25 NBA Free Agents-to-Be Who Could Be Trade-Deadline Bait

Prospect of a blockbuster-starved NBA trade deadline got you down? You're not alone. The superstar auction block is barren, if it exists at all, and everyone who's anyone is bracing for Feb. 7 to pass without major wrinkles.

Maybe the Memphis Grizzlies save us. They've started fielding offers for Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, according to ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski. In the event they don't burn their roster to the ground, well, we'll survive.

What the league's trade market lacks in pomp and circumstance, it makes up for with volume. The rumor mill always reaches fever pitch in the 11th hour, and this summer's free-agent surplus paves the way for a bunch of futzing and fiddling as teams look to capitalize on players they don't plan to pay.

To adequately sort through this mess of contract-year names, we'll be looping candidates into groups:

• Restricted Free Agents: Self-explanatory.
• Implicit No-Trade Clauses: Players who must consent to a trade because they'll be stripped of their Bird rights if sent to another team.
• Non-Bird and Early-Bird Free Agents: Players wrapping up a one- or two-year deal who didn't sign their contract using Bird rights.
• Full-Bird Free Agents: Players without restrictions. Their new teams would be able to go over the salary cap to re-sign them regardless of cost.
• Main Attractions: Full-Bird free agents who will generate the most buzz.

Anyone with a player option for next season is eligible for inclusion—provided they're likely or rumored to decline it. In other words: Kent Bazemore and Jeff Teague aren't making cameos. Team options and non-guaranteed salaries do not count, and every pending free agent must be an established trade chip or have a feasible path to getting dealt.

Kawhi Leonard (player option) isn't getting a nod just because he purchased a house in San Diego, which happens to be closer to the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers than Toronto Raptors. The Sacramento Kings are too good to just sell Iman Shumpert. Etc., etc., etc.

Restricted Free Agents

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings

Willie Cauley-Stein is playing well enough to get sort-of paid this summer. That's great for the Kings' immediate playoff push, but his next contract complicates their outlook. 

Marvin Bagley III needs to play more center if they're serious about contending in the near future, and paying $10 million or so per year for another big when they have Nemanja Bjelica and Harry Giles (I still believe!) isn't especially ideal.

Hoping restricted free agency squeezes Cauley-Stein into a below-market deal is acceptable. The Kings can let him walk without much blowback if his offer sheets approach ridiculous. But matching rights on a youngish center with an expanding offensive arsenal will appeal to some teams—particularly if Sacramento is moving him while using its cap space to take on a longer-term pact.

Best Fit: Washington Wizards

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brooklyn Nets

Though the currently playoff-bound Nets don't profile as sellers, they should gauge the market for Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. They already paid Spencer Dinwiddie, and D'Angelo Russell (restricted) is playing himself into a fat contract. They're not footing the bill for everyone.

Hollis-Jefferson won't yield more than a low-end pick or prospect. The Nets should take it. His broken jumper isn't worth his defensive malleability—even his mid-range game is blah this year—and the emergence of Rodions Kurucs has given them a more tantalizing combo wing to develop over the long haul.

Best Fit: Charlotte Hornets

Tyus Jones, Minnesota Timberwolves

Some of the Timberwolves' best assets won't get shopped unless they're holding a fire sale. Tyus Jones should be on the chopping block no matter what.

Re-signing him while staying below the luxury tax is no longer an issue. The Jimmy Butler trade took care of it. But the Timberwolves will be shelling out max money for Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins next season, with Dario Saric's next deal on the horizon (2020). They cannot justify making so many re-investments in their core when they're no longer postseason locks.

Jones' outside shooting and finishing around the rim have cratered this year, but his defense is legit. He guards like he's taller than 6'2" and ranks fourth among point guards in ESPN's Defensive Real-Plus Minus. And at 22, he can fit into every team's timeline.

Best fit: Phoenix Suns

Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons

Stanley Johnson's availability shouldn't be tied to whether the Pistons pivot into a second-half tank. They have no business being part of his next contract.

His defense warrants court time. He can hang one-on-one with most guards and bigger wings. Everything else about his game is unimpressive. His jumper could be a lost cause, and Detroit hasn't consistently plumbed the depths of his half-court playmaking.

Capped-out teams desperate for defensive flexibility—and who have confidence in their shooting coaches—should see if the Pistons are willing to sell low rather than lose him for nothing or risk entering the tax to finance his next contract.

Best fit: San Antonio Spurs

Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte Hornets

League sources told Sporting News' Sean Deveney that Charlotte is open to dealing Frank Kaminsky. Which, duh.

Paying Kemba Walker will, at best, bring the Hornets dangerously close to the 2019-20 tax line ($132 million). They won't have the equity to burn on Kaminsky no matter how cheap he comes. Plus, they don't seem particularly interested in keeping him. He remains out of the rotation despite Cody Zeller's right hand injury.

The Hornets are hoping they can use Kaminsky to pawn off the balance of Nicolas Batum's deal (two years, $52.7 million), according to Deveney. They'll have to keep dreaming. It isn't happening. If Kaminsky's mid-range game, so-so three-point touch and improving standstill rim protection can get them a nice second-round pick or dice-roll prospect, they should move him.

Best Fit: Milwaukee Bucks

Emmanuel Mudiay, New York Knicks

Emmanuel Mudiay has slowed down over the past month-and-a-half and isn't someone who will fetch a premium for matching rights. His defense is a disaster, and he's neither a good finisher around the rim nor a dependable table-setter.

Still, he's hitting a great percentage of his long twos and doing a better job of probing set defenses. Put him on a team that can cover up for him at the other end, and he'd have utility as a score-first point man.

Granted, it won't take much for the Knicks to resist trading him. Frank Ntilikina is playing more, but they haven't shown much faith in him overall.

Without any other worthwhile point guard prospects, flipping Mudiay isn't going to top their to-do list. But signing him to a multiyear deal this summer shouldn't be a priority, either.

Best Fit: Orlando Magic

Kelly Oubre Jr., Phoenix Suns

Phoenix isn't about to complain about its wealth of wings. Deep perimeter rotations are a commodity. But the Suns have to figure out whether they can afford to retain the centerpiece of the Trevor Ariza trade.

Devin Booker's max extension kicks in next season. They already paid T.J. Warren. Josh Jackson's third-year salary is nothing to sneeze at ($7.1 million). Mikal Bridges is cheap, but his minutes aren't going anywhere.

This isn't to say the Suns have to move Oubre. They're limited in where they could send him. He cannot be traded in combination with another player after coming over from Washington, so including him in a larger deal is out of the question. But wings are among the likeliest players to get overpaid in this summer's cap-rich market. The Suns should at least see what his Bird rights can get them.

Best Fit: Philadelphia 76ers 

Terry Rozier, Boston Celtics

Terry Rozier, in all likelihood, isn't going anywhere. Boston lacks the motivation to find him a new home.

"We're always looking to upgrade our team if those opportunities present themselves. But I think that's going to be tough," team president Danny Ainge said on 98.5 The Sports Hub's Toucher & Rich show (via NBC Sports' Darren Hartwell). "As far as trading players, I don't really see much out there. We have a lot of good ones. It's hard to get better players than we have."

Holding onto Rozier makes sense if the Celtics aren't buying Kyrie Irving's preseason pledge of allegiance. And even if they know he's coming back, they're a luxury-tax team. Rozier's $3.1 million salary isn't netting them anything or anyone substantial without including filler. His lackluster efficiency isn't helping matters. He may be more valuable to them as postseason insurance than as a trade asset.

At the same time, if they can turn Rozier into a pick or a player on a longer, cost-controlled contract, they'll have beefed up their asset chest in advance of this summer's potential Anthony Davis sweepstakes.

Best Fit: Orlando Magic

Implicit No-Trade Clauses

Josh Lefkowitz/Getty Images

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Los Angeles Lakers

After a brief stint as the Houston Rockets' "top target," per the New York Times' Marc Stein, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's name has faded from the rumor mill. It'll probably make a return ahead of the Feb. 7 deadline, but also, maybe not.

Caldwell-Pope's expiring contract aligns with the Lakers' plans to poach another superstar free agent this summer. They're not going to move him while taking back salary beyond 2018-19.

Getting him to waive his no-trade clause is a matter of finding suitors that have a larger role waiting for him. Sussing out a return that won't compromise next year's books and does something to help this season's roster is the bigger ask. It'll get a lot easier if the Lakers are willing to package him with a future pick.

Best Fit: Indiana Pacers

Wayne Ellington, Miami Heat

The Heat are reluctant to promise Wayne Ellington a role or change of scenery going forward, according to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson. Something needs to give.

Depth is nice, and Miami isn't drowning in above-average three-point shooters. But Ellington has not played significant minutes since the beginning of December. Convincing him to waive his no-trade clause is a non-issue. Ditto for finding a taker.

Contenders typically have a soft spot for pinball shooters even if they're defensive liabilities. Some of those contenders own trade exceptions large enough to take in Ellington's $6.3 million salary. And wouldn't you know it, the Heat are into the luxury tax for almost that exact amount.

Offloading Ellington for a nonessential pick won't sit well. Miami doesn't have money to spend on meaningful free agents this summer, so his Early Bird rights come in handy if Rodney McGruder (restricted) proves too expensive. 

That's not enough. The Heat are a fringe playoff team with big-picture payroll warts. If they can duck the tax by cutting ties with a player they're not currently using, they have to consider it.

Best Fit: Denver Nuggets

Rodney Hood, Cleveland Cavaliers

Rodney Hood flashed some off-the-dribble resourcefulness earlier in the season, but he's mostly been a drag since his latest return from a left Achilles issue. 

More to the point, the Cavaliers aren't in a position to pay him over the summer. He hasn't played well enough, and they shouldn't be saddling themselves with long-term money so early into their rebuild. (The Kevin Love extension remains weird.)

Losing Bird rights stings for a player who missed the boat in restricted free agency, but Hood has nothing to lose if Cleveland isn't going to keep him anyway. He'd do more for his stock by joining a playoff hopeful light on scoring wings off the bench. 

Best Fit: Los Angeles Clippers

Derrick Rose, Minnesota Timberwolves

Derrick Rose is having one helluva season. His three-point clip is at an all-time high, and he's one of just nine players averaging more than 23 points and five assists per 36 minutes with a true shooting percentage better than 55.

His company: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James and Damian Lillard.

The Timberwolves have the incentive to keep Rose even if the playoffs fall out of reach. His Early Bird rights mean something if they don't want to pay Tyus Jones or don't believe in Jeff Teague, and they're not commanding a small ransom for his services when he's on a $1.5 million contract and doesn't come with Bird rights.

Attach him to a more expensive player, like Taj Gibson or Jerryd Bayless, and things get interesting—infinitely so if Minnesota isn't opposed to absorbing 2019-20 salary.

Best Fit: Memphis Grizzlies (if they don't blow it up)

Non-Bird and Early-Bird Free Agents

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Trevor Ariza, Washington Wizards

Trevor Ariza is only getting rerouted for a second time this season if the Wizards blow it up—something they're no longer likely to do after winning seven of 11 to creep back into the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

Of course, disaster is just one Bradley Beal slump away. Ariza is shooting the ball better over the past few games, but if Washington endures another downward spiral in the coming week, the idea of his three-and-D skill set will draw some interest.

Even that might not push the Wizards into action. Ariza's trade restriction isn't a real obstacle—he cannot be dealt in combination with another player—but their tax concerns are an issue. Washington needs significant cap relief or a similarly priced expiring contract and sweetener to get the ball rolling. Otherwise, Otto Porter Jr.'s long-term money (two years, $55.7 million) is more likely to go.

Best Fit: Los Angeles Lakers

Dewayne Dedmon, Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta is playing plucky basketball over the past month. Dewayne Dedmon is a key part of that spunk. He's shooting almost 38 percent from deep on more than four attempts per 36 minutes, and since their Dec. 18 victory over the Wizards, the Hawks are outscoring opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions(!) with him and John Collins on the court.

This changes nothing. The Hawks are among the league's only trade-deadline sellers, and teams are calling about Dedmon, per The Athletic's Shams Charania. The market for bigs is wonky, but he intrigues as a low-cost floor-spacer, rebounder and rim protector.

Best Fit: Houston Rockets

Kyle O'Quinn

Free Kyle O'Quinn. The Pacers don't have any room for him. Doug McDermott, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner and Thaddeus Young have the 4-5 rotation on lock, and any minutes that open up at power forward are more likely going to TJ Leaf.

So please: Someone. Anyone. Free. Kyle. O'Quinn.

Best Fit: Philadelphia 76ers

Justin Holiday, Memphis Grizzlies

As their proximity to the West's playoff bubble grows bleaker, the Grizzlies have started listening to offers for Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, according to ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski. And if they're open to moving them, they better damn sure be willing to ship out anyone else who isn't named Jaren Jackson Jr.  

Justin Holiday is a must-trade in any teardown. The Grizzlies forked over two unprotected second-round picks to get him with the intention of making the playoffs. They need to recoup some of that squandered value.

It won't be easy. Holiday cannot be dealt in combination with another player and hasn't played well since arriving. But his Early Bird rights give him some curb appeal to teams pining after backcourt length and shooting.

Best Fit: New Orleans Pelicans

Noah Vonleh, New York Knicks

Ready to have some fun with numbers?

Here's every player averaging more than 10 rebounds, two assists, one block and one three-pointer per 36 minutes: Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Vucevic and...Noah Vonleh. 

Take this with a grain of salt, but only one. Vonleh is having the best season of his career. New York is throwing him on some of the most versatile scorers, both inside and out, and head coach David Fizdale has given him the license to run fast breaks.

Finding a suitable trade for him is difficult. The Knicks aren't getting a primo asset or dumping Tim Hardaway Jr.'s contract as part of any deal when Vonleh doesn't come with Bird rights. But his two-way play is enough to get them something, even if they need to include other salary to make it work.

The Sixers might be interested in talking shop, per the New York Daily News' Stefan Bondy. Unless the Knicks are fairly certain Vonleh won't cost the moon to bring back next season, they should keep an open mind at the bargaining table.

Best Fit: Philadelphia 76ers

Full-Bird Free Agents

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Reggie Bullock, Detroit Pistons

Reggie Bullock is indispensable if the Pistons fancy themselves playoff contenders through Feb. 7. They're terribly thin on wings who can shoot, and they don't have the cap space or trade assets to replace his outside touch and operable defense.

If they drop any lower than ninth place in the East's standings, the Pistons will have to weigh alternative measures.

Using Bullock to get out from under Reggie Jackson's or Jon Leuer's deals is a reach. Contenders aren't keen on adding money, and the league's primary salary-dumping grounds don't have the timeline to treat soon-to-be free agents who are approaching their 28th birthday as assets. 

Would an ultra-aggressive title chaser cough up a first-rounder? Would the Pistons be willing to take on a less savory pact to open their options? If things get bad enough, it won't hurt to look.

Best Fit: Oklahoma City Thunder

JaMychal Green, Memphis Grizzlies

It isn't clear whether the Grizzlies' willingness to trade Mike Conley and Marc Gasol signals the start of a full-scale teardown. It should, but they've ignored the reality of their situation before.

Whatever the Grizzlies' plans, JaMychal Green is redundant with Jaren Jackson Jr. in the fold. Playing them together is interesting in theory, but the returns aren't good. They actually stink. Memphis is a minus-11.2 points per 100 possessions with both on the court, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Green isn't due a huge raise from the $7.7 million he's earning, which could coax the Grizzlies into letting him stick around. All of their expiring contracts might just be off limits as they look to clean up the ledger. But Green is an efficient low-volume three-point shooter who matches up with 4s and 5s on defense, and Memphis needs to bolster its asset cupboard.

His should be a name we hear more about leading into the deadline.

Best Fit: Brooklyn Nets

Richaun Holmes, Phoenix Suns

Richaun Holmes is having a moment in Phoenix. The Suns should see if it's worth anything.

Losing Holmes to free agency isn't a major concern. He's not an overbid candidate. Few bigs are.

But the Suns shouldn't be paying too much for a backup center with Deandre Ayton in tow. He's not making chump change on his rookie-scale deal ($9.6 million next season), and Phoenix has made enough long-term commitments for a team without a clear, immediate path back into the playoff picture.

Best Fit: Dallas Mavericks

Jeremy Lin, Atlanta Hawks

Like teammates Kent Bazemore and Dewayne Dedmon, Jeremy Lin is up for grabs, according to Stein. He should top the wish list for any team that needs playmaking and finishing.

A clean health bill suits Lin. He's getting to the foul line and shooting better than 53 percent on drives. His three-point splits are discouraging, but he's a point guard offenses can deploy in tandem with other primary ball-handlers. 

If the Hawks are open to taking on 2019-20 salary, dangling Lin as the return should easily net them a first-round pick.

Best fit: Detroit Pistons

Garrett Temple, Memphis Grizzlies

Another Grizzly!

Garrett Temple doesn't do anything exceptional in volume, but he's a rock-solid gap-filler. He can initiate some action against set defenses, is shooting almost 39 percent on catch-and-fire threes and has the menacing wingspan to chase around certain wings. 

Offenses are torching the Grizzlies whenever he plays the 3, but they're a plus-3.4 points per 100 possessions with an elite defensive rating when his small forward minutes come beside Kyle Anderson and Marc Gasol, according to Cleaning the Glass. Teams more open to leaning on a similar 4-5 model can acquire Temple and count on deploying him as a wing. 

Best Fit: Portland Trail Blazers 

Main Attractions

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Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies 

Marc Gasol's 2019-20 player option warps his trade value from all directions.

Certain teams won't trade for him while surrendering anything of substance if they don't know he'll be back next season. On the flip side, prospective suitors who hope to make a free-agency splash will only ascribe value to Gasol if he's coming off their books this summer.

The latter is more damning. Openings at center are scarce, and some of the best Gasol landing spots might flinch at paying him $25.6 million in 2019-20. As ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton wrote:

"That concern applies to both the Dallas Mavericks and LA Clippers, two teams in the hunt for playoff spots in the Western Conference who can clear max-level cap space this July. Dallas could upgrade at center by swapping DeAndre Jordan, who's in the final year of his contract, for Gasol. At the same time, that prospect looks less appealing now that the Mavericks have lost four in a row since J.J. Barea's injury to drop five games out of the eighth seed in the Western Conference."

Before Memphis began exploring nuclear scenarios, Stein reported there was a "growing belief around the league" that Gasol would decline his player option and hit free agency. That might put a few prospective admirers at ease. 

Then again, next year will be his age-35 season, and $25.6 million is a lot of money.

Best Fit: Los Angeles Clippers (assuming Gasol plans to opt out)

Terrence Ross, Orlando Magic 

As Yahoo Sports' Chris Haynes noted on the Dunc'd On podcast, Orlando has quietly opened for business—which is a smart move.

The Magic are still within four games of a playoff spot, but they need to overtake three of the Nets, Hornets, Pistons, Heat and Wizards to secure their bid. That won't happen. FiveThirtyEight gives them a sub-15 percent chance of cracking the postseason.

Terrence Ross has cooled in recent weeks, but the demand for wings who can shoot and make plays off the bounce persists. And while he can't bully his way to the rim, he's burying 40 percent of his pull-up threes, and teams can weaponize him with constant motion off the ball.

Best Fit: New Orleans Pelicans

Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic

Jettisoning Nikola Vucevic would be a tough pill for Orlando to swallow. His numbers melt minds. DeMarcus Cousins is the only other player in league history to clear 20 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, one block and one made three-pointer per 36 minutes.

And yet, if the Magic trade him, they cannot hope to get a fair return.

Again: The center position is oversaturated. Vucevic has improved enough defensively to earn post-modern status, but his free agency coupled with the sheer number of teams projected to have cap space this summer severely hinders his midseason market.

Snagging both a first-round pick and a prospect without stomaching bad salary will be a chore. The Magic may have to settle. Letting his situation play out into free agency doesn't help them. Vucevic turns 29 in October, and his next deal might not be considered trade-friendly. They also cannot hope to properly balance the frontcourt with him, Mo Bamba, Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac in the rotation.

Best Fit: Los Angeles Lakers

Bonus Inclusions

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Indiana Pacers Free Agents (?)

Victor Oladipo is set to miss the rest of the season after he ruptured the quad tendon in his right knee. What Indiana does now is anyone's guess.

Throwing in the towel is off the table. The Pacers have played themselves too far up the Eastern Conference standings to tank, and unlike last season, they've shown they can tread water without their star. They've outscored opponents by 5.3 points per 100 possessions in the time Oladipo spent off the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. They're going to make the playoffs. 

Will they look for a trade that fills some aspects of their shot-creation void? Do they swing for the fences and make a play for Mike Conley, knowing they're not a free-agency destination, and that they're arming the backcourt for both now and next year?

Could a brutal few games following Oladipo's prognosis coax them into shopping one of their many expiring contracts to shore up their asset base for an aggressive offseason?

The Pacers have options. And while Oladipo's absence probably means Bojan Bogdanovic and Thaddeus Young are untouchable, Darren Collison, Tyreke Evans and Cory Joseph will all be attention-grabbers if Indiana makes them available.

Salary-Matching Tools

These expiring contracts will have value if their teams agree to take back longer-term pacts, but they're not desirable as primary targets. Inclusions are limited to players who make at least $8 million, since that allows even the most inflexible squads to absorb more than $10 million in salary:

• Jerryd Bayless ($8.6 million)
• Alec Burks ($11.5 million)
• Taj Gibson ($14 million)
• Marcin Gortat ($13.6 million)
• Enes Kanter ($18.6 million)
• Kosta Koufos ($8.7 million)
• Wesley Matthews ($18.6 million)
• Zach Randolph ($11.7 million)
• Rajon Rondo ($9 million)

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference and accurate leading into games on Jan. 24. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders and RealGM.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by SLC Dunk's Andrew Bailey.