NFL Week 8 Betting Guide: Odds, Props and Picks

The Houston Texans beat the Miami Dolphins 42-23 at NRG Stadium on Thursday Night Football and have won five straight games after starting 0-3.

Houston is now in the AFC South driver's seat and a game-and-a-half clear of the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Texans are beating expectations, including those of the sportsbooks. Houston itself nearly beat the entire game's over/under total of 45 points, per OddsShark. The Texans also more than doubled the point spread of seven-and-a-half.

We'll see where the Texans go from here, but until then, here's a look at a Week 8 NFL betting guide, including spreads to bet, over/unders to monitor and the lock of the week.

Money-Line Picks and Picks Against the Spread

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Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-7.5, 45 O/U): Texans -7.5 and -350

Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 43 O/U) at Jacksonville Jaguars in Wembley Stadium, London: Eagles -3 and -175

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 44 O/U) at Carolina Panthers: Ravens -2.5 and -150

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8, 49 O/U): Steelers -8 and -340

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 53.5 O/U): Chiefs -9.5 and -425

New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-8, 44 O/U): Bears -8 and -355

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3, 49 O/U): Lions -3 and -157

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 54.5 O/U): Bengals -3.5 and -175

Washington Redskins (-1, 43.5 O/U) at New York Giants: Redskins -1 and -115

Indianapolis Colts (-3, 50.5 O/U) at Oakland Raiders: Colts -3 and -150

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (-9, 57 O/U): Packers +9 and +330

San Francisco 49ers (-1, 41.5 O/U) at Arizona Cardinals: Cardinals +1 and +105

New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 52.5 O/U) at Minnesota Vikings: Saints -1.5 and -125

New England Patriots (-13.5, 44 O/U) at Buffalo Bills: Patriots -13.5 and -1100

ML Season Record: 62-44-2

ATS Season Record: 50-52-6

Stay-Away Games

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Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 44 O/U) at Carolina Panthers

Good luck picking a winner.

The Ravens defense, which allows a league-low 4.5 yards per play, should give the Panthers some problems. Furthermore, Baltimore has the game's best kicker in Justin Tucker, who has made 90 percent of his career field-goal attempts.

However, Carolina is at home after a 4-2 start. While the defense hasn't done as well as in previous seasons (e.g., the team ranks in the bottom half of the league in sacks after ranking third in 2017), perennial Pro Bowler Luke Kuechly still mans the middle, and the recent addition of safety Eric Reid and the return of Thomas Davis from suspension certainly help.

On offense, both teams have players who can break the game wide-open with explosive plays.

For the Ravens, that's wide receiver John Brown, who is averaging the third-most yards per reception this season (19.9).

In the past three games, Curtis Samuel has been that player for the Panthers thanks to a 25-yard catch-and-run and 14-yard rush for scores. Quarterback Cam Newton and running back Christian McCaffrey can do the same.

Will any of them make big-time plays Sunday? Like calling this game, that's hard to predict.

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 52.5 O/U)

The Saints and Vikings are on fire. New Orleans has won five straight, while the Vikings are winners of three consecutive contests after a sluggish 1-2-1 start.

Their offenses have been the catalysts for their respective successes.

In his 18th season, 39-year-old Drew Brees has completed a career-high 77.3 percent of his passes while throwing 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. New Orleans is second in points scored per game (34) and sixth in yards per play (6.2).

For Minnesota, free-agent quarterback Kirk Cousins has defied lofty expectations by completing 70 percent of his passes for 14 touchdowns (to three interceptions). Wideout Adam Thielen is the story, however. He's surpassed 100 receiving yards in each of his seven games.

The Vikings offense overall has been mediocre (14th in points per game), but Minnesota is at home and facing a Saints team that has allowed the seventh-most points in the league (27.2 per game).

This matchup seems like a coin flip. Brees and Cousins may just go blow for blow, with the win going to the team that last possesses the ball.

Prop Bets You Can Take to the Bank

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Total Halves Won: Oakland Raiders (0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+145)

The Raiders will be without their former No. 1 wide receiver (Amari Cooper) and their No. 1 running back (Marshawn Lynch). Cooper is a Dallas Cowboy after the Raiders traded him for a first-round pick Monday, and Lynch is on injured reserve with a groin injury.

Martavis Bryant and Doug Martin will step into the lineup for those two. Oakland cut Bryant before the season, but the team re-signed him a couple of days after its first regular-season game. He has just 14 catches for 220 yards this year.

Martin was excellent earlier in his career as a member of the Buccaneers, but he's averaged just 3.0 yards per carry since the beginning of the 2016 season.

The Raiders encountered offensive struggles even with Cooper and Lynch (the team scored just 13 points over their last two matchups). They are in clear rebuilding mode and looking toward next year.

Couple that with a struggling defense (29.3 points allowed per game), and a Raiders victory is difficult to envision. 

Winning Margin: Indianapolis Colts (1-13) at Oakland Raiders (+150)

The Colts crushed the Bills 37-5 last Sunday. Running back Marlon Mack now leads a resurgent rushing attack, as the second-year pro gained 159 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns.

The team is also getting healthy after suffering an inordinate amount of injuries. Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star tweeted that this game marks the first time this season the Colts will have quarterback Andrew Luck, Mack, T.Y. Hilton, tight ends Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron and left tackle Anthony Castonzo on the field all at once.

Regardless of the injury situation, the Colts hang tough in every game, losing none by more than two scores. They have the edge on the field against Oakland, so take Indy's winning-margin prop (one to 13 points).

The Colts could win by 14 or more, but they are traveling into a tough road environment with a raucous fanbase. Oakland isn't the easiest place to play.

Spreads to Bet

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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8, 49 O/U)

The Browns are going in the wrong direction after losing at home to the Los Angeles Chargers 38-14 and dropping a 26-23 overtime game to the Buccaneers, who had just fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith after the team allowed the most points per game in football (Tampa Bay is still last in that category).

Cleveland is also without middle linebacker Joe Schobert, who is battling a hamstring injury and will miss his second straight game. The third-year pro is the team's leading tackler despite missing Week 7.

The 2-4-1 Browns now travel to Pittsburgh, a place where Cleveland hasn't won since 2003—a year before Ben Roethlisberger took over at quarterback.

Pittsburgh started slowly at 1-2-1 (including a 21-21 tie with the Browns), but the Steelers have pulled themselves together after two straight wins and are in first place in the AFC North.

Giving eight points is tough, but this has the makings of a blowout. Take the Steelers with confidence.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 53.5 O/U)

The Broncos just crushed the 1-6 Cardinals 45-10, but how noteworthy is that game? Arizona has been dreadful and fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy a day after (Byron Leftwich took over).

Before that win, Denver was just 2-4 after losing four straight. The Broncos had allowed rushing performances of 200 or more yards to Rams running back Todd Gurley (208) and Isaiah Crowell of the Jets (219).

Now they are facing another solid runner in Kansas City's Kareem Hunt, who rushed for a season-high 121 yards (on 19 carries) against Denver in Week 4. Hunt gets the Broncos at home in the midst of a hot streak: He's had 326 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns in his past two games.

The Chiefs (6-1) have been great all year, and they are coming off a 45-10 victory over the Bengals (4-3). Hunt should lead K.C. to a dominant win.

Line Movement

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New York Jets at Chicago Bears: Bears -7 to -8

The two big spreads in football are three and seven points: If you see a spread move off one of those totals, that means sharp money has been wagered on one side.

That's the case in the Jets-Bears game, as Chicago has moved from a seven- to an eight-point favorite.

The reasoning seems simple: The Jets just lost running back Bilal Powell and safety Doug Middleton for the season and will likely be without wideout Robby Anderson (ankle), cornerback Trumaine Johnson (quadriceps) and center Spencer Long (lower leg), who are all doubtful.

Meanwhile, the Bears have scored 107 points in their last three games after posting just 63 in their first three.

The defense has taken a step back in its last two games, allowing 31 points to the Dolphins and 38 to the Patriots, but the Bears should do fine at home against a short-handed Jets offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals: 53.5 O/U to 54.5 O/U

This is one of two Week 8 games with an over/under of 50 or more to jump a full point.

The Tampa defense did well in its first game under new defensive coordinator Mark Duffner last Sunday, but the Cleveland offense hasn't gotten much going (the Browns are third-to-last in defense-adjusted value over average, per Football Outsiders).

As noted before, Tampa has given up the most points per game, so we'll see how the defense does on the road against a better offense.

The Cincinnati defense hasn't done much better, though, as the team has allowed 23 or more points in six of seven games.

An offensive shootout is possible, even if the Bucs offense has trouble running the ball (3.6 yards per carry, 30th in the league). Tampa still has six reliable pass-catchers with varying skill sets, including Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and tight end O.J. Howard, and they help the Bucs move the ball down the field with ease.

Cincinnati has a deadly pass-catching trio: running back Joe Mixon and wideouts A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. They have largely been the reasons for the team's success. That group and quarterback Andy Dalton should give Tampa some problems.

Easy Over/Unders

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Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars in Wembley Stadium, London: Under 43 Points

The Jaguars offense is in shambles, scoring seven points each against the Cowboys and Texans and 14 against the Chiefs in the past three games. Quarterback Blake Bortles has more turnovers (11) than touchdown passes (nine) and was benched mid-game in Week 7.

Bortles is back under center against the Eagles, who are top-10 in fewest running back yards allowed per carry. Sans injured No. 1 running back Leonard Fournette, the Jags' best bet may be to attack an Eagles secondary that is roughly middle-of-the-pack in passing yards allowed per attempt (7.2). That may not work out well given the Jags' recent passing struggles.

The Eagles offense has been inconsistent, however. Philadelphia lost a 17-0 home lead on the way to a 21-17 defeat to the Panthers in Week 7, and that hasn't been the team's only example of poor offensive play.

Of note, the Eagles scored just 14 points at home against the Vikings before a late touchdown and the extra point in the last minute made the final score of 23-21 more respectable.

Now they face a Jaguars defense that has done well; Jacksonville allows just 4.8 yards per play (second-fewest in the league).

Look for both teams to struggle to hit 20 points.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants: Under 43.5 Points

Washington will be without wideout Jamison Crowder, who is out Sunday with an ankle injury. Crowder led the team with 66 catches and 789 yards last season. Overall, the offense hasn't been particularly explosive, as the 'Skins are just 25th in points scored per game (21) and 28th in yards per play (5.2).

Meanwhile, the Giants offense has struggled. The offensive line has stumbled in run and pass blocking all season, while 15th-year quarterback Eli Manning has regressed behind it. In a year of offensive explosion in the NFL, New York is scoring under 20 points per game (the league average is 24.1).

Both defenses may be on the right track after strong Week 7 performances, however.

The 'Skins held superstar running back Ezekiel Elliott to 33 yards on 15 carries in Sunday's victory over the Cowboys, while the Giants went on the road and slowed down the high-scoring Atlanta Falcons, holding them to 23 points Monday.

Expect a low-scoring NFC East battle, with Washington coming away with the win.

Value Bets

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+105)

This is a bet that the change at offensive coordinator will finally get the team off the ground.

The team moved on from Mike McCoy and gave the reins to quarterbacks coach Byron Leftwich, who started his NFL coaching career under ex-Arizona head coach Bruce Arians.

The Cardinals offense was mostly fantastic in Arians' five seasons, finishing top-12 in scoring three of five times. In the other two years, quarterback Carson Palmer suffered injuries that forced him to sit out 19 games, while running back David Johnson missed nearly the entire 2017 season after he broke his wrist in Week 1.

Leftwich's key will be getting Johnson close to his form in 2016, when he led the league in total touchdowns and yards from scrimmage.

In a recent press conference, Leftwich spoke about Arians' influence and how it would affect his plans for Johnson. In essence, if he uses Johnson more in the passing game and with outside runs (as Arians did) instead of dives up the gut, the fourth-year pro could be rejuvenated and lead the Cardinals on a mini-comeback.

Look for that to start Sunday against the 49ers, who have allowed the second-most points per game (31.1) this season.

Green Bay Packers (+330) at Los Angeles Rams

The Packers are nine-point underdogs, but they could just as easily win outright. Would anyone be that surprised if quarterback Aaron Rodgers goes into Los Angeles and tosses 400 yards and four touchdowns in a Green Bay victory?

Also, the Packers running game could get going: The Rams run defense has allowed 4.7 yards per carry (tied for 25th in the league), and Green Bay running back Aaron Jones has 5.9 yards per carry. Jones sees fewer than 10 touches per game, but this is clearly a time to get him going.

On the flip side, how will the Packers defense stop the undefeated Rams, who haven't been slowed down much at all? L.A. is third in points scored per game (33.6), although starting wideout Cooper Kupp is doubtful with an MCL sprain.

Still, Rodgers can go blow for blow with the Rams attack, and the Packers are getting healthier, with potential returns for cornerback Jaire Alexander and wideouts Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb (only Cobb is listed as questionable). At +330 (bet $100 to win $330), the value on Green Bay is tough to pass.

Sucker Bet

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New England Patriots (-1100) at Buffalo Bills

Let's get one thing out of the way: Buffalo has next to no shot at this game. The Patriots are on a roll as winners of four straight, and quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski always make the Bills miserable when they face them in Western New York.

Furthermore, Bills running back LeSean McCoy had not cleared concussion protocol as of Friday, and backup Chris Ivory has been limited this week with a hamstring injury. The team has already ruled out starting quarterback Josh Allen with an elbow injury.

However, the Bills won as 16.5-point underdogs to the Vikings on the road. They've been down this path before.

Maybe they'll get a lucky break at the beginning and get a wild Bills Mafia going. Maybe the Buffalo team that disappeared last Sunday reappears this Monday and shows the form that allowed just 56 points in a 14-quarter stretch earlier this year.

None of that will likely happen, but bettors need to lay $1,100 to win $100. That's a terrible value. Avoid this money line.

Lock of the Week: Detroit Lions (-3, -157) over Seattle Seahawks

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The increased usage of Lions running back Kerryon Johnson, who has rushed for 6.4 yards per carry this season, is the primary reason for backing his team as the lock of the week.

Johnson only had 12.6 touches per game through five weeks, but that number ballooned to 21 on Sunday, when he gained 179 yards from scrimmage and led the Lions to a 32-21 road win over the Dolphins.

In Detroit's three losses, the team has given Johnson the ball an average of 10.3 times. That number jumps to 17.7 in victories. The formula is simple: The more Johnson gets the ball, the better.

Seattle has won three of its past four games and has found success running the ball behind a backfield led by Chris Carson. However, the Lions run defense just got tougher with the addition of Damon "Snacks" Harrison, whom the team acquired in a trade with the Giants. The nose tackle is one of the best run-stoppers in football and can help slow down the Seattle attack.

The Seahawks do get the extra benefit of bye-week rest, but Detroit is at home and was just as hot in its past four contests. Look for the Lions to win by a few scores.

All money lines, spreads and over/under totals are via OddsShark and accurate as of Saturday at 1 a.m. ET. All other bet types are through Oddschecker and accurate as of Saturday at 1 a.m. ET.