Navy Midshipmen vs. UCF Knights Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 8, 2018

ORLANDO, FL - SEPTEMBER 21:  McKenzie Milton #10 of the UCF Knights warms up during a game against the Florida Atlantic Owls at Spectrum Stadium on September 21, 2018 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Alex Menendez/Getty Images)
Alex Menendez/Getty Images

Central Florida owns the longest winning streak in major college football at 21 in a row, which includes a 14-6-1 run against the spread. The Knights are heavily favored to make it 22 in a row when they battle Navy on Saturday afternoon in Orlando.


College football point spread: The Knights opened as 27-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 48.6-24.0 Knights (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Navy Midshipmen can cover the spread

Navy actually started 2-1 this season, with a win over a Memphis team that recently gave Central Florida a good scare. But the Midshipmen reached a nadir last week with a 42-0 loss at Cincinnati, their sixth defeat in a row.

At 2-7 on the season Navy will miss a bowl, but they're trying to create some momentum they can carry into next season.

Two weeks ago, against their toughest opponent so far this season, the Midshipmen fell down to Notre Dame 27-0 before pulling to within 37-22 in the fourth quarter and losing 44-22. However, they pushed the spread as 22-point 'dogs. Three weeks ago they led a pretty good Houston outfit 24-14 well into the second quarter before fading in a 49-36 defeat. And just before that Navy led a good Temple team 17-7 in the third quarter before losing 24-17.


Why the UCF Knights can cover the spread

UCF remained one of the last four undefeated teams in FBS with a 52-40 victory over Temple last Thursday. The Knights trailed the Owls 34-28 at the half, then drove the opening possession of the second half 66 yards for a touchdown and a lead they would not relinquish. Near the end Central Florida created great goodwill toward its financial backers, kicking a field goal with a minute-and-a-half left to cover the spread as a 10-point favorite.

On the night the Knights piled up 35 first downs and 630 yards of total offense, 318 on the ground and 312 through the air.

Central Florida is now 5-1 ATS over its last six games, covering spreads of 14, 13, 25, 21 and 10 points. The Knights are also 24-6 SU and 19-10-1 ATS in games McKenzie Milton has started at quarterback.

At 8-0 overall this season UCF is rated No. 12 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. The Knights hold only a slim chance of making the CFP even if they win out from here, but it wouldn't hurt to run up the score whenever they can, just in case.


Smart betting pick

UCF beat Navy last year 31-21, covering as a seven-point favorite, and will win this game, too. However, the Knights have a key matchup with Cincinnati next week, and may be tempted to rest key people once this game is in hand. And playing at home means the spread is probably inflated by several points.

It's not easy backing a team that just lost 42-0 but smart money here takes the Midshipmen and the points.


College football betting trends

The total has gone under in four of Central Florida's last five games.

The total has gone under in seven of Navy's last 10 games on the road.

Navy is 0-8 SU in its last eight games on the road.


All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.