Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Minnesota Vikings own the edge in the recent rivalry with the Green Bay Packers, going 4-1-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread over the last six meetings, although a couple of those victories came with Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines.

Who's the smart bet for Sunday night's Vikings-Packers clash in Minneapolis?

NFL point spread: The Vikings opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.8-17.0 Vikings (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay hopes to bounce back this week after taking a tough 27-24 loss at Seattle last Thursday night.

The Packers actually took advantage of an early Seahawks fumble to score the first touchdown of the game, and they led 14-3 after one quarter and 24-20 midway through the fourth.

But they gave up a Russell Wilson touchdown pass to fall behind, then made the questionable call to punt on a fourth-and-short with about four minutes to go and couldn't get the ball back.

On the night, Green Bay got outgained by Seattle, but only by a margin of 378-359.

The Packers are now just 1-3 SU over their last four games but 2-1-1 ATS. Green Bay had chances to win all four of those games, with some against good opponents on the road, like the Rams and Patriots.

At 4-5-1 overall, the Packers are only one game behind Minnesota in the battle for the second NFC wild-card spot.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings are also hoping to bounce back this week after falling at Chicago on Sunday night 25-20.

Minnesota trailed the NFC North-leading Bears 14-0 at the half, pulled to within 22-14 with five minutes left and within five points in the last minute, but it could not recover an onside kick.

The Vikings produced 268 yards of total offense but only gave up 308. Minnesota also lost a fumble inside the Chicago red zone, threw an interception from the Bears' 32-yard line and tossed a killer pick-six in the fourth quarter.

Heading into last week, the Vikings had outgained each of their previous five opponents, going 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in the process. At 5-4-1 overall Minnesota owns the No. 6 spot in the NFC playoff standings.

Smart betting pick

These teams played a 29-29 tie back in September, but Green Bay actually outplayed Minnesota that day and had the game won but for a roughing penalty on Clay Matthews. This game should be close, too, and a few points might come in handy.

The smart money here takes the Packers and the points.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in six of the Packers' last eight games versus the Vikings.

The total has gone under in eight of the Vikings' last 11 games at night.

The Vikings are 6-1-1 SU in their last eight games versus divisional opponents.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.