The Gambler's Guide: Week 7 College Football Picks

After an improvement in Week Six, the Gambler's Guide is rejuvenated. 

Five of our seven picks were spot-on—even if only three winners were against the spread. 

Week Seven shouldn't be as upset-laden as the past two weeks, but the Gambler's Guide has two—count 'em TWO—upset specials. 

First, though, the rest of the week's action:

#25 Tennessee @ Mississippi State

Favorite: Tennessee -7

Pick: Mississippi State

Analysis 

Talk about going out on a limb—and a small, shaky limb at that. 

Tennessee could very well be back in the SEC East race after dismantling Georgia last week, but I'm not buying it.  Sylvester Croom and Mississippi State have already surpassed last year's total of three wins, with an upset at Auburn along the way.

This game will unfold one of two ways:  Tennessee wins by two touchdowns on cruise control... or the Bulldogs make it closer than the experts think it'll be. 

I'll take the latter. Go with Mississippi State.

#1 LSU @ #17 Kentucky

Favorite: LSU -9

Pick: LSU

Analysis 

My reasoning is simple: LSU beats South Carolina 28-16 at home.  Kentucky loses to South Carolina 38-23 at home. 

If Cats' QB Andre' Woodson had trouble with the Gamecocks defense...he ain't seen nothing yet. 

Tigers win big—take LSU.

#4 Boston College @ Notre Dame

Favorite: Boston College -14

Pick: Notre Dame

Analysis

Another one of those "feeling" picks for me. 

Yeah, QB Matt Ryan has Boston College off to a great start, and yeah, Notre Dame is horrible this year.  But coming off an impressive win against UCLA, I think the Golden Domers will be ready to play. 

The ND defense is improving, and the offense has nowhere to go but up. While I don't expect the Irish Dame to win here, I think they could keep it within two touchdowns.

Take Notre Dame.

#11 Missouri @ #5 Oklahoma

Favorite: Oklahoma -10

Pick: Oklahoma

Analysis

The Sooners know they gave away all their wiggle-room by losing to Colorado—another defeat and those National Championship dreams are dead. 

The last time OU and Missouri played, Oklahoma stifled the Tigers' running backs, and every Mizzou play was either a Chase Daniel pass or a Chase Daniel run.  I look for the same thing to happen this year.

OU will wear Missouri out in the second half and win going away. Take Oklahoma.

UPSET SPECIALS

Louisville (+10) over #15 Cincinnati

Iowa (+3.5) over #18 Illinois

Analysis 

These games are similar in two ways:

Both underdogs are teams that have failed to play up to high expectations, and both favorites are teams that have come out of "nowhere." 

I'm not sold on Cincinnati and Illinois—not yet.  I AM, however, sold on Louisville and Iowa needing to win these games for the sake of their programs. 

Take both underdogs.