Early Mike Trout MLB Free-Agency Landing Spot Odds After 2020 Season
Mike Trout's free agency is going to be a game-changer for Major League Baseball.
This is assuming that Trout does indeed reach free agency after his six-year, $144.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels runs out after 2020.
Disclaimers aside, Trout is nonetheless the quintessential definition of a superstar. Per Baseball Reference, he's accumulated more wins above replacement through the age of 26 than any position player in MLB history. He's baseball's best hitter, as well as one of the sport's top baserunners and defensive center fielders.
If Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado don't get there first, Trout figures to become MLB's first $400 million man in two years. Even a $500 million contract may not be out of reach.
This raises the question of which teams will be able to afford him, as well as which might be the most hell-bent on signing him. To these ends, we've come up with some early odds for eight potential suitors, plus the field.
Chicago Cubs
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If nothing else, the Chicago Cubs are a potential suitor for Trout on the grounds of being a big spender.
They pushed their Opening Day payroll to a franchise-record $182.4 million in 2018, and they're currently projected to blow right past that to $210.8 million for 2019. Though details are scarce, the TV network the Cubs are putting together will presumably help to keep future payrolls sky-high.
Additionally, Yu Darvish and Jason Heyward are the only Cubs players with guaranteed salaries beyond 2020. That hypothetically means there's plenty of leeway for Chicago to add Trout to its outfield, which is presently long on depth but short on stardom.
What muddies the picture a bit, however, is whether the Cubs will prioritize extending Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, both of whom are due to become free agents after 2021. And since only Darvish is guaranteed anything beyond 2020, the Cubs will soon have to begin a massive starting rotation renovation.
All of this could make signing Trout less of a priority and more of a luxury for the Cubs. For his part, Trout might prefer to stick in Southern California or move closer to his native New Jersey anyway.
Odds: 19-1
Chicago White Sox
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The Chicago White Sox aren't as big of a spender as their crosstown rivals. They peaked with a $127.8 million payroll in 2011, and they're projected to be under $100 million in 2019.
However, the White Sox do have one advantage. Only Tim Anderson has a guaranteed salary after 2020, and he won't be in line for eight figures until 2023.
That long-term outlook will change if the White Sox make good on their spirited pursuit of Machado, who would be teaming up with good pals Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay. He's likely to cost Chicago at least $25 million per year.
For the most part, though, the White Sox's future rosters will mainly be comprised of young, cheap stars who they've accumulated throughout their rebuilding process. There thus could be enough room for both Machado and Trout, the latter of whom happens to own a 1.157 career OPS at Guaranteed Rate Field.
But while the White Sox could conceivably make Trout a competitive offer, their pockets might not be deep enough to make him the best offer. Like the Cubs, they also may be sidelined by his geographical preferences.
Odds: 15-1
Los Angeles Dodgers
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If sticking in Southern California is a priority for Trout, he could always jump ship from the Angels to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers had a year-end payroll of darn near $300 million four years ago, and their revenue streams include MLB's biggest local TV deal and best attendance figures. To boot, only Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen are owed big money after 2020, and free agency will beckon both after 2021.
Even if the Dodgers do win an elusive World Series championship in the next two years, that won't stop them from trying to win it every year. After years of frustration in Anaheim, Trout may only be too happy to climb aboard.
"You want to be in an atmosphere where [the organization] wants to win," he said this past September, according to Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. "I want to come to the ballpark playing for something. That's everybody's goal here as a player. You don't want to come playing for nothing."
Yet, the Dodgers' long-term books are so clean in part because they prefer short-term contracts. Per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, they also want to stay under the luxury-tax threshold through 2022.
These factors have effectively sidelined the Dodgers in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes this winter. History might repeat itself with the Trout sweepstakes in two years.
Odds: 10-1
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Washington Nationals
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After years of being joined at the hip with Harper in the public consciousness, it would be oddly ironic if Trout stepped into Harper's old shoes with the Washington Nationals.
The Nats have been a reliable spender since their rise to power back in 2012, and their projected $199.4 million payroll for 2019 would be their biggest yet. As Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin can vouch, general manager Mike Rizzo isn't shy about handing out long-term megadeals.
Albeit for a lot of money, Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin are the only players guaranteed to still be on the Nats after 2020. The Nats might look to save some of the financial flexibility they'll gain between now and then for Trout.
Trout would slide in between Juan Soto and Victor Robles to form the ultimate outfield. To boot, he'd be playing only about three hours down the road from his hometown of Millville, New Jersey.
However, the Nats may do their usual thing and act like a win-now team. That would entail extending Anthony Rendon and/or loading up on free agents after 2019. Doing so would inflate their payroll and make it that much harder to win a bidding war for Trout after 2020.
Odds: 8-1
New York Yankees
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The Bronx is closer to Millville than Washington D.C. It's also the home of the New York Yankees, who traditionally spend a ton of money in pursuit of championships.
Despite appearances to the contrary, so it goes even now. The Yankees opened last year at $166.1 million, and while they've thus far avoided Machado and Harper, they're still projected to cross back over the $200 million threshold in 2019.
The Yankees' alleged cheapness is more so an aversion to risk. As a result, only Giancarlo Stanton, Aroldis Chapman and Zach Britton are under contract past 2020. That would seem to equal plenty of room for Trout.
For his part, Trout may be attracted not just to annual shots at World Series glory, but also the chance to play at Yankee Stadium. He's raked a 1.231 OPS in 20 career games there.
However, the Yankees' long-term books might not stay clean for long. They're due to have some major holes to fill after 2019, and they might soon consider extensions for Aaron Judge and Luis Severino, among others.
These factors could make the Yankees all the more willing to trust top prospect Estevan Florial to handle center field starting in 2020.
Odds: 7-1
Boston Red Sox
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Compared to other East Coast teams, the Boston Red Sox won't have proximity to Millville to offer Trout. If they want him, nothing less than the best offer will do.
If Trout was a free agent right now, this would be impossible. The defending World Series champs are projected to open 2019 with a $238.4 million payroll, with a luxury-tax bill that's even higher. They can barely afford relief pitchers, much less a single superstar.
Over the next two seasons, however, the Red Sox have a ton of money set to come off the books. Assuming J.D. Martinez opts out after 2019 or 2020, only David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Dustin Pedroia and Christian Vazquez will still be under contract come 2021.
With their farm system all dried out, the Red Sox won't have much choice but to spend if they want to keep pace with the Yankees. To this end, they could do worse than signing the best player in baseball.
Then again, the Red Sox could just as easily take that sentiment and apply it to Mookie Betts. He's fresh off leading Trout and everyone else in WAR in 2018, and he's also due to become a free agent after 2020. If the Red Sox can't extend him before then, they might prioritize bringing him back over adding Trout.
Odds: 6-1
Los Angeles Angels
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It wouldn't be too dramatic, but Trout staying with the Angels for the long haul is practical.
Although Trout has played in only one postseason series and three playoff games since he's been with the Angels, he's nonetheless enjoyed himself.
"I enjoy coming to the ballpark. It [stinks] when it's September and you're out of it," he said, per Fletcher. "But when I was a kid, they took a chance on me. We'll see how it goes. I've got a couple more years and we'll go from there."
If the Angels have it their way, Trout won't even reach free agency. According to Jon Heyman of Fancred, the Angels have mulled a contract that would keep Trout in Anaheim for the rest of his career.
The Angels won't be out of the picture even if Trout does make it to free agency. Only the Dodgers have a bigger local TV deal to draw from, and the Angels will finally be free of Albert Pujols' albatross contract after 2021. Trout may also like the sound of a lasting partnership with two-way wunderkind Shohei Ohtani.
There is, however, one team that looms as a bigger threat to steal Trout from the Angels than all the rest.
Odds: 5-1
Philadelphia Phillies
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According to Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, the Philadelphia Phillies went into this offseason with one eye on Harper and Machado and the other on Trout. Their ultimate dream scenario may involve Trout and Harper patrolling the same outfield one day.
Joining Philadelphia may be Trout's own dream scenario. Philadelphia is less than an hour's drive from Millville. Trout grew up rooting for Philly teams, and he's made no secret of his ongoing Eagles fandom.
It would take a lot of money to employ both Harper and Trout, but perhaps not more than the Phillies can afford. They peaked with a $177.7 million payroll in 2014, two years before their $2.5 billion TV deal kicked in. As of now, only Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, Odubel Herrera and Scott Kingery are under contract beyond 2020.
To complete their eventual pitch to Trout, the Phillies only need to become World Series contenders in the next two seasons. They took a step in that direction with an 80-win 2018 campaign. They now have a blend of youthful and veteran talent that should lead to further steps toward title contention.
Altogether, the Phillies should be able to offer Trout everything he could ask for.
Odds: 4-1
The Field
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Those eight teams may look like the best bets to land Trout after 2020, but the field won't go down without a good fight.
The Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers, for example, might attempt to keep Trout in the American League West. Though they each have their payroll limits, none of the three (see here, here and here) has much on the books beyond 2020.
Over in the National League West, the San Francisco Giants should have a better idea of what their future looks like by 2020. If their current retooling phase points them in a good direction, they might jump the gun on their post-2021 payroll relief by signing Trout to be their next cornerstone superstar.
Provided they make enough progress with their own rebuild over the next two years, the Detroit Tigers might also return to their old big-spending ways to accommodate Trout. After all, only Miguel Cabrera is on their books after 2021.
To throw a few more candidates out there, the St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are contenders who might extend their finances for Trout.
Odds: 19-1
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference. Payroll and contract data courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource.
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