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New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Odds, AFC Championship Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistJanuary 15, 2019

El quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15), de los Chiefs de Kansas City, se prepara para el duelo divisional de los playoffs de la NFL ante los Colts de Indianápolis, en Kansas City, Missouri, el sábado 12 de enero de 2019. (AP Foto/Charlie Neibergall)
Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

A rematch of one of the most exciting games of the regular season will see the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (13-4) host the second-seeded New England Patriots (12-5) this time around on Sunday as small home favorites at sportsbooks in the AFC Championship Game.

The Chiefs fell to the Patriots 43-40 in the Week 6 Sunday night matchup but still managed to cover the spread as 3.5-point road underdogs.

           

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total is at 57, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

        

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England obviously has experience on its side here, playing in the conference title game for the eighth straight year. That is a huge advantage for the Patriots, although they earned the chance to host this game five of the previous seven years.

The Patriots lost on the road to the Denver Broncos with Peyton Manning under center the other two times and will be attempting to make it to the Super Bowl for the third consecutive season.

New England quarterback Tom Brady shredded the Kansas City defense with 340 passing yards in the last meeting while rookie running back Sony Michel rushed for 106 yards and two touchdowns. A repeat of those performances will get them to Atlanta.

         

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

League MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes essentially outplayed Brady at Gillette Stadium with 352 passing yards and four touchdowns. The problem was, the Chiefs star also threw two interceptions, which turned out to be the difference in an extremely competitive game.

The Patriots also had a difficult time covering wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who led the Chiefs with seven catches for 142 yards and three touchdowns.

Hill's ability as a runner in addition to a receiver could be the difference on the frozen field at Arrowhead Stadium, where the game-time temperature could struggle to reach double digits.

          

Patriots vs. Chiefs NFL betting pick

New England has won seven of the past 10 meetings with Kansas City straight up but failed to cover the spread in three of the last four games between the teams.

The Chiefs are playing for a Super Bowl berth for the first time in 25 years, and a player who is not even old enough to remember that is the key.

Mahomes, 23, is the most exciting player in the NFL and capable of making throws the 41-year-old Brady can only dream of right now.

Go against the computer on this one and wager on Mahomes and Kansas City to win and cover in front of the home fans to advance to the Super Bowl.

       

OddsShark computer pick: 27.4-25.7, Patriots (Get NFL picks on every game via the OddsShark computer)

         

NFL betting trends

The Patriots are 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the Chiefs.

The total has gone under in 11 of the Chiefs' last 14 games at home.

The total has gone under in eight of the Patriots' last 10 games.

             

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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