Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistDecember 12, 2018

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - DECEMBER 09: Amari Cooper #19 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his second touchdown with Dak Prescott #4 against the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium on December 09, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images

Since picking up wide receiver Amari Cooper, who's scored five touchdowns over the last three weeks, the Dallas Cowboys are 5-1 both straight up and against the spread. The Cowboys hope to continue along that same trail when they hit Indianapolis to take on the Colts in an interesting interconference matchup on Sunday afternoon.

   

NFL point spread: The Colts opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.0-18.8 Colts (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas just extended its winning streak to five in a row with a 29-23 overtime victory over Philadelphia last week. The Cowboys scored the first nine points of the game but later allowed the Eagles to force OT with a touchdown with just over minute left in regulation. But Dallas then drove the opening possession of overtime 75 yards to a game-winning touchdown and covered as a 3.5-point favorite.

On the day, the Cowboys piled up 576 yards of total offense, held Philly to just 256 yards, owned a 32-16 advantage in first downs and dominated time of possession by a 46-23 split. However, three Dallas turnovers and a missed field goal helped keep that game closer than it should have been.

The Cowboys have now out-gained each of their last three opponents and outrushed their last five foes. At 8-5 overall, Dallas can clinch the NFC East title with a win Sunday.

   

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis just rebounded from that ugly loss at Jacksonville two weeks ago to top a hot Texans team in Houston last week, 24-21. The Colts spotted the Texans the first seven points of the game, then scored the next 17 to take a lead they would not relinquish. In the end, Indianapolis let Houston get within three points with two-and-a-half minutes to go but ran the clock dry from there.

On the day, the Colts out-gained the Texans 436-315. So Indianapolis has now out-gained nine of its last 10 opponents.

The Colts are also 4-2-1 ATS their last seven games. At 7-6 overall, Indianapolis trails 7-6 Baltimore by just a tie-breaker in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.

    

Smart betting pick

Both these teams are playing some good ball as of late, but come crunch time the Cowboys own the better running game and the better defense, and that should make the difference. Smart money here likes Dallas, for the outright win.

    

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in three of the Cowboys' last four games vs the Colts.

The total has gone under in the Colts' last four games. (Avg combined score: 37.5)

The Cowboys are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games on the road after consecutive home games.

    

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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