Bleacher Report Expert Predictions for Week 9 in College Football
Will Week 9 of the college football season be the calm before the November storm, or are things going to get as wild as ever?
Five of the AP Top 11 teams—Alabama, LSU, Michigan, UCF and Ohio State—don't even play this gameweek, so there shouldn't be that much chaos. Even if teams like Clemson, Notre Dame or Oklahoma suffer shocking losses as huge favorites, we're at least guaranteed to end the week with six teams (the five on a bye and the winner of No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 9 Florida) that have strong cases for being in the College Football Playoff.
On the other hand, of the 20 ranked teams in action, 16 are playing away from home and two are hosting ranked foes. That's quite the recipe for an upset buffet.
Our college football experts—Matt Hayes, David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Brad Shepard and Ian Wharton—have once again offered up predictions on some of the hardest-hitting questions of the week, including:
- Who wins the battle for SEC East supremacy?
- Will No. 2 in the AP poll take an L for a third straight week?
- Can undefeated South Florida improve to 8-0?
- Which running back in the Heisman Trophy conversation rushes to the head of the class?
- And how many touchdowns will Kyler Murray account for against Kansas State?
The experts are on the case.
Will No. 7 Georgia or No. 9 Florida Win World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party?
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Matt Hayes (Twitter: @MattHayesCFB)
Here's the thing: Georgia isn't as bad as it showed against LSU, and Jake Fromm has a history of ratcheting up his play after a poor game (see: response to Auburn loss last year). Though the Dawgs aren't nearly as disruptive on defense as they were last season, they'll protect the ball, Fromm will play better, his backup Justin Fields will have a couple of critical series, and Florida won't have enough to keep pace with the Georgia offense.
David Kenyon (Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR)
Fromm looked awful in that loss to LSU. Worst day of his college career, and it's not particularly close. But I'm not panicking just yet, because I think the bigger test is Florida QB Feleipe Franks against a tough Georgia secondary. Florida will likely rely heavily on its quick-passing game, so creating after the catch will be vital unless Franks successfully tests UGA downfield. And I don't see that happening.
Adam Kramer (Twitter: @KegsnEggs)
First and foremost, I'm glad we're calling this name by its original, rightful title. Yeah, they're trying to tell you it's no longer the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, but deep down you know it's still very much that.
Anyway, I will take Georgia. I don't feel particularly solid in that, but I believe the overall talent of the Bulldogs will prevail. That said, Florida's resurgence has been one of the best stories of the college football season. Dan Mullen will be up for this and will likely keep it close. But I feel like Georgia will find a way, and I could see Fields playing a significant role in that, some way or another.
Kerry Miller (Twitter: @kerrancejames)
LSU has completely screwed up my feeling about both of these teams. Take out Florida's win over the Tigers and Georgia's loss to them, and I'd probably pick the Bulldogs to win this game by at least three touchdowns. I'm still picking Georgia—but not confidently. The X-factor will be third-year running back Elijah Holyfield. D'Andre Swift hasn't had anywhere near the breakout year everyone was expecting, but Holyfield has emerged as a bruiser who Georgia can turn to when it desperately needs a first down.
Brad Shepard (Twitter: @Brad_Shepard)
I've gone back and forth on this one for much of the week. Everything screams to pick the Bulldogs, but I'm a big Mullen believer. The way he has the Gators playing is impressive. Just when you think they aren't a dynamic team, they beat LSU. Just when you think they're going to show their true colors against a bad team like Vanderbilt, they come roaring back. This team has staying power, so this game should be a lot closer than some people think.
But I believe Fromm is going to rebound for the Bulldogs. Last year around this time, he started to elevate his game. If he has a big game against the Gators, it can kick-start his season. It's going to be a back-and-forth defensive battle, but I like Fromm to make one more play in the end. I'll say Georgia wins 24-16.
Ian Wharton (Twitter: @NFLFilmStudy)
Georgia is in the midst of a brutal stretch, but it is coming off a bye week. That will be the key difference in this game, as head coach Kirby Smart had time to self-evaluate and retool how they blocked (or rather didn't block) for Fromm against LSU. Florida will present a similar challenge and certainly has a good shot to win. But I trust the Bulldogs more than I trust the Gators to create big plays when needed.
The AP No. 2 Team Has Lost in 2 Straight Weeks: Does Clemson Make It 3?
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Matt Hayes
Not a chance. FSU is (more) damaged on the offensive line, and the defensive line just happens to be Clemson's strength. That and the Clemson offense is beginning to find itself under freshman QB Trevor Lawrence. By December, the only offenses in the College Football Playoff race talented enough to keep up with Alabama score-for-score will belong to Clemson and Oklahoma.
David Kenyon
No, it seems the Clemson team everyone was expecting has finally arrived, save for one final piece: the pass rush. If there's ever a moment for that to change, it's against an offensive line that has surrendered the fourth-most tackles for loss in the country. Even if FSU QB Deondre Francois recognizes the pressure and gets rid of the ball—as he's done well this season—it's unlikely the Seminoles have enough offense to keep up.
Adam Kramer
No, but it wouldn’t shock me if Florida State hangs around in this one. Since starting off the season in somewhat heinous fashion, the Seminoles have bounced back to a degree.
The disparity in this game, however, will be between Clemson's defensive line and Florida State's offensive line. That matchup, in particular, won't be favorable to the Seminoles, to say the least. And ultimately, those disruptions will be enough to give the Tigers an edge.
Kerry Miller
Everyone is going to talk about how badly Clemson's D-line is going to manhandle Florida State's O-line—and with good reason. But the 'Noles have a respectable front seven of their own, allowing just 2.6 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns on the season. Travis Etienne might be neutralized a little bit.
And for as much as we all love Lawrence, it bears mentioning that this road game will probably be the first time he's on the field in the fourth quarter of a game decided by fewer than four touchdowns. There might be some true freshman jitters. I still think Clemson wins the game, but this one will be mighty interesting until the end.
Brad Shepard
Don't look now, but Florida State is sneaking back toward respectability after the Seminoles looked to be in shambles early. The rest of the season is a meat grinder for Willie Taggart's team, as it plays Clemson, North Carolina State, Notre Dame, Boston College and Florida. There are possibly two wins in there, but even that may be a stretch for the 4-3 'Noles.
This weekend, they'll play well and keep things close for a while. But, in the end, Clemson has too much depth, too much talent, and too much offensive balance now that Lawrence is getting comfortable. Etienne has three three-touchdown games this year, and he may just have another one in him. FSU is going to make this one interesting for a while, but Clemson will wind up pulling away and winning something like 38-27.
Ian Wharton
No. I thought Clemson would lose last week, but the Tigers have been a much more complete team over the last two games. They're suddenly playing to their potential after struggling to find their full footing early on. Florida State won't be able to score nearly enough with their offensive line woes against the Tigers' powerhouse defensive line. This game will be decided before the fourth quarter.
Who You Got for the Big One in the Big Ten: No. 18 Iowa or No. 17 Penn State?
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Matt Hayes
Trace McSorley has to get more help from his receivers as well as from the defense. Every Penn State game can't come down to "let's see what Trace can do this time." There is no safety blanket like DaeSean Hamilton was last year and there is no consistent deep threat to stretch defenses. This one could get ugly.
David Kenyon
My head says Penn State. My gut is pushing me toward Iowa because I'm not convinced Penn State's passing game can do enough, especially if Juwan Johnson isn't healthy. Even if he plays, the feeling is he'll be limited. Turnovers are the big concern for the Hawkeyes, who have at least one giveaway in five straight outings. Too many of those and the Nittany Lions will win. But I'm sticking with my gut and taking the Hawkeyes.
Adam Kramer
Having Iowa ties, if I pick Iowa, I will be considered a homer, yes? Well, as much as I would like to be labeled a homer, I will take Penn State.
This might be the most talented Iowa team Kirk Ferentz has had since the Hawkeyes went to the Rose Bowl in 2016. That said, this is a brutal environment to play in, a difficult quarterback to defend and a good game overall.
This matchup has been plenty weird over the years. (Who could ever forget the 6-4 game in 2004?) I expect it to be close once again, and it feels like Iowa could be within a field goal at the conclusion. This might be the best game of the weekend. Penn State 24, Iowa 21.
Kerry Miller
I like the Hawkeyes in this one. Iowa has quietly had one of the stingiest defenses in the nation, particularly against the run. And Penn State's defense just allowed 554 yards to Indiana in what almost became the Nittany Lions' third consecutive loss. Nate Stanley has a big day against a pedestrian secondary, and the Hawkeyes' front seven bottles up Miles Sanders and McSorley just well enough to pick up a huge road win.
Brad Shepard
Penn State is overrated. The Iowa defense is legit, and it will face a formidable test this week in McSorley, who is the best quarterback they will face this season. I think the Hawkeyes are playing at a high level right now, and Ferentz has a plan. I also believe Stanley can do some things no other Hawkeyes quarterback has been able to do. Iowa is going to win this game in an ugly, Ferentz-patented manner.
Ian Wharton
I'll take Iowa. Unlike last week's trudge-fest between Michigan and Michigan State, the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions should create a game that closer resembles modern football. Both teams are solid despite not being elite playoff contenders. The Hawkeyes' fifth-ranked scoring defense has been most impressive. The Nittany Lions' dreadful third-down conversion rate is going to haunt them again this game, and it'll be the difference in a tight matchup.
Does South Florida's Quest for Perfection End in Houston?
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Matt Hayes
Here comes the heavy lifting for USF. After beginning the season 7-0, the Bulls should be underdogs in four of their final five games. While USF is solid on offense and can score at least 30 in any AAC game, the defense is average at best. That means zero mistakes from the offense. And that means I'm going with Houston QB D'Eriq King (32 total TDs) and the Cougars getting just enough stops to win it late in the fourth quarter.
David Kenyon
Yes. Both defenses are fine. Not bad, not great, just fine. Only one offense has been consistently dominant, and that's Houston. The Cougars have crested the 40-point barrier in every game behind King, who has 23 touchdowns through the air and provides a bit of a mobile threat. USF is plenty talented, but matching Houston's pace is extremely tough.
Adam Kramer
This is the best game of the weekend your friend has no intentions of watching, so I ask you do your part to get them to tune in. One loss between them—check. Best defensive player in football, Ed Oliver—check. That is all you need, really.
But South Florida has been skating by, and Houston, while by no means a perfect product, has found a star in King. We should really be talking about him more than we are. I think we will after this week. At least we better be. Houston by 17.
Kerry Miller
South Florida might be the most fraudulent 7-0 team ever.
The Bulls gave up 600 yards to Georgia Tech but somehow backed into a win. They needed huge fourth-quarter comebacks to beat both Illinois and Tulsa. They only managed nine first downs against East Carolina. And—perhaps most unforgivable of all—they didn't blow out Connecticut. Meanwhile, Houston has scored more than 40 in every game this season. So, yeah, give me the Cougars at home and give them to me by a wide margin, laying the groundwork for a huge AAC championship clash with UCF.
Brad Shepard
Yes, it does. I would love nothing more than for the Bulls and the UCF Knights to run the table and meet in a season finale that could determine a major bowl game for the winner, including a potential College Football Playoff berth for Central Florida. But Houston ended the bid by Charlie Strong's team for a spotless season a year ago, and they've got the winning formula in this game.
Last weekend's 38-30 win over UConn was a win in name only and exposed some of the Bulls' flaws. Blake Barnett is a good quarterback, but he commits too many turnovers. The defense has some playmakers but also allows too many big plays. Those will hurt against King and Houston.
Ian Wharton
Yes. Houston's offense has been overwhelming every defense thus far, even in the loss to Texas Tech. King leads the nation in total touchdowns for good reason. He has thrived in Kendall Briles' downfield scheme due to his arm strength and ability to quickly spot where the numbers advantage is. South Florida would need to dramatically improve its defense to win this game, as it's ranked 88th in yards and 63rd in points allowed per game. Keeping it status quo will lead to a loss.
Which Heisman Candidate Rushes for the Most Yards: Etienne, Snell or Taylor?
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Matt Hayes
I'm going with Benny Snell Jr. Not because Missouri's run defense is questionable—it's pretty good—but because Kentucky desperately needs this game to set up the biggest football game in the Commonwealth since Bear Bryant roamed the sidelines (Nov. 3 vs. Georgia). The UK defense will get a couple of turnovers, and Snell will wear down a tired Missouri defense. Like it or not, that's Kentucky's offense.
David Kenyon
Since each of the runners has a relatively tough matchup, I'm not expecting any of them to destroy a box score. However, Missouri hasn't allowed a run of 30-plus yards, and Florida State has ceded just one. That leaves me to pick Taylor against Northwestern, which is still a decent run defense but not quite at the levels of Missouri and FSU.
Adam Kramer
I love Snell, but I actually like Missouri's run defense and think it will be up for this game.
Etienne has the highest ceiling, considering he has run for 14 touchdowns on only 98 carries. He's averaging more than eight yards per carry. He seems like a potential candidate to score the most touchdowns of the group, as he has done for much of the year.
But give me Taylor. Even though Wisconsin could have a tough one on its hands, he'll still do his usual damage. He will probably carry the ball 28 times and do the heavy lifting for Wisconsin.
Kerry Miller
I've got to go with Snell, because I think Kentucky is going to win at Missouri, and there's no way that happens unless Snell has a mammoth performance. There won't be any "home run" plays in Snell's big day. He has only had three carries of more than 30 yards all season, and Mizzou has yet to allow any such runs. But it's going to be his typical six-yard gain after six-yard gain type of outing that just wears the opposition down.
Put him down for 165 yards, two touchdowns and another week of everyone in Lexington asking why in the world he isn't neck-and-neck with Tua Tagovailoa in the Heisman conversation.
Brad Shepard
Northwestern isn't a good football team, but coach Pat Fitzgerald's boys can make things tough on running backs when they key on them. They'll take Taylor out of the equation for a huge game against the Wildcats. Florida State has the ACC's top-ranked run defense, so Etienne is going to have a hard time breaking 100 yards this week in what looks like a Clemson win on paper.
That leaves Snell, who is basically Kentucky's entire offense. The Wildcats will need to throw the ball a little to beat Missouri, but the offense is still going to center around Snell. Terry Wilson has been awful in the vertical game, and in a matchup like this, you know Mark Stoops is going to dance with the horse that has his team sitting at 6-1, and that's Snell. He'll get a lot of carries and he'll produce. But Mizzou will win the game.
Ian Wharton
Taylor easily has the best matchup, but I'll take Snell against Missouri. Mizzou is favored in the game, which is surprising to me, considering how much Drew Lock has struggled in recent conference games. Kentucky will feed Snell and need him to have an efficient performance with some chunk gains. Etienne could have a well-timed Heisman moment against the stout Seminoles defense if he drops another 200-yard game, though.
Will Both No. 15 Washington and No. 14 Washington State Win in California?
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Matt Hayes
Yes. Washington hasn't exactly played to its potential this fall, and that could be an issue in a testy road game at Cal. But the game plan is simple: run the ball.
Then there's Washington State—maybe the best surprise of the season. Stanford is not a team that scores big early; the Cardinal want to wear teams down in the fourth quarter. But Wazzu can score quick and early. One thing that keeps sticking out: all of those wide-open Arizona State receivers last week against Stanford that Sun Devils QB Manny Wilkins couldn't find. Cougars QB Gardner Minshew II will.
David Kenyon
Yes for Washington, no on Wazzu. Both games should include one-score margins, though. I'm really interested in the first game. Cal has allowed more than 350 yards only once, and Washington's pitiful 51.2 red-zone touchdown rate is bad news on the road. I'm still trusting the Huskies defense, but there's clear upset potential here.
Adam Kramer
No. Washington will take care of Cal on the road. The Huskies are a few plays away from being unbeaten—easy to say, I know—and my confidence in the team is still probably higher than it should be. That is not something I can say about Cal, even though the Golden Bears got back on track last weekend against Oregon State.
If there was ever a spot for a football hangover, though, Washington State is in that spot. Coming off a huge win at home against Oregon, Stanford might be a problem. No, the Cardinal haven't been great. But this is a matter of timing, and I could see Stanford edging out a team coming off one of the best Saturdays it has ever seen. Stanford 27, Washington State 20.
Kerry Miller
Washington will beat California, but Washington State is going to lose at Stanford, extinguishing what little hope the Pac-12 still has of being represented in the College Football Playoff.
The stats for that matchup would beg to differ. Wazzu has a drastically better pass defense than Stanford, and the Cardinal haven't been able to run the ball to save their lives. But I think the Cougars are going to have a bit of a letdown game after that emotional win over Oregon—similar to the one the Cardinal experienced after they beat the Ducks one month ago.
Brad Shepard
Yes. I don't think California is as bad as it has shown in recent weeks, even though playing Oregon State can make anybody look good. But the Bears aren't in the same class as Washington. The Huskies defense is the best in the Pac-12, and it will prove that against an overmatched Cal offense.
Washington State is legit, and I honestly think after last weekend's shellacking of Oregon in a game I did NOT see coming, the conference goes through Pullman. This is going to be a big test for the Cougars at Stanford, but the Cardinal aren't what they hoped they'd be. Bryce Love has been playing hurt all year, and Stanford is going to have to score points to hang with Mike Leach's team. In the end, I think Wazzu is going to be just too good offensively.
Ian Wharton
Yes. Both of their foes have fallen off after hot starts. Neither Cal nor Stanford has a reliable offense, which is a death knell against Washington and Washington State. The Huskies overwhelm all but a handful of teams with their athleticism on both sides of the ball, and that'll happen again. Meanwhile, Leach has unearthed a stud quarterback in Minshew. The Cougars can and will make a big statement with a win.
Does No. 6 Texas Keep Its Playoff Dream Alive at Oklahoma State?
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Matt Hayes
This isn't your grandfather's Oklahoma State (with Barry Sanders running for 2,850 yards in one season) or your brother's Oklahoma State (with the pass-happy offenses under Mike Gundy). This is a team that has struggled with inconsistent quarterback play from Taylor Cornelius, and a defense that can't get off the field. Texas will wear down the Cowboys no matter who plays quarterback (Sam Ehlinger or Shane Buechele).
David Kenyon
Throw out the numbers against Oklahoma—not because they're irrelevant, but because they're an outlier—and Texas has surrendered just 4.8 yards per snap this season. That type of defense travels. While Ehlinger's battered shoulder is a realistic concern, the Longhorns should be able to pick apart a below-average Oklahoma State secondary.
Adam Kramer
The point spread says probably. Or at the very least, let's call it a hard maybe. The fact that Texas is only hovering around a three-point favorite in this game seems somewhat bizarre. Although, given the totality of the season, maybe we shouldn't be surprised.
Sure, the ups for the Longhorns have been brilliant. A win over Oklahoma and a beatdown of USC serve as the highlights. But—and this is not to take anything away from a team that has come miles from where it was—maybe, just maybe, we're overrating Texas at the moment.
The last time we saw Oklahoma State, it lost pretty pitifully at Kansas State. The results all year are not exactly a football Picasso, which makes the oddsmakers' stance somewhat intriguing. I will take points and say Oklahoma State wins a close game at home.
Kerry Miller
While I'm still thoroughly unconvinced that Texas is the team to beat in the Big 12, I do believe the Longhorns are a lot better than Oklahoma State right now. The Pokes have lost three of their last four and didn't look that good in the win over Kansas. Even if Ehlinger is less than 100 percent and the Longhorns need to turn to Buechele, Lil'Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson will find more than enough openings to do work against this Oklahoma State defense. The final margin may be less impressive than most would expect when the No. 6 team faces an unranked foe, but I like the Longhorns by a touchdown.
Brad Shepard
It's hard to believe this is the same team that looked hapless to open the season in a loss to Maryland. Texas is having a fantastic year, and though you're just waiting on another one of those Tom Herman collapse games, it may not happen. Ehlinger is playing well more consistently, and the defense actually looks solid, too.
This is one of those scary games for the Longhorns that looks like a win on paper. But the Cowboys are capable of breaking out and throwing up a lot of points. Still, I think this Texas team is poised, and it is finding enough leadership to win close games. I like the Longhorns to win ahead of a huge home game against West Virginia.
Ian Wharton
The Longhorns sure will. Stillwater isn't an easy place to perform, but Ehlinger's return will give them the boost needed to overcome the hostile road crowd. The Longhorns will be the next defense to stifle the inconsistent Cowboys offense. They have more talent and speed than any foe the Cowboys have faced so far, and it'll be too difficult a talent gap to overcome.
Over/Under 4.5 Total Touchdowns for Kyler Murray vs. Kansas State?
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Matt Hayes
I'll take the over all day long. OU is full of injuries at the tailback spot, so Kyler Murray is the offense. That's going to mean airing it out and running a ton of zone read against a defense that has been way too inconsistent. The Wildcats could easily have five wins, but that doesn't mean they suddenly play their best game of the season and make it all better.
David Kenyon
Under. He gets four, though. Kansas State's pass defense is relatively efficient, so Murray's mobility will be important between the 20-yard-lines. That should open up the Sooners to feed their running backs inside the red zone. He's still heading toward 300-plus total yards for the day.
Adam Kramer
I'll take the over, which says a lot about how good Murray has played this year. He has already had four games when he scored at least five times, and he's done so in a handful of ways.
If this game were at Kansas State, I might reconsider. But at home, Murray has been particularly dominant all season long. I don't see any reason for that to change this week. Final stat line: 245 passing yards, 88 rushing yards, five touchdowns.
Kerry Miller
Give me the over. This is a "style points" game, both for Oklahoma in the CFP conversation and for Murray in the Heisman conversation. Tua Tagovailoa, Shea Patterson and Dwayne Haskins all have the week off. Will Grier plays on Thursday. Trace McSorley is facing a brutal Iowa defense. It's all about Murray this Saturday, and he's going to shine. I see him throwing for four touchdowns and rushing in two more in a 49-27 Sooners victory.
Brad Shepard
Under. Leave it up to Bill Snyder to find a rabbit in that old purple jacket that looks like a Starter from the early '90s. The Wildcats don't have the horses to hang with Oklahoma, but they can find a way to ugly up the game and make the Sooners work for it. I actually think OU is going to keep pushing the Kennedy Brooks button and will be happy with grinding this one out and winning while developing the ground game. The final will be something like 38-17, and Murray will finish with four total scores.
Ian Wharton
It's always tough to bet against such a good playmaker and coaching staff having a monstrous day, but I'll go under. The emergence of Brooks has been a game-changer for the Sooners running game. I expect as good a showing from Snyder's defense as possible—despite the vast difference in athleticism between the two teams—resulting in Lincoln Riley giving Brooks a big workload.
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