College Football Bowl Picks 2018: Schedule and Predictions for Upcoming Action
More than anything, college football bowl season gifts fans the opportunity to watch several teams they have more than likely never watched before.
While that often provides exciting matchups we wouldn't otherwise see, it also makes games more difficult to accurately predict. Now more than ever, teams throughout college football are heading into their bowl games without star players who are opting to protect their bodies ahead of the NFL Draft.
For instance, Stanford is only a 6.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh in the Sun Bowl, per OddsShark. The absence of star running back and 2017 Heisman candidate Bryce Love, who announced on Twitter that he will skip the Sun Bowl in order to "focus on being completely healthy and prepared for the 2019 NFL Draft," could absolutely make a touchdown's worth of difference.
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The physical health of each team is important in any game, but teams each approach bowl games differently. One team could treat it like a national championship, while the other team is disappointed it didn't make the College Football Playoff.
Even with all of this in mind, we have to try. Below is a look at the remaining bowl schedule with picks and a deeper dive into potential upsets to keep an eye on.
Note: all times are Eastern, and all odds courtesy of OddsShark.
Schedule and Predictions
Wednesday, Dec. 19
DXL Frisco Bowl (8 p.m., ESPN): San Diego State vs. Ohio - 34-31, Ohio
Thursday, Dec. 20
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl (8 p.m., ESPN): Marshall vs. South Florida - 41-31, USF
Friday, Dec. 21
Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl (12:30 p.m., ESPN): FIU vs. Toledo - 45-38, Toledo
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (4 p.m., ESPN): Western Michigan vs. BYU - 42-21, BYU
Saturday, Dec. 22
Jared Birmingham Bowl (12 p.m., ESPN): Memphis vs. Wake Forest - 48-40, Wake Forest
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl (3:30 p.m., ESPN): Houston vs. Army - 28-24, Army
Dollar General Bowl (7 p.m., ESPN): Buffalo vs. Troy - 24-13, Buffalo
SoFi Hawai'i Bowl (10:30 p.m., ESPN): Louisiana Tech vs. Hawaii - 35-27, Hawaii
Wednesday, Dec. 26
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl (1:30 p.m., ESPN): Boston College vs. Boise State - 21-20, Boise State
Quick Lane Bowl (5:15 p.m., ESPN): Minnesota vs. Georgia Tech - 23-17, Georgia Tech
Cheez-It Bowl (9 p.m., ESPN): California vs. TCU - 23-10, California
Thursday, Dec. 27
Walk-On's Independence Bowl (1:30 p.m., ESPN): Temple vs. Duke - 21-6, Temple
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (5:15 p.m., ESPN): Miami vs. Wisconsin - 17-9, Miami
Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl (9 p.m., ESPN): Baylor vs. Vanderbilt - 34-21, Vanderbilt
Friday, Dec. 28
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (1:30 p.m., ESPN): Purdue vs. Auburn - 32-28, Purdue
Camping World Bowl (5:15 p.m., ESPN): West Virginia vs. Syracuse - 44-23, Syracuse
Valero Alamo Bowl (9 p.m., ESPN): Iowa State vs. Washington State - 28-24, Washington State
Saturday, Dec. 29
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (12 p.m., ESPN): Florida vs. Michigan - 34-20, Michigan
Belk Bowl (12 p.m., ABC): South Carolina vs. Virginia - 20-13, South Carolina
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl (1:15 p.m., CBS Sports Network): Arkansas State vs. Nevada - 40-38, Nevada
College Football Playoff Semifinals
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (4 p.m., ESPN): Clemson vs. Notre Dame - 48-17, Clemson
Capital One Orange Bowl (8 p.m., ESPN): Alabama vs. Oklahoma - 51-38, Alabama
Monday, Dec. 31
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman (12 p.m., ESPN): Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech - 35-22, Cincinnati
Hyundai Sun Bowl (2 p.m., CBS): Stanford vs. Pittsburgh - 28-21, Pittsburgh
Redbox Bowl (3 p.m., FOX): Michigan State vs. Oregon - 37-20, Oregon
AutoZone Liberty Bowl (3:45 p.m., ESPN): Missouri vs. Oklahoma State - 49-41, Oklahoma State
San Diego Credit Union Holiday Bowl (7 p.m., Fox Sports 1): Northwestern vs. Utah - 32-23, Utah
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl (7:30 p.m., ESPN): NC State vs. Texas A&M - 34-20, Texas A&M
Tuesday, Jan. 1
Outback Bowl (12 p.m., ESPN2): Mississippi State vs. Iowa - 23-13, Mississippi State
VRBO Citrus Bowl (1 p.m., ABC): Kentucky vs. Penn State - 27-20, Penn State
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl (1 p.m. ESPN): LSU vs. UCF - 41-34, UCF
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual (5 p.m., ESPN): Washington vs. Ohio State - 48-27, Ohio State
Allstate Sugar Bowl (8:45 p.m., ESPN): Texas vs. Georgia - 23-10, Georgia
Monday, Jan. 7
College Football Playoff National Championship (8 p.m., ESPN)
Biggest Potential Upsets
UCF (+7) over LSU
In case you're somehow unaware, the UCF Knights are on a 25-game winning streak—the longest active stretch in the country—and last season beat a then No.7-ranked Auburn in the Peach Bowl. It goes without saying, then, that UCF won't at all be intimidated by No. 11 LSU, especially considering the Knights are No. 8.
The looming fact is the absence of junior quarterback McKenzie Milton, who has been out since brutally injuring his leg on Nov. 23 against South Florida. In the AAC Championship game, freshman quarterback Darriel Mack Jr. stepped in and convincingly led UCF over Memphis. He finished with 348 passing yards and two passing touchdowns plus four more touchdowns on the ground.
It's a story as old as time: SEC defenses are good. However, while LSU will be the best defense UCF has faced this season, both teams' defenses are averaging about the same points allowed per game—20.9 for LSU and 21.3 for UCF—which makes defense a wash in theory. Keep in mind, though, that LSU's average is distorted slightly by the 74 points given up to Texas A&M in the regular-season finale.
Defenses aside, LSU does not have the same athletic ability in junior quarterback Joe Burrow, who only has six more touchdowns (12) on the entire season than Mack Jr. totaled in one game (six). Will the LSU offense be able to keep up with the Knights?
We have seen varying answers to that question from LSU throughout the season–scoring 72 points on A&M and zero against Alabama. UCF's defense ranks below both of those teams' in total defense, so logic would suggest LSU could have a field day. But put simply: LSU's offense just doesn't inspire confidence.
The best chance for UCF will come through the ground game between Mack Jr. and running backs Greg McCrae and Adrian Killins Jr. Combined, McCrae and Killins Jr. have rushed for 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns this season.
This game feels like it will come down to which team will execute—or allow—more explosive plays, and UCF gets the edge.
Syracuse (+1) over West Virginia
First things first: West Virginia star senior quarterback Will Grier announced that he will not play in this game, as he is starting his preparations for the 2019 NFL Draft. In his place under center, we'll likely see sophomore Jack Allison.
Allison has not started and attempted just 10 passes this season. It goes without saying, but that is a major blow to the Mountaineers. It's impossible to scout how this offense will produce without Grier.
So, we'll focus on Syracuse. The Orange have put together a very impressive season, finishing 9-3 and giving No. 2 Clemson one of its closest calls back in Week 5 at Death Valley. That said, more recently on Nov. 17, No. 3 Notre Dame throttled the Orange by 33 points. Which team will show up in Orlando?
One thing is for sure: Senior quarterback Eric Dungey will be under center for Syracuse. There might be lingering concerns about back spasms, but any concern should have been put to bed when Dungey went for six touchdowns against Boston College days after spending a night in the hospital.
To recap, one team is without its biggest star, while the other team will have all of its playmakers and the Mountaineers are only favored by one point. Take that chance every time.
Purdue (+3.5) over Auburn
Let's get this out of the way: Purdue did not finish the regular season strong. In the final three weeks, the Boilermakers dropped games to Minnesota and Wisconsin before finishing with a seven-point win over 5-7 Indiana.
Auburn also finished the final three games 1-2, but those two losses came against more formidable opponents in Georgia and Alabama.
The reasons we're even having this upset conversation
? The teams Purdue has beaten. While Auburn has lost to three ranked teams (LSU in addition to Alabama and Georgia), Purdue has beaten all three ranked opponents this season. Most notably, of course, upsetting then-No. 2 Ohio State 49-20 in Week 7.
Ohio State is a better team than Auburn, so who's to say the Boilermakers can't beat the Tigers by at least four points? The Purdue offense is potent—even putting up 38 points on a No. 7-ranked defense in Iowa.
On paper, senior quarterback David Blough has had the better season. Blough has 25 touchdowns to just eight interceptions, while Auburn junior quarterback Jarrett Stidham has 13 touchdowns to five picks. Blough also has a little over 1,000 more passing yards than Stidham, and that speaks to the weapons he has at his disposal—namely freshman wide receiver Rondale Moore who has seven 100-yard receiving games this season.
As previously mentioned, a factor in every bowl game is the approach each program takes. That includes the happenings within a program after the regular season: coaches get fired, take jobs at other programs but remain for a bowl game, on and on. That narrative applies here.
Jeff Brohm has been publicly adamant about his commitment to the Boilermakers after receiving heavy interest from Louisville, his alma mater. Meanwhile in Auburn, head coach Gus Malzahn's future isn't as crystal clear.
While he could accept a buyout and is not technically on the hot seat yet, his support within and surrounding the Tigers is iffy. How will that affect the way his team plays for him in Nashville? Auburn is disappointed by a 7-5 season—the fourth average season since 2013 under Malzahn—while Purdue is excited about trending upward.
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