March Madness 2019 Stock Watch for Bubble Teams with 1 Month Left
Selection Sunday is a little over four weeks away, and the bubble for the 2019 men's NCAA tournament is becoming clearer by the day.
It's still far from a crystal ball, but it's nowhere near the puddle of mud that it was a couple of weeks ago. And that's largely because teams are playing their way out of the field all over the country.
In my seven years of doing bracketology and bubble work for Bleacher Report, I've probably said this every February: The bubble feels worse than ever. The number of viable "Stock Down" candidates nearly triples the number of "Stock Up" options—and most of the teams on the rise are mid-majors that are avoiding bad losses while major-conference teams crash and burn.
For every Clemson or TCU surging into the field or up the seed list with recent quality wins, there are three or four Nebraskas, North Carolina States and Oklahomas who can't buy a win.
Teams considered for this list are those that appear in at least three projected brackets in the Feb. 11 update of the Bracket Matrix but are ranked no higher than No. 8 seeds. We can argue about the appropriate size of the official bubble at this point in the season, but those are the 30 or so teams in the pool of candidates.
From there, we looked at how those teams have fared in their six most recent games. Some are red-hot. Others are ice-cold. But most are just kind of lukewarm and haven't much moved the needle during that time—or they moved it both up and down so much that the net result was a wash.
We're only interested in the hot and cold ones.
Teams are listed in no particular order, other than an oscillation between Stock Up and Stock Down.
One last note before we dive in: There's a lot of "Quadrant" discussion here. If you're unfamiliar with that terminology or want a refresher, here's the breakdown of each quadrant:
Quadrant 1: Home games against NET Nos. 1-30, neutral games vs. NET Nos. 1-50 and road games against NET Nos. 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home (31-75), neutral (51-100) and road (76-135)
Quadrant 3: Home (76-160), neutral (101-200) and road (136-240)
Quadrant 4: Home (161-353), neutral (201-353) and road (241-353)
Records, results and NET/KenPom.com rankings are current through the start of play Feb. 12.
Stock Up: Clemson Tigers
1 of 10
Resume: 15-8, KenPom No. 30, NET No. 37, Bracket Matrix No. 11 seed
Last Six Games: L at Florida State, L at NC State, W vs. Pittsburgh, W vs. Wake Forest, W at Georgia Tech, W vs. Virginia Tech
It feels right to get this ball rolling with Clemson, since the Tigers are a shining example of how weak the bubble is this year.
Two weeks ago, Clemson was 11-8 with a 1-8 record against the NET top 100. Its best win was a home game against Lipscomb. Its second-best was probably the road game against South Carolina, which has effectively no chance of getting an at-large bid. But because the Tigers had not yet suffered anything close to a bad loss, it wasn't going to take much to get them into the tournament conversation.
After three straight wins over teams in the bottom half of the ACC, they finally got their marquee win, knocking off Virginia Tech this past Saturday by a final score of 59-51.
Granted, the Hokies are a shell of what they used to be. Playing the past few games without both Justin Robinson and P.J. Horne, they have lost their way on offense. That still looks like a great win, though, and it finally gives Clemson something upon which it can hang its proverbial hat.
Out of nowhere, Clemson has gone from an afterthought in the ACC's basement to a team that would almost have to be in the NCAA tournament if it started today. And the Tigers' remaining schedule isn't too daunting. There's a road game against Louisville this coming weekend that they'll probably lose, and the home game against North Carolina on March 2 is a toss-up at best.
They easily could go 6-2 the rest of the way, though, which should be plenty to dance.
Stock Down: Nebraska Cornhuskers
2 of 10
Resume: 13-11, KenPom No. 35, NET No. 40, Bracket Matrix First Four Out
Last Six Games: L at Rutgers, L vs. Ohio State, L vs. Wisconsin, L at Illinois, L vs. Maryland, L at Purdue
The entire Big Ten bubble is in much worse shape than it was three weeks ago. What once felt like a 10-bid league is quickly trending toward perhaps seven tourney invites, with Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio State and Nebraska each dropping games left and right.
Nebraska is the most egregious offender, though.
Things have gotten ugly since the Cornhuskers lost fifth-year senior Isaac Copeland for the year to a torn ACL during the Ohio State game in late January. They already had some issues on offense, but now they're a mess, averaging 56.4 points over the past five games.
The Cornhuskers have lost seven in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests. Most of the defeats have been forgivable, but losing to both Rutgers and Illinois during a monthlong stretch devoid of any wins is far from ideal.
They're still hanging around in the top 40 in both KenPom and the NET because 10 of their 13 wins were by a margin of at least 15 points. However, the sheer number of losses and the total lack of wins over surefire tournament teams are catching up with Nebraska in a hurry.
Even if the Huskers go 5-2 the rest of the way, they'll enter the Big Ten tournament with a 18-13 record. And with games remaining at Michigan, at Michigan State and at home against Purdue and Iowa, 5-2 is a bit of a pipe dream.
The predictive analytics might love this team, but it's going to take a minor miracle for Nebraska to make the tournament.
Stock Up: Southern Conference
3 of 10
Wofford's Resume: 21-4, KenPom No. 28, NET No. 27, Bracket Matrix No. 10 seed
UNC Greensboro's Resume: 22-3, KenPom No. 82, NET No. 45, Bracket Matrix Next Four Out
Furman's Resume: 20-5, KenPom No. 59, NET No. 56, Bracket Matrix Not Seeded
Combined Record of Last Six Games: 17-1
There are a few major-conference bubble teams who look like they actually want to make the NCAA tournament. But as the wheat separates from the chaff, it's becoming clear there isn't as much wheat as usual.
The much maligned state of the Pac-12 is at the forefront of that situation, but the Big East may well be a two-bid league too. Both the Big Ten and the SEC seem to be losing multiple teams to the wrong side of the bubble as well. And the usual mid-major candidates for multiple bids (Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, American, etc.) aren't staking their claims this year.
All the while, the top teams from the Southern Conference have been crushing it.
Wofford is the one everybody talks about because the Terriers are in the top 30 in both the NET and KenPom rankings, but UNC Greensboro, Furman and East Tennessee State have been almost as impressive. Take out the games they played against each other, and those four teams are a collective 34-1 in conference play, avoiding bad losses like the plague.
(ETSU is probably out of the at-large picture with seven total losses and no Quadrant 1 wins, but having that fourth capable team in the mix certainly isn't hurting the overall strength of the league.)
Furman has the worst loss of the bunch (home game against Samford), but the Paladins also have the best win by far (at Villanova). UNC Greensboro has the best record, and it performed admirably in road losses to LSU and Kentucky.
And before you dismiss the possibility of all three teams getting in, let's not forget that the Colonial Athletic Association was a three-bid league in 2011. If these squads can avoid bad losses over the final three weeks of the regular season and then each reach the semifinals of the SoCon tournament, a three-bid Southern Conference is at least a conversation worth having.
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Stock Down: San Francisco Dons
4 of 10
Resume: 18-6, KenPom No. 47, NET No. 52, Bracket Matrix Not Seeded
Last Six Games: W vs. BYU, W vs. Portland, L at San Diego, L at Saint Mary's, L at Gonzaga, W vs. Santa Clara
When San Francisco suffered a loss at UC Santa Barbara at the end of its nonconference slate, its path to an at-large bid became relatively clear: Either win each and every remaining non-Gonzaga game, or upset the Bulldogs at least once to make up for a misstep or two.
Well, the Dons lost the home game to Gonzaga in mid-January, and the Bulldogs smoked them by 30 in Spokane, Washington, last week, which ruined the second option in that mandate. Add in the recent losses to San Diego and Saint Mary's and now it's almost certainly auto-bid or bust.
The San Diego loss was particularly painful. The Dons were up by 10 midway through the second half before the Toreros went on a 27-7 run to take a 10-point lead of their own. USF was unable to recover, and it proceeded to get out to slow starts in the subsequent losses to Saint Mary's and Gonzaga.
It's a bummer because this is clearly one of the better mid-major teams, but San Francisco went 0-4 in Quadrant 1 games and only has one Quadrant 2 win—a home game against Saint Mary's. That isn't going to cut it, even if the Dons finish out the regular season with six consecutive wins.
Stock Up: TCU Horned Frogs
5 of 10
Resume: 17-7, KenPom No. 36, NET No. 32, Bracket Matrix No. 8 seed
Last Six Games: W vs. Florida, L at Texas Tech, L at Baylor, W vs. Oklahoma State, W at Iowa State, L vs. Kansas
TCU only went 3-3 in its last six games, but the Horned Frogs were still one of the biggest winners in recent weeks.
For starters, none of the three losses was bad. They did get blown out at Texas Tech and Baylor, but losing on the road to tournament teams isn't a problem. And though the Horned Frogs lost the home game to Kansas, they were able to take the Jayhawks into overtime before letting that one slip away. That type of performance might even boost TCU's NET ranking, given the emphasis on net efficiency and scoring margin.
And at long last, TCU got a quality win, beating Iowa State on the road. The Horned Frogs were previously 0-6 in Quadrant 1 games and were starting to look like a team that was just going to blow every opportunity it was handed.
Now that they have their statement win—not to mention solid home wins over Texas, Baylor and Florida—it's time to start moving the Horned Frogs up the seed list.
This bubble story is far from finished, though.
TCU has neither a guaranteed win nor a certain loss left on its schedule. The Horned Frogs should win the home game against Oklahoma on Saturday, and they will probably lose the season finale at Texas. The five games in between are Coin Flip City, and with just one great win on the docket, any sort of losing skid could make things dicey.
Still, they are on the up and up for now and should be just three or four wins away from locking up a bid.
Stock Down: Oklahoma Sooners
6 of 10
Resume: 15-10, KenPom No. 41, NET No. 42, Bracket Matrix No. 10 seed
Last Six Games: W vs. Vanderbilt, L vs. Baylor, L at West Virginia, L vs. Iowa State, L vs. Texas Tech, L at Baylor
It is astounding how similar Oklahoma's trajectory is to last season.
The Trae Young-led Sooners started 14-2, punctuated by a nail-biter at home against TCU. But they proceeded to lose seven of their next nine games, including a road loss to the worst team in the conference. (Last year, that was Iowa State.)
The Christian James-led Sooners started 13-3, punctuated by a nail-biter at home against TCU. Since then, they have lost seven of nine, including a road loss to the worst team in the conference. (This year, it's West Virginia.)
But because the Sooners scheduled aggressively in nonconference play and performed admirably against that schedule, they are still in the tournament picture in spite of an unsightly 3-9 Big 12 record.
At some point, though, all these losses are going to catch up to Oklahoma in a big way.
At least last year's Sooners had a few great victories to fall back on. This year, their best wins were a home game against Wofford, a neutral-site game against Florida and a road game against Northwestern—each of which is not a Quadrant 1 game by a particularly wide margin, meaning those might end up as less impressive Quadrant 2 games by Selection Sunday.
The good news—should you choose to view it that way—is that Oklahoma has plenty of opportunities remaining to boost its resume with quality wins. There are road games remaining against Iowa State, Kansas State and TCU, as well as home games against Kansas and Texas. As things stand, that's four Quadrant 1 games and one strong Quadrant 2 game.
The bad news is that Oklahoma needs to win at least two of those games (as well as the home game against West Virginia) to have any realistic hope of landing in the NCAA tournament.
Stock Up: Lipscomb Bisons
7 of 10
Resume: 20-4, KenPom No. 33, NET No. 30, Bracket Matrix No. 12 seed
Last Six Games: W vs. Florida Gulf Coast, W at Stetson, W at Liberty, W vs. North Alabama, W at North Florida, W vs. Jacksonville
Lipscomb is doing a fantastic job of controlling what it can.
The Bisons are 11-0 in Atlantic Sun play, including the 20-point road win over Liberty from two weeks ago. Beating Liberty doesn't mean much in most years, but that was an incredible performance this season, considering the Flames won at UCLA and gave Alabama quite a scare on a "neutral" court in Huntsville, Alabama.
If the Bisons can beat Liberty again Wednesday, they should finish the regular season on a 16-game winning streak and ought to be able to still get in if they were to lose to Liberty in the A-Sun tournament.
Lipscomb is also benefiting nicely from what it cannot control.
Its key nonconference win over TCU looks even better now with the Horned Frogs surging a bit. The Bisons' 17-point loss at Clemson is looking more forgivable as the Tigers have won four straight to sneak into the projected field. And even getting swept by Belmont doesn't seem so bad with the Bruins winning 10 of their last 11 and looking like a reasonable at-large candidate.
If the selection committee takes the time to look at Lipscomb's resume, it will see that this team is clearly more deserving than a squad like NC State, Florida, UCF or Temple, each of which blew a ton of chances and suffered at least one bad loss.
Stock Down: Ole Miss Rebels
8 of 10
Resume: 16-7, KenPom No. 40, NET No. 36, Bracket Matrix No. 9 seed
Last Six Games: L at Alabama, L vs. Iowa State, L at Florida, L vs. Mississippi State, W vs. Texas A&M, W at Georgia
In our Jan. 21 projection of the field, we had Ole Miss as our top No. 6 seed at No. 21 overall. At the time, the Rebels were 14-3 with a road win over Mississippi State, a home win over Auburn and no bad losses. We didn't quite understand how head coach Kermit Davis had taken what was supposed to be the worst team in the SEC and turned it into a contender, but there was no denying the strength of the resume.
The following day, the Rebels started a four-game losing streak and began to slide in a hurry.
Fortunately, there weren't any bad losses in the mix. Still, having four straight losses is never a good thing.
They've stopped the bleeding with back-to-back wins over Texas A&M and Georgia, but beating a couple of sub-.500 teams didn't do anything to right those previous wrongs. Ole Miss will either need to win the road game against Auburn on Wednesday or one of the remaining home games against Tennessee (Feb. 27) or Kentucky (March 5) if it wants to re-stake its claim as a team deserving of a single-digit seed.
Should the Rebels lose all three of those games and drop to 3-10 against Quadrant 1, they would still be in good shape, provided they don't lose any other games along the way. They still play Missouri twice, host Georgia and have road games against Arkansas and South Carolina.
Anything short of a 5-0 record against those teams from the bottom half of the SEC standings, and serious bubble trouble will be brewing.
Stock Up: Washington Huskies
9 of 10
Resume: 19-5, KenPom No. 37, NET No. 31, Bracket Matrix No. 8 seed
Last Six Games: W at Oregon, W at Oregon State, W vs. USC, W vs. UCLA, W at Arizona, L at Arizona State
The last time Washington played, it suffered arguably its worst loss of the season.
Normally, it's hard to argue that a team in that situation is a "Stock Up" candidate. However, the Huskies entered that road game against Arizona State having won five consecutive games against NET top-100 opponents. (Plus, there just aren't that many bubble teams playing well lately.)
There aren't any great wins to be found in this year's Pac-12, but that quintet of good victories did wonders for this resume. Washington was barely on the right side of the bubble in our mid-January bracket projections, but it is rather securely on the No. 8 seed line now.
It's still a bit of a house of cards, though.
The Hukies' only Quadrant 1 win was the road game against Oregon, which won't count as a Quadrant 1 game any longer if the Ducks slip six spots in the NET rankings. Similarly, the road loss to Arizona State could drop from Quadrant 1 to Quadrant 2 if the Sun Devils slip from No. 72 to No. 76 or worse. If that happens, the Huskies would be 0-3 in Quadrant 1 games with a pair of Quadrant 2 losses, which is far from pretty.
If the Huskies win their seven remaining regular-season games, no big deal. They'll still get in with room to spare. But it would only take one Quadrant 3 loss to make Washington's bid much less of a certainty—and I believe six of the seven will be Quadrant 3 games, so they need to be almost perfect to avoid that.
Stock Down: North Carolina State Wolfpack
10 of 10
Resume: 17-7, KenPom No. 39, NET No. 35, Bracket Matrix No. 10 seed
Last Six Games: L at Louisville, W vs. Clemson, L vs. Virginia, L vs. Virginia Tech, L at North Carolina, W at Pittsburgh
In early January, NC State was a NET top-10 team with a 13-1 record. The Wolfpack did not play a good nonconference schedule. (They are actually dead last nationally in NC SOS rank.) But they blew out teams left and right and looked the part of a contender.
Since then, they're 4-6 with an ugly loss to Wake Forest and nary a statement victory.
They almost scored a colossal win over Virginia, taking the Cavaliers to overtime before losing by one. It was a quality loss, but it was still another missed opportunity for a team that is now 1-6 in Quadrant 1 games. A home game against Auburn—which is 0-6 in Quadrant 1 games, for what it's worth—was the only victory in that bunch.
The Wolfpack are still in the projected tournament picture but not by much. They seem to be dropping at a rate of one seed line per week, which has led to the now-or-never two-game stretch in the next few days. They host Syracuse on Wednesday night and travel to Durham to face Duke on Saturday.
As long as NC State wins one of those games, it should be OK. After that, four of its final five regular-season games are against Boston College (twice), Wake Forest (home) and Georgia Tech (home). Combine those four presumed wins with a victory over Syracuse or Duke this week, and the Wolfpack will have at least 10 ACC wins. That ought to be enough this year, even though there might not be any great victories.
Conversely, if they go 0-2 this week, they probably need to be 5-0 the rest of the way, which would mean a road win over Florida State on March 2. Either way, they have not made this easy on themselves.
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