
Bold Predictions for NFL Free Agency
Free agency is an opportunity for NFL players to turn the tables on team owners.
The open market allows them to maximize their personal worth while choosing where they want to play. However, those life-changing decisions are rarely easy.
If a player leaves his current team, fans will lambaste him for not showing allegiance. If he stays, he runs the risk of not fully capitalizing on his market value.
Either way, free agency is poised to reshape the NFL landscape this offseason, particularly if the following eight moves come to fruition.
Roster Purge Coming for Reigning Super Bowl Champions
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One year after their memorable Super Bowl LII victory, the Philadelphia Eagles are in store for significant overhaul this offseason.
Philadelphia is currently a league-high $12.77 million over the projected 2019 salary cap, according to Spotrac. Not only will the Eagles not have room to re-sign their own free agents, but they'll likely have to release a few established veterans as well.
Cornerback Ronald Darby, linebacker Jordan Hicks, guard Chance Warmack, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, safety Corey Graham, special teams standout Chris Maragos, running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles, defensive ends Brandon Graham (pictured) and Chris Long, wide receivers Golden Tate and Mike Wallace and kicker Jake Elliott aren't under contract for next season. Philly won't be able to pick up quarterback Nick Foles' $20.6 million option, either.
The Eagles can save nearly $10.7 million by turning down their 2019 option for left tackle Jason Peters. They would free up an additional $7 million by releasing defensive end Michael Bennett. Cutting backup offensive lineman Stefen Wisniewski would save $3 million more.
Financial flexibility is a staple for long-term success, but Eagles are lacking in that area.
One thing is certain: Next year's roster will look dramatically different than this season's.
Nick Foles Reinvents Jaguars as Super Bowl Contenders
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Erratic quarterback play coupled with numerous injuries helped to destroy the Jacksonville Jaguars' once-promising season. Fresh off their AFC Championship Game loss to the New England Patriots, the Jags started this year 3-1, only to lose seven straight game and plummet out of the playoff race.
Jacksonville benched quarterback Blake Bortles for Cody Kessler in Week 12, but Kessler couldn't even hold down the starting gig for four full games. After Bortles relieved Kessler in Week 16, he's now in line to start in the Jaguars' season finale against the Houston Texans.
This offseason, Jacksonville must upgrade at quarterback to have any chance of making it back to the playoffs in 2019.
Cutting Bortles won't be cheap. If the Jaguars do so before June 1, they'd save only $4.5 million and have $16.5 million in dead cap. Releasing him past June 1 would save them $9.5 million and cost $11.5 million in dead cap. Either way, he shouldn't be in Jacksonville next season.
From there, the Jaguars can go one of two routes. They can either use a top-10 pick to select their quarterback of the future—they currently own the ninth overall pick—or they can pursue veteran options in free agency or via trade. Given where the team currently stands, the latter approach makes more sense.
Signing reigning Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles would make Jacksonville an instant contender. The Jaguars would remain a run-first offense, but they could implement more run-pass options to play complementary football with Foles and running back Leonard Fournette in the backfield.
Before pursuing Foles, Jacksonville would have to make moves elsewhere. Like the Eagles, the Jaguars are currently over the projected 2019 salary cap.
But without competent quarterback play, Jacksonville isn't going anywhere in 2019.
Teddy Bridgewater Returns Home to Replace Ryan Tannehill
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As multiple teams search for quarterbacks this offseason, Teddy Bridgewater will be the most intriguing free agent available.
The 26-year-old was well on his way to becoming the Minnesota Vikings' franchise signal-caller before he suffered a devastating knee injury. He also played well for the New York Jets in limited opportunities this preseason. Since the New Orleans Saints clinched home-field advantage in the NFC on Sunday, Bridgewater figures to play most if not all of their regular-season finale as well, according to The Athletic's Larry Holder.
Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers will serve as Bridgewater's showcase before he enters free agency. He'll have the option to remain in New Orleans if he's willing to wait for Brees to retire, but he may entertain other possibilities.
A return to his hometown of Miami might sound too good to be true. However, the Miami Dolphins have reached the point where Ryan Tannehill's standing as the starter has grown tenuous.
"Everybody is always going to blame the quarterback," Dolphins head coach Adam Gase said after his team's 17-7 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday, per the South Florida Sun Sentinel's Safid Deen. "We just need everybody doing their job, then you can really evaluate the quarterback. We haven't had the consistency we need on offense to look at what Ryan really is. Nobody helps him, then he starts to try to do more than he should, and that hurts him."
Gase's excuses only make matters worse. Tannehill is not the type of quarterback who can carry or elevate an offense. If the Dolphins don't know who he is, that's on the organization, not Tannehill or his teammates.
With the Dolphins expected to select in the middle of the first round in April, signing a young, high-upside quarterback in free agency is a smarter approach than hoping one falls into their laps during the draft.
Texans Pay Top Dollar to Protect QB Deshaun Watson
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If a team has its franchise quarterback in place—which the Houston Texans do with Deshaun Watson—the next step is to acquire reliable protection and skill-position talent.
While the Texans have offensive weapons in DeAndre Hopkins, Lamar Miller and Keke Coutee, they have failed to protect Watson, who has been sacked a league-high 56 times.
As a mobile quarterback who extends plays, Watson shoulders some of that blame. But the majority of Houston's pass-protection issues stem from an offensive line incapable of slowing opposing pass-rushers even after signing Senio Kelemete, Zach Fulton and Seantel Henderson this past offseason.
Left tackle has been a sore spot in particular. Julie'n Davenport is the NFL's worst blindside protector, and Houston's coaching staff can only do so much schematically to protect him.
Quality offensive tackles won't be plentiful this offseason. There will be a few solid options, though.
Trent Brown is the most intriguing and logical choice. His understanding of the New England Patriots offense would help him transition seamlessly into Bill O'Brien's scheme, and he's only 25.
While left tackle is the Texans' biggest concern, they have the seventh-most projected salary-cap space with $68.5 million. The team could use upgrades at all five line positions and should double down by adding a quality free-agent center like Mitch Morse or right tackle like Daryl Williams.
The Texans must protect Watson at all costs.
Le'Veon Bell Becomes Focal Point of Jets Offense
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A quarterback's best friend can be a reliable rushing attack.
New York Jets rookie signal-caller Sam Darnold has been exceptional since he returned from a right foot injury. In his past three games, he completed 66 percent of his passes for 764 yards, six touchdowns and only one interception. According to Pro Football Focus, Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts is the only quarterback with a higher grade than Darnold since Week 10.
However, the Jets rank 24th this season in total rushing offense and are third-to-last with an average of 3.9 yards per carry. Isaiah Crowell isn't a three-down back, and Bilal Powell is heading into free agency.
Darnold can't do it all. His wide receiver corps is suspect as well. But the perfect solution will be available to the Jets this offseason.
Le'Veon Bell sat out the entire 2018 season in a contract dispute with the Pittsburgh Steelers. His message hasn't changed over the last two years: He wants to be paid commensurate with his overall value as a lead runner and No. 2 or No. 3 receiver.
Few teams have enough available cap space to meet Bell's demands. Right now, Todd Gurley of the Los Angeles Rams is the league's highest-paid back at nearly $14.4 million per season. Bell is seeking more than $17 million annually, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
That demand severely limits his options. However, the Jets are projected to have more than $106.8 million in available cap space.
The 26-year-old Bell would immediately become the focal point of the Jets offense as a runner, but he'd also improve the passing attack. Wide receiver Robby Anderson leads the Jets with 47 receptions. Bell has 45 or more receptions in all but one of his five seasons, including three 75-plus-catch campaigns.
A backfield featuring Darnold and Bell would make the Jets offense far more potent.
Larry Fitzgerald Leaves Arizona to Play Elsewhere
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Larry Fitzgerald made himself clear this past offseason when asked about his future.
"If I'm not playing in Arizona, I won't be playing anywhere," the wide receiver told Jace Frederick of the Pioneer Press. "I've built a good life for myself down there. Playing in the same place for 15 years is a true blessing."
Circumstances change and ultimatums can fade. Fitzgerald already has a spot reserved in the Pro Football Hall of Fame once he becomes eligible. His performance Sunday in a 31-9 loss to the Los Angeles Rams sure felt like an end of an era, though.
"It may. It may not," he said about the possibility of it being his last home game, per the Arizona Republic's Bob McManaman. "NFL careers end every Sunday. I'm just blessed to be able to play the game I love."
Fitzgerald also admitted he's "frustrated at work."
The 35-year-old receiver is still playing well, with a team-leading 65 receptions for 698 yards and five touchdowns. But the Cardinals have a league-worst 3-12 record and are likely to undergo a second coaching change in less than a year, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
If Fitzgerald doesn't plan to retire, he should reconsider his unwillingness to play for another team. Playoff contenders like his hometown Minnesota Vikings or the Pittsburgh Steelers—where he played in college—make far more sense for him than a rebuilding Cardinals squad. The New England Patriots are always alluring for aging veterans trying to cash in the chance to compete for a Super Bowl, too.
Whatever the case, Fitzgerald shouldn't waste his final years toiling away in the desert.
"If I decide to retire, I'll let you guys know," Fitzgerald told reporters last week, per the Cardinals' official website. "Man, seriously. So, I don't understand why we keep asking these questions."
Colts Splurge by Signing Dee Ford, Tyrell Williams
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The Indianapolis Colts will be the envy of the NFL with a league-high $122.8 million in available salary-cap space this offseason.
With franchise quarterback Andrew Luck in place and an offensive line that's now properly protecting him, the Colts can concentrate on other areas, specifically edge-rusher and wide receiver.
Multiple defensive linemen will cash in this year. Even if Grady Jarrett, DeMarcus Lawrence, Sheldon Richardson and Ndamukong Suh stay with their respective teams, the Colts should have other options from which to choose.
Dee Ford of the Kansas City Chiefs stands out as one such possibility.
Ford's career-high 12 sacks are tied for eighth leaguewide, while his 29 quarterback hits are tied for third. He could be the Colts' primary edge-rusher opposite Jabaal Sheard, Tyquan Lewis or Kemoko Turay. And for what it's worth, Colts general manager Chris Ballard was part of the Chiefs front office that drafted Ford.
Familiarity should help the Colts attract another quality free agent in Tyrell Williams. Colts head coach Frank Reich served as the then-San Diego Chargers offensive coordinator when Williams earned a roster spot as an undrafted free agent.
The free-agent wideout class isn't great, but Williams is 6'4" and has a massive catch radius. His 16.2 yards-per-catch average ranks ninth among wide receivers with 30 or more receptions. He'd be an ideal complement to the speedy, field-stretching T.Y. Hilton.
Indianapolis has the financial flexibility to sign whomever it prefers. Ford and Williams fit what the Colts need most.
Frank Clark Fortifies Browns' Defensive Front
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After finding a franchise quarterback in Baker Mayfield, the Cleveland Browns may become enticing for top free agents.
Cleveland has three years before it must discuss a long-term extension with Mayfield. In the meantime, it already has a significant number of talented young players on the roster and plenty of money to spend.
The Browns' $80.6 million in projected salary-cap space ranks fourth behind the Colts, Jets and Bills. Cleveland is only one or two pieces away from owning an elite defense. It needs a consistent pass-rush presence—opposite Myles Garrett or along the interior—to complete its front seven.
Seattle Seahawks defensive end Frank Clark is tied for eighth leaguewide with a career-high 12 sacks. The 25-year-old pass-rusher, who played at Glenville High School in Cleveland, has 31 sacks and counting since the start of the 2016 season.
If the Browns signed Clark, they could shift Emmanuel Ogbah to 3-technique if he adds a little weight. Otherwise, Ogbah can serve as a rotational defensive end. He and Clark can work together since the latter plays both inside and outside.
At the moment, the Browns' top priority should be to maximize their cornerstones on their roster. If Clark becomes available—which is no sure thing—he's an ideal candidate.
A sub-package front four consisting of Garrett at defensive end, Genard Avery working off the other edge, Larry Ogunjobi at 1-technique and Clark inside at 3-technique would be downright scary.
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