Predicting the Best CBB Teams Who'll Crash and Burn to Miss March Madness
With only 68 spots in the NCAA men's basketball tournament field and 32 of those going to teams who earn the automatic bid, there are inevitably a handful of tournament-caliber teams that wind up on the outside looking in each year.
Ahead we've taken a crack at predicting the seven best teams that will miss March Madness.
Whether it's an unfavorable remaining schedule, a lack of marquee wins, a troubling recent stretch or a simple numbers game, each of these teams faces a steep uphill battle.
There's still time for resumes to be improved, and a conference tournament win would make it a moot point. But right now, these seven schools, presented in alphabetical order, look to be on their way to the NIT.
Note: NCAA Evaluation Tool rankings in parentheses. Notable wins written in italics indicate a road game, while underlined games indicate a neutral site.
Clemson Tigers (43)
1 of 7
Record: 17-11, 7-8 in ACC
Quadrant 1 Wins: Virginia Tech (11)
Quadrant 2 Wins: Creighton (57), South Carolina (87), Pittsburgh (107), Georgia Tech (128)
Q1: 1-8, Q2: 4-3, Q3: 6-0, Q4: 6-0
Bad Losses: None
The Tigers began the season at No. 22 in the AP poll and peaked at No. 16 a few weeks later before a 1-3 stretch in nonconference play knocked them out of the rankings. They haven't been ranked since.
A recent three-game losing streak in ACC play now has them in danger of missing the NCAA tournament.
While they were able to snap that skid with wins against Boston College (127) and Pittsburgh (107), those victories do little to boost their resume.
The Tigers close out the season with home games against North Carolina (8) and Syracuse (44) that are sandwiched around a road game at Notre Dame (103). At the very least, they'll need to win one of those home games and take care of business against the Fighting Irish.
Even then, they could still have some work to do in the ACC tournament.
Furman Paladins (47)
2 of 7
Record: 22-6, 11-5 in Southern
Quadrant 1 Wins: Villanova (28)
Quadrant 2 Wins: UNC Greensboro (61), ETSU (66), Loyola-Chicago (130)
Q1: 1-5, Q2: 3-0, Q3: 1-1, Q4: 14-0
Bad Losses: Samford (160)
Furman has not been to the NCAA tournament since the 1979-80 season, and it made its first appearance in the AP poll earlier this year thanks to a 12-0 start.
That undefeated stretch included a win over Villanova—who was ranked No. 8 at the time—and while a disappointing season from the Wildcats has watered that down a bit, it's still an impressive road victory over a tournament-bound team.
The Paladins had their chance to move to the other side of the bubble last weekend when they faced Southern Conference top dog Wofford. Alas, they lost 72-64 and now find themselves facing long odds to punch their ticket.
At this point, it looks like the Paladins will have to win the SoCon tournament if they want to dance.
Murray State Racers (54)
3 of 7
Record: 23-4, 14-2 in Ohio Valley
Quadrant 1 Wins: None
Quadrant 2 Wins: Austin Peay (126)
Q1: 0-2, Q2: 1-2, Q3: 3-0, Q4: 17-0
Bad Losses: None
It would be good for college basketball to have Ja Morant on the big stage of March Madness.
The Racers point guard is averaging 24.4 points, 10.3 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game, and after entering the year as a potential first-round pick, he's now a surefire lottery selection.
In most other seasons, an Ohio Valley team with a 23-4 record that is piloted by a future NBA talent would run away with the conference and be a shoo-in to win the OVC tournament.
This year, Belmont stands in the way.
The Bruins have a matching 23-4 record and 14-2 conference mark, and they beat Murray State by 13 points in their lone matchup while also going 2-0 against a good Lipscomb team.
In fact, with two Quadrant 1 wins and three Quadrant 2 wins, Belmont has a legitimate case for an at-large bid if they fall short in the conference tournament. The same can't be said for the Racers, whose lone notable win came against a non-tournament team in Austin Peay on the road.
It looks like it's automatic bid or bust for Morant and Murray State.
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Nebraska Cornhuskers (45)
4 of 7
Record: 15-13, 5-12 in Big Ten
Quadrant 1 Wins: Clemson (43), Indiana (55)
Quadrant 2 Wins: Creighton (57), Penn State (59), Minnesota (60), Seton Hall (64), Oklahoma St. (98)
Q1: 2-10, Q2: 5-3, Q3: 3-0, Q4: 4-0
Bad Losses: None
There are two sides of the coin with Nebraska.
On the one hand, it has seven Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 wins, including a top-50 road win over Clemson.
On the other hand, the Cornhuskers have a brutal 5-12 conference record and they've yet to beat any of the top teams in the Big Ten. They're also 2-9 in their last 11 games, so momentum is by no means on their side.
There are six Big Ten teams locked into tournament spots, while Ohio State is a virtual lock and Minnesota is squarely on the bubble. It starts to become a question of how much representation the committee gives to one conference.
With road games against Michigan (9) and Michigan State (6) and a home game against Iowa (32) left on the schedule, the Cornhuskers have a prime opportunity to boost their resume.
They might need to go 2-1 in those games to have a shot, though, and that's a tall task.
Saint Mary's Gaels (39)
5 of 7
Record: 19-10, 10-4 in WCC
Quadrant 1 Wins: New Mexico St. (58)
Quadrant 2 Wins: San Francisco (51), San Diego (116)
Q1: 1-5, Q2: 2-2, Q3: 8-3, Q4: 8-0
Bad Losses: UC Irvine (91), Harvard (124), Pepperdine (176)
As usual, a good Saint Mary's team is looking up at a great Gonzaga team in the West Coast Conference standings.
The Gaels have a top-40 NET, three Quadrant 1/Quadrant 2 wins and no truly glaring losses aside from a road loss to a sub-.500 Pepperdine team.
However, they're lacking a marquee win, and their 6-9 record away from home is a bit concerning.
They'll have a chance to make their case to the selection committee when they host Gonzaga in their regular-season finale Saturday. That said, Gonzaga absolutely annihilated them when the two met earlier this year.
The Gaels were held to 25.9 percent shooting and just 1-of-13 from beyond the arc in a 94-46 shellacking, while the Bulldogs shot a blistering 58.3 percent from the floor and had four players in double figures.
Pinning all their hopes on a reversal of fortune leaves Saint Mary's with long odds to make the NCAA tournament field.
Seton Hall Pirates (64)
6 of 7
Record: 16-11, 7-8 in Big East
Quadrant 1 Wins: Kentucky (5), Maryland (23), Creighton (57)
Quadrant 2 Wins: St. John's (48), Butler (52), Creighton (57), Georgetown (74), Grand Canyon (79), Xavier (83), Miami (89)
Q1: 3-6, Q2: 7-2, Q3: 3-3, Q4: 3-0
Bad Losses: Xavier (83), DePaul (110), Saint Louis (119)
On a surface-level assessment of the resume above, Seton Hall looks like a tournament team. A closer look reveals a troubling trend.
During a 12-4 start to the season, the Pirates scored seven Quadrant 1/Quadrant 2 wins, including their marquee wins over Kentucky and Maryland.
Since Jan. 9, they've gone just 4-7 with two such wins and a pair of bad home losses against Xavier (83) and DePaul (110).
In short, this is a team that's trending down.
Games against Marquette (18) and Villanova (28) to close out the regular season will provide the perfect opportunity to show the selection committee that the Pirates are moving in the right direction.
They could just as easily hammer the final nails into the coffin.
Utah State Aggies (33)
7 of 7
Record: 22-6, 12-3 in Mountain West
Quadrant 1 Wins: Saint Mary's (39)
Quadrant 2 Wins: Fresno St. (88), UC Irvine (91)
Q1: 1-2, Q2: 2-3, Q3: 7-1, Q4: 12-0
Bad Losses: Fresno St. (88)
Utah State made the NCAA tournament nine times during a 14-year span from 1998 to 2011, but it's yet to reach March Madness since joining the Mountain West Conference in 2013.
The Aggies have the highest NET (33) of any team we've included here, and the latest Bracket Matrix has them just inside the field with an at-large bid as a No. 12 seed.
And therein lies the problem.
Unless they can find a way in the conference tournament to knock off a stacked Nevada team that beat them by 23 points earlier this season, they're going to be left hoping for an at-large bid.
And if Saint Mary's winds up on the wrong side of the bubble like we've predicted here, the Aggies won't have a single win against a tournament team.
Is a top-heavy Mountain West that has just three teams with a NET above 100—Nevada (19), Utah State (33) and Fresno State (88)—really going to be a two-bid league?
Probably not.
All stats courtesy of Sports Reference, while quadrant breakdowns come via NET Team Sheets at NCAA.org and are accurate through Feb. 27.
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