Tennessee Volunteers: 14-1

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Tennessee took a tumble in the AP Top 25 this week after dropping a close game to No. 13 LSU in overtime. The loss came just days after the Volunteers' 86-69 drubbing by Kentucky. At the most critical point in the season, the Vols appear to be heading in the wrong direction. 

The culprit for these late-season woes? The Volunteers defense; specifically, its three-point defense. Tennessee allows opponents to make 33.4 percent (128th) of those shots. It's a complete turnaround from the 2017 Rick Barnes team that was one of the best in the nation against the three, allowing just 31.8 percent. 

Of course, there are plenty of things to like about the Vols' game; after all, our odds may not be as high as some of college ball's other heavyweights, but they're certainly nothing to sneeze at. 

Tennessee is third in the nation in KenPom's offensive ranking. That's thanks in large part to upperclassmen Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield, who combine for an average of more than 35 points per game. 

Barnes' squad has a chance to climb in the odds and improve its seeding on March 2, when it faces off once again against No. 4 Kentucky, the reigning SEC conference champion.

With a win over the Wildcats, the Vols can cement their status atop the SEC and head into March Madness with their heads held high. It all starts with improving that three-point defense. 

Michigan State Spartans: 12-1

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Michigan State has been dealt a terrible hand in terms of injuries this season, but this squad doesn't spend a lot of time feeling sorry for itself. 

Despite losing shooting guard Joshua Langford to a season-ending foot injury and junior big man Nick Ward, temporarily, to a hairline fracture in his left hand, the Spartans continue to roll. They beat Michigan on Sunday to extend their winning streak to five and are tied with Purdue atop the Big Ten standings. 

Making up the production they were getting from Langford and Ward (30.1 points per game combined) was a big ask for the Spartans, but Tom Izzo's team is proving up for the challenge. Cassius Winston has picked up his scoring (55 points combined in his last two games), but his passing (7.4 assists per game) has been more vital. 

In fact, Michigan State is tied for second in the nation in assists per game. 

The Spartans aren't blowing away the rest of the league in other offensive metrics, though, ranking 34th in scoring offense (80.1 points per game) and 35th in three-point shooting (38.0 percent). 

But given that this team still beat Michigan, in Ann Arbor, without Ward, getting him back in the tournament could give Sparty a realistic chance to make a deep run. 

Kentucky Wildcats: 10-1

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Kentucky isn't the most balanced team on this list, but it's close. The Wildcats just miss out on having both their KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rank in the top 10 in college basketball; they land at No. 9 on defense and No. 12 on offense. 

That balance has helped land the Wildcats a respectable average scoring margin of plus-13.0 points, which is 12th-best in college basketball, per TeamRankings. 

John Calipari's team has some questionable losses this season, namely to unranked Seton Hall on Dec. 8 and Alabama on Jan. 5. But more important than defeating middling opponents is defeating tough ones, and there the Wildcats have delivered, defeating then-No. 9 North Carolina in late December and, just recently, then-No. 1 Tennessee. 

As a result of that win over Tennessee, Kentucky has entered No. 1 seed territory, two weeks out from Selection Sunday. 

Kentucky has some enviable talent this year in sophomore forward PJ Washington and freshman guard Tyler Herro, both of whom net around 15 points per game.

But, of course, in any tournament, Kentucky's biggest asset is Calipari himself. Since he took over at the helm in 2009-10, the Wildcats have only missed one postseason and have made it to the national final twice. 

This squad could easily make it back there in a month's time. 

North Carolina Tar Heels: 9-1

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The Tar Heels are still flying high after their 88-72 defeat of archrival Duke on Feb. 20 following Blue Devils star big man Zion Williamson's right knee injury early in the game. They've won every outing since then to improve to 23-5 on the season and first place in the ACC. 

Of course, the true test still waits for them. The Tar Heels take on Duke again for a regular-season finale on March 9, and the question of whether Williamson will be active for that game still remains unanswered.

There's no question North Carolina has looked great in its last two games against No. 16 Florida State and Syracuse, with freshman guard Coby White dropping a career-high 34 points in the latter game. But for an AP Top Five, that's to be expected. 

How do the Tar Heels advance in the tournament and hope to overtake the teams that remain listed ahead of them on this list?

First up for Roy Williams' squad is shoring up its three-point defense. That's no doubt UNC's biggest weakness heading into March; the Tar Heels allow opponents a ghastly 8.6 three-pointers per game, ranking 258th in threes allowed per game.

Opponents also shoot 33.5 percent from outside against UNC, which puts it at a ranking of 130th. 

The Tar Heels are doing everything right on the other side of the ball, ranking third in points per game and tied for second in assists per game. If North Carolina can fix its defense, it might be able to improve its odds even more as we head into March. 

Virginia Cavaliers: 8-1

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Make no mistake; the Virginia Cavaliers are one of the most balanced teams on this list, a trait that will serve them well come March. 

The Cavaliers have the distinction of ranking No. 4 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency and second in adjusted defensive efficency. 

In fact, Tony Bennett's squad is the only one on this list that ranks in the top five in both those categories. 

UVA has dropped only two games this season, both to—surprise, surprise—the Duke Blue Devils.

Obviously, both those outings occurred before Zion Williamson's right knee injury, which he suffered Feb. 11. It's all too tantalizing to think about how the Cavaliers would match up against the Blue Devils were they to meet now. 

Virginia counts among its impressive 24-2 record eight victories against ranked opponents. It's also finished games this season with an average scoring margin of plus-17 points, the third-best in college basketball, per TeamRankings.

These Cavaliers have shown they have the balance and the talent on both sides of the ball to tango with anyone—including any of the teams on this list. 

Duke Blue Devils: 7-1

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The Blue Devils may have fallen to—gasp—No. 3 in the AP Top 25 poll after recent losses to North Carolina and Virginia Tech, but we're not inclined to sink their tournament odds accordingly. 

Sure; with Zion Williamson, there's no question this Duke team is the one receiving the nod to advance all the way in March, rather than settling in at No. 2 with 7-1 odds.

But while Vegas may be reeling from the uncertainty surrounding Williamson's status, for now, we still have faith in this Blue Devils team despite the Zion-sized question mark. 

Duke had the rotten luck to draw two quality ACC teams in the days following Williamson's right knee injury. But RJ Barrett has stepped up in his place, dropping 30-plus points twice (including the North Carolina game) since Williamson's injury. 

Still, there's no question that Duke will have to figure out its March game plan without Williamson. We'll start with Barrett, who started off sluggish against Virginia Tech. Duke's freshman forward will need to be aggressive in the paint to keep Duke competitive without Williamson.

In terms of outside shooting, the Blue Devils will look to Cam Reddish, who made an impressive 50 percent of his attempts from the three-point line against Virginia Tech, though he only attempted six such shots.

With a combination of Reddish from downtown and Barrett driving to the basket, it's hard to count out this Duke team. 

Of course, if Williamson returns prior to the ACC tournament, even better. 

Gonzaga Bulldogs: 6-1

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The Bulldogs are the No. 1 team in the nation according to the AP Top 25, and it's not hard to see why. Gonzaga leads the KenPom rankings in adjusted offensive efficiency and has embarrassed its opponents when it comes to point differential.

Going into Thursday, Mark Few's squad had outscored its opponents by 738 points this season, which was easily the best in the nation. That's an average scoring margin of plus-25.4 points.

It's also worth noting that the WCC is markedly improved this season compared to last, with eight of its teams landing in KenPom's top 200. 

During its 19-game winning streak, Gonzaga closest game has been a 12-point win. 

The Zags rank 47th in CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm's strength of schedule rankings. They impressed with a defeat of then-No. 1 Duke back in November, but their back-to-back losses against then-No. 7 Tennessee and No. 12 North Carolina remain a black mark on their schedule. 

Gonzaga's 28-2 regular-season record and first-place standing in the WCC are stellar, and the Bulldogs have looked especially great down the stretch.

As long as they can keep that level of play going against improved competition, they look like the team to beat heading into March.