NFL Week 10 Picks: Game-by-Game Over/Under Predictions

Kristopher Knox@@kris_knoxFeatured ColumnistNovember 7, 2018

NEW ORLEANS, LA - NOVEMBER 04:  Quarterback Drew Brees #9 of the New Orleans Saints runs with the ball during the second quarter of the game against the Los Angeles Rams at Mercedes-Benz Superdome on November 4, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana.  (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

We had some intriguing games in the ninth week of the NFL season, and we also had some interesting scores. Five different games reached 50 total points, and one even hit the 80-point mark. At the same time, we had two games fall short of 40 total points, and one didn't even hit 20.

High-scoring games are common in 2018, but there are always outliers. This is why playing the over/under can be a bit tricky. Factors like scoring trends, defensive matchups, coaching trends and injuries must be taken into account—and even then, a fluke score or turnover can ruin the best predictions.

We're here with our best over/under predictions for Week 10. We'll run down the full schedule and the latest lines and over/unders from OddsShark. We'll also make score predictions for each game and examine our top over/under picks of the week.


NFL Week 10

Carolina Panthers (+4, 51.5 O/U) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Panthers 24, Steelers 20

Detroit Lions (+6.5, 45 O/U) at Chicago Bears: Bears 23, Lions 17

Arizona Cardinals (+16.5, 49.5 O/U) at Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs 31, Cardinals 18

New England Patriots (-6.5, 46.5 O/U) at Tennessee Titans: Patriots 28, Titans 18

New Orleans Saints (-5, 54 O/U) at Cincinnati Bengals: Saints 36, Bengals 22

Atlanta Falcons (-4, 50.5 O/U) at Cleveland Browns: Falcons 30, Browns 23

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 46.5 O/U) at Indianapolis Colts: Colts 24, Jaguars 22

Washington Redskins (+3, 51.5 O/U) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Redskins 28, Buccaneers 26

Buffalo Bills (+7.5, 37 O/U) at New York Jets: Jets 18, Bills 13

Los Angeles Chargers (-10, 50 O/U) at Oakland Raiders: Chargers 28, Raiders 17

Miami Dolphins (+9.5, 47.5 O/U) at Green Bay Packers: Packers 27, Dolphins 18

Seattle Seahawks (+10, 51 O/U) at Los Angeles Rams: Rams 31, Seahawks 23

Dallas Cowboys (+6.5, 43 O/U) at Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles 24, Cowboys 21

New York Giants (+3, 44 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers: 49ers 23, Giants 20


New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals: OVER 54

Because the Cincinnati Bengals are likely to be without star wide receiver A.J. Green, you may be tempted to go with the under here. Green is considered week-to-week with a toe injury.

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter

He will not need foot surgery, but Bengals’ WR AJ Green is expected to miss at least two games before doctors re-evaluate his foot injury to determine when he can play again, per source.

Not having Green will hamper the Cincinnati offense, which is already without tight end Tyler Eifert. Still, the Bengals are set to get Giovani Bernard back from injury and can shape their offense around Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd.

Cincinnati will score its fair share of points.

The reason we like the over here, though, is the New Orleans Saints offense. Drew Brees and Co. are on a roll and just dropped 45 points on the Los Angeles Rams. The Bengals defense isn't as talented as L.A.'s—it's actually allowing a league-high 447.8 yards per game—and while Cincinnati will have home-field advantage, it's also going to have trouble slowing Brees.

The Saints might not hit 45 again, but the potential to do so will certainly be there. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is averaging 27.6 points per game, and even if we take away a touchdown for Green's absence, this one should hit the over.


Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns: OVER 50.5

The Atlanta Falcons offense seems to be finding its rhythm. Atlanta is averaging 28.5 points per game and has topped 34 points in two of the last three contests. Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley make up a nearly unstoppable receiver trio, and Matt Ryan is back to playing at an MVP-caliber level.

Atlanta will face what has been a good Cleveland Browns defense in Week 10, but that defense was ravaged by injuries last week. Safety Damarious Randall and linebacker Joe Schobert missed the game, while cornerbacks Denzel Ward and E.J. Gaines left it along with linebacker Christian Kirksey and safety Jabrill Peppers.

With the defense undermanned, the Browns surrendered 499 yards of offense and 37 points to the Kansas City Chiefs last week.

"It is never easy, but it is never an excuse," interim Browns coach Gregg Williams said of the injuries, per the team's official website.

Cleveland's defense won't be at 100 percent, and that will open things up for the Falcons offense. At the same time, we can expect the Browns to do some scoring of their own against an Atlanta defense ranked 29th in scoring (28.2 points per game allowed) and 28th in yardage (412.8), largely because of its own injuries.


Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers: UNDER 47.5

The Miami Dolphins offense hasn't exactly been humming along lately. Losing receiver Albert Wilson to a hip injury has impacted the deep-passing game, and backup quarterback Brock Osweiler has been merely serviceable in place of Ryan Tannehill.

According to ESPN's Cameron Wolfe, Tannehill (shoulder) will be out at least another game, possibly longer:

Cameron Wolfe @CameronWolfe

News on Ryan Tannehill wasn't great today: Adam Gase said he's still been inconsistent throwing with trainers. Some have been good and others he feels discomfort. Mentioned it's weird. Hope was to get him back right after bye week, but that doesn't sound like a guarantee either.

This Dolphins offense put up a mere six points against the New York Jets last week, though the defense did chip in with a touchdown. It doesn't feel likely that Miami is going to go on a scoring spree against the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau.

If this game is going to hit the over, it's going to come thanks to the Packers offense. While Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have the ability to rattle off points, high scoring hasn't exactly been a trend this season.

That offense will be without wideout Geronimo Allison as well.

Aaron Nagler @AaronNagler

Packers announce they have placed Geronimo Allison on injured reserve, released Jermaine Whitehead & signed cornerback Will Redmond. Busy afternoon.

Green Bay averages 24 points per game. Miami, meanwhile, has been held to 21 points or less five times this season and its season high on the road is just 23 points. This game isn't going to be a track meet, and it should stay on the underside of 48.